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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by wren

  1. Gold does badly when economic opportunities are moderate to good and inflation is mildly positive. Gold does well in bad economic times such as high inflation and deflation. The reason is that investors go to gold as a last resort when things look bad elsewhere.
  2. It's a tricky one but you can learn how to spell it. You know it begins Q and that q is mostly followed by U. QUE, then repeat the last 2 vowels. QUE-UE, queue.
  3. The cost of houses in ounces of gold does not involve paper money nor paper money inflation. It's the number of ounces of gold per house (a ratio). Do you know why the real price of gold dropped from 1980 onwards? There were very strong and obvious reasons for it.
  4. The probability distributions which they assume to apply are not accurate. The tails of the distributions (where the low-probability events lie) are fatter than their distributions assume. So unlikely events are actually more likely than they realise.
  5. What sort of stuff? Can you give us some examples?
  6. If you "reply" to his post you can see the code: Just remove the space after "spoiler" and before "]" to get the right code:
  7. Measured in hard currency UK house prices are in the middle of a severe crash.
  8. As you say public sector workers are not net contributors to tax revenues. Their paying tax is like (the State) giving with one hand and taking with the other. The same with all the indirect taxes, like VAT, which they pay: so long as the money comes out of their public sector salary these are not net contributions to tax revenues. It would be puerile to argue further about this.
  9. Measured in hard currency the UK HPC is definitely well underway.
  10. chris_ct posted this at GEI. Greek Curve Goes Apeshit: Bloomberg Reports 3 Month Bid At 21.3% http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greek-curve-goes-apeshit-bloomberg-reports-3-month-bid-213
  11. I remember when people though 50p a gallon was expensive. And it was. But relatively speaking, considering how much energy it contains and how useful it is, 120p a litre is still really cheap. I'd go so far as to say cheep, cheep. At what price will people seriously cut back, 180p a litre? I suppose the unemployed drive less which helps to reduce demand. An average of €1.44 per litre of 55 octane here in Finland. Some reckon it will need to go to €2.00 per litre for people to begin to cut back seriously. Of course, unemployment means people drive less. Traffic was down a couple of percent in early 09. Maybe unemployment or reduced employment has its positive aspects?
  12. Sinclair doesn't talk about silver. However, it is much more volatile than gold so potentially even more risky on margin. Long term I am bullish about both.
  13. Jim Sinclair ("Mr Gold") always says do not use margin with gold.
  14. It's a good idea to try to propagate the idea of a "Buyers' Strike" as a meme. Some sort of "strike" has been in effect, mainly because people are priced out. However, there must be cases where people were worried about the future trajectory of prices (up, down or flat?) and are holding back buying out of uncertainty. Although not a strike as such, people easily twig the concept of a "Buyers' Strike". Those with doubts might feel more confident about waiting to buy, the more they see others with the same idea that prices might well drop. So propagate the meme.
  15. Just for anybody who hasn't seen this graph (of course you have, noodle), UK housing is definitely dropping when measured in hard currency. The dead-cat bounce is just a volatility blip on this graph.
  16. I live in a small flat (with good tenancy rights here in Finland if you behave yourself). My rent used to be over an ounce of gold a month. Now it is about half an ounce. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes to one quarter of an ounce. Of course, the price in euros has gone up several percent in the last several years. The value of the flat (we have a housing bubble in Finland too) is probably flat and going to drop in euros. Sometimes, if family circumstances permit, it is good to rent. I'm happy renting anyway whatever the market is doing.
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