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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by wren

  1. That doesn't look inflation adjusted to me when you look at the prices of gold for the same period when adjusted for inflation.

    The cost of houses in ounces of gold does not involve paper money nor paper money inflation. It's the number of ounces of gold per house (a ratio).

    Do you know why the real price of gold dropped from 1980 onwards? There were very strong and obvious reasons for it.

  2. Would anyone care to explain in layman's terms how events which are supposedly only likely to occur once in every several thousand years are in fact occuring with alarming frequency?

    Is there something 'wrong' with the maths?

    Bear in mind if you exceed more than 5 sentences or 1 paragraph I won't understand so your effort will likely be wasted. :)

    The probability distributions which they assume to apply are not accurate.

    The tails of the distributions (where the low-probability events lie) are fatter than their distributions assume. So unlikely events are actually more likely than they realise.

  3. I think there is a confusion between 2 things for public sector workers.

    1. How much they get paid

    2. Their cost to the treasury

    These are not the same thing.

    1. Is what it says on your payslip eg the £25,000 for the nurse.

    2. is the amount of money that leaves the treasury in total £18,750 (due to the notional 25% tax)

    If the tax rate was changed to 20%, the pay would still be the same (£25,000) but the cost to the treasury would increase (to £20,000)

    So a public sector worker pays tax, like everyone else. But that tax does not bring a net gain to the treasury.

    As you say public sector workers are not net contributors to tax revenues.

    Their paying tax is like (the State) giving with one hand and taking with the other. The same with all the indirect taxes, like VAT, which they pay: so long as the money comes out of their public sector salary these are not net contributions to tax revenues.

    It would be puerile to argue further about this.

  4. I remember when people though 50p a gallon was expensive. And it was.

    But relatively speaking, considering how much energy it contains and how useful it is, 120p a litre is still really cheap. I'd go so far as to say cheep, cheep.

    At what price will people seriously cut back, 180p a litre? I suppose the unemployed drive less which helps to reduce demand.

    An average of €1.44 per litre of 55 octane here in Finland. Some reckon it will need to go to €2.00 per litre for people to begin to cut back seriously. Of course, unemployment means people drive less. Traffic was down a couple of percent in early 09. Maybe unemployment or reduced employment has its positive aspects?

  5. It's a good idea to try to propagate the idea of a "Buyers' Strike" as a meme.

    Some sort of "strike" has been in effect, mainly because people are priced out. However, there must be cases where people were worried about the future trajectory of prices (up, down or flat?) and are holding back buying out of uncertainty.

    Although not a strike as such, people easily twig the concept of a "Buyers' Strike". Those with doubts might feel more confident about waiting to buy, the more they see others with the same idea that prices might well drop.

    So propagate the meme.

  6. UK house prices are still crashing, in every form of money other than Pounds.

    Until all this QE nonsense is ceased and artificial support by HMG withdrawn, house prices may only ever go up . . . in Pounds. Down in Dollars, Yen, Euros, locust skin futures, gold, pork bellys . . .

    Just for anybody who hasn't seen this graph (of course you have, noodle), UK housing is definitely dropping when measured in hard currency. The dead-cat bounce is just a volatility blip on this graph.


  7. Lets hope they arent still hanging in there in 10 years time and another 60K wasted on rent.

    I live in a small flat (with good tenancy rights here in Finland if you behave yourself).

    My rent used to be over an ounce of gold a month. Now it is about half an ounce. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes to one quarter of an ounce.

    Of course, the price in euros has gone up several percent in the last several years. The value of the flat (we have a housing bubble in Finland too) is probably flat and going to drop in euros.

    Sometimes, if family circumstances permit, it is good to rent.

    I'm happy renting anyway whatever the market is doing.

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