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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by wren

  1. I haven't lived in the UK for well over 10 years now. Is it really so ghastly? Is it the cost of living that's getting to you? The crime? I grew up in Kent, quite near where Sibley lives.
  2. I read somewhere that the Chinese working-age demographic peaks in size in 2015. Is this true, and if not when does it peak? China is approaching an age-demographic problem like many others.
  3. I think it would be best if the word "annual" always precedes deficit to emphasise the difference. Annual deficit. Total, cumulative debt.
  4. I would buy one ounce of silver per month for her. After 18 years that would be 216 ounces; if you paid some storage and insurance it might be whittled down to 160 ounces. In 18 years that could be worth from a quarter to half an average annual salary.
  5. If I understand correctly State pensions and other benefits are tied to inflation (don't know which index). What I would do is try to stoke inflation and fiddle the index, as they no doubt do anyway. This would provide massive "hidden" cuts. Sterling devaluation has already helped.
  6. The British parliament has a multi-party working group on peak oil. I forget its official name. They know about peak oil, of course, they have known. But they don't like to tell the public. They'd rather talk about green taxes.
  7. The social contract in the UK is that many young people are being screwed over and they should not care for it. Not by the design of the older generation but due to policies which thay have been too lethargic to oppose. Part of the problem is HPI, which will be corrected over a number of years. But the changes in the funding of education remain. I live in Finland where the educational funding has not been changed so young people have less of a gripe. There is a housing bubble here but it is beginning to deflate slowly (a bit of a dead-cat bounce like in the UK). Young people in the UK should protest the unfairness that you have explained well above. Interestingly the extra people who were at and are at university/polyversity were replaced in the workforce mostly by East Europeans. Timed well, otherwise wages might have gone up.
  8. Thanks for the insiders report. Shame to see frontline staff being made redundant. Let's hope they can concentrate on the unneeded middle management and admin.
  9. Above the box in which you type the message, click the little symbol which is one link of a chain. A little box pops up. Paste the URL into both boxes within that and say OK. The address appears in etc. to make it appear as a link.
  10. The UK government takes peak oil seriously. http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/leaders-at-closed-door-uk-meeting-on-“inevitable”-peak-oil-crisis-weigh-possible-solutions-to-energy-scarcity325/
  11. But people need to be able to save a bit so that once or twice a year they can buy clothes or shoes etc.
  12. Peak demand has already been declared in the American media. I've said for years that peak oil will not be televised. It will be recession, reduced demand, whatever. ASPO has been publishing detailed projections every month for over 8 years. Of course, they cannot predict precisely as the data is incomplete. The first Ph.D. thesis on the subject of peak oil was published last year at the University of Uppsala, Sweden. Since 2001 I have thought on the basis of various projections that the range 2006 to 2013 seemed most likely. That is a wide range, of course, reflecting the uncertainty. However, for me it is important to recognise that it is not 30 odd years away but less than 15, now much less than that. Time is of the essence.
  13. So is this for people on unemployment benefits? Any others?
  14. Old people need heating in the winter, come to think of it so do young people. Of course, reductions can be made. But will it be enough, quick enough? This will be in an environment of ongoing recession and ongoing decline in global oil production. Exporters will supply their own populace first to maintain social stability. So importers will see a decline in oil more rapid than the global rate. It won't even be possible for most to drive electric cars for many years because of the need for *extra* electricity plus the cars themselves plus many people poorer because of recession. North Sea oil production is in decline and UK natural gas production will be if not yet. The UK is at the end of the line for Russian natural gas. Mexico will cease to be an oil exporter in a couple of years. They had food demonstrations 2 years ago. The Mexican state could cease to function (parts are already controlled by local warlords, called drug dealers). So whether they can do enough fast enough to maintain a decent standard of living remains to be seen. Time will tell. If you flip the switch and there is no power, no amount of saying the French this, that and the other will make a difference. Except maybe make you hot under the collar. It's a matter of time, scale and indeed quality (or as some say, energy density).
  15. The problem is transitioning. Of course, there will be a lot more coal burnt and more nuclear power etc. But the new infrastructure and vehicles cost energy, raw materials and time. A new nuclear power station takes several years to build (Finland has suffered massive delays in getting its new one finished). The UK, owing to dismal planning, may suffer problems in electricity production by 2016. I suppose they'll just not decommission the power stations which they are supposed to.
  16. I read about these a few years ago. High-tech and much more efficient than the old-fashioned sailing ships.
  17. I'm not interested in getting into a deflation-inflation debate. Peak oil has nothing whatsoever to do with the purchasing power of paper or digital money tokens. It is much more fundamental. The problems of peak oil (fossil fuel supply) are not solved by barcoding everybody. No doubt there are some people who would like to do that if they can find a way.
  18. People can still exchange digital cash for real assets like farmland, gold etc. So if people favour real assets over digital or paper promises high inflation of those assets could occur. People can lose faith in digital cash just like they can lose it in paper money.
  19. At least the bankers got their salaries and bonuses. That's all that matters.
  20. Yes, most people can reduce their oil consumption quite easily because they waste a lot. Reduced consumption has already occurred (in First World countries) due to recession and higher unemployment. But it has knock-on effects to the rest of the economy. As petrol prices go up people spend more on petrol (even if they cut down a bit) and therefore spend less on other things hurting other businesses. The biggest problem in America is that apart from in a few older cities it is nigh on impossible to live without a car. The exburbs and long commuting distances made necessary gasoline consumption that much higher and the high gasoline prices probably sealed the HPC in America which is probably over half done now. In the longer term the real problem is that after peak oil the annual supplies of oil will continue to drop year after year without end. It isn't just a one-off 10% or 20% or 30% drop. It will be a trend of a few percent down a year every year indefinitely (probably with some up-and-down zigzagging around the trend).
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