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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by ingermany

  1. BBC Breakfast with Bill and Sian. Main feature on a couple with a million pound house they can't sell who are trying to rafle it at 25 quid a ticket. So far have only sold 14 thousand tickets so they got a 7 minute slot on BBC with lots of photos of "this beautiful Property", "dream Home" lovingly described by Bill and Sian.
  2. I think the word "VICTIM" is not appropriate in this context. If you get killed in a plane crash you are a victim. if you borrow loads of money to buy stuff you never could afford then you're just greedy and selfish. I want the banks to get their (our) money back. I do not want to give charity to people who bought large houses and lavish lifestyles on credit and are now distressed at having to pay for what they bought. And, of course, there is no money for it anyway, but I fear that won't stop them trying.
  3. Wasn't there something about breaking their arms. I thought that was going a bit far. Fingers initially would be enough.
  4. It's not about blame. We will all grow old and die (hopefully in that order). When there were a lot of young adults in the demographic there was competition for housing. Soon this will stop, and there will be competition to find people to spoonfeed porridge and help oldies go to the toilet. It will be market forces. Old people with senile dementia don't need 5 bedroom houses with big gardens. That's as useful as a deisel 4x4 after the oil has run out. They will need carers. There will not be a housing shortage in 2030. There will be a severe carer shortage. The forces of supply and demand will make housing cheap and care expensive. It's not retribution, because it's nobodys' fault. The boomer generation can't claim credit for being so numerous that they pushed up house prices. And they can't be blamed for creating the inevitable flood of failing octogenarians that will overwhelm the social and medical care systems in the next decade. They got temporary benefit from the former, and they will ultimately suffer for the latter. For the long term, invest in old folks' homes, not houses and flats. As you get to pick the best paying residents you will then get the (rather sick) satisfaction of lecturing the older generation about sound fundamentals and under-supply.
  5. This is surely what will ultimately bring real house prices down in the long run. The boomer generation will age and die, releasing their housing assets to a dwindling population of the young. There will be no housing shortage. The same market forces that created a housing bubble will create another bubble in the value of social care for the elderly. The value of the most expensive house will be no more than the cost of getting someone to feed and clean you in your old age when you can't do it for yourself. Cheer up everyone.
  6. 10 more years global warming and there'll be a lot more seaside to choose from.............
  7. Remember that 1.5 million extra Britons have become "disabled" since GC1. Even allowing for a couple of wars and mad cow disease, it is obvious that this has been a politically motivated reclassification of the long term unemployed.
  8. No, he said the POISSONS are hatching. That's French for fish. He's been eating too many oysters again.
  9. I have money split between European and UK banks, but most of it is in NatWest, because I'm too lazy to move it, although I often wake these days in a sweaty nightmare of bank failure and total loss. The more I read on this site the more paranoid I get. I know that wherever I move the money, I will soon read a horror story of risk and losses so am pretty well paralysed. I am working on the (reasonable I think) assumption that if RBS goes belly up it will take down everything with it: every business, every household, every function of government. We will be like the Germans at the end of WWII, waiting in the ruins for foreign help to rescue us. By the time big banks fail, the money contained in them will be worthless.
  10. Hold on: this week we have seen headlines that house prices will "soar" beyond the means of UK families within 3 years. In this context, why is the government trying to "stimulate" the housing market? OK, some may have suspected the CEBR and NHF are liars who just made up their figures in order ramp property prices. It sounds as if the government knows it, otherwise why would they be introducing these crisis measures?
  11. I suppose now that the "experts" at Inside Track have left the stage their place has been taken by others. Funny how the "invest in property" message is exactly the same. Can the newspapers not distinguish between news and advertising any more?
  12. At the risk of being accused of being a nutty conspiracy theorist....................I think Brown will try something like this. In February when the HPI numbers started going negative he said he would do "anything necessary to get house prices moving again" . He didn't specify a direction, but we know what he meant. So I would expect some extravagant scheme to use public money in order to stimulate the housing market and move prices upwards. I also suspect that recent headlines in the Express and others about soaring house prices next year are politically driven. Government doesn't have to be fair, or even competent; they just need to get a commons majority in 2010 which means keeping about 40% of the population happy. If 40% of people are worried about falling house prices and negative equity then HMG are quite likely to magic up a windfall for them, even if it is at the expense of everyone else. They will do it in 2008-2009 because they can't leave it any later with a 2010 election looming.
  13. Depends where you look. Where I am looking asking prices have been reduced from 300K to 260K, and 280K to 220K, and those houses have sold (STC). These are big reductions on previous valuations. Sure, some other similar properties haven't been reduced. But they haven't sold. This is East Midlands and I think, to sell now, 15%-20% below 2007 peak is needed. I am overseas and will buy in the next 12 months. I will expect about a 25% reduction by summer 2009. I would expect to be able to buy a house, previously marketed at 300K for about 220K, and will still expect to "lose" 20-40K on it over the next 3 years . That amount of volatility is madness. Prices are definitely down though.
  14. Sorry, you're right. I didn't mean to imply this was a govt scheme, just that the vested interests have unlimited determination and resourcefulness, even if their competence is lacking. This is a discount/gifted deposit scheme, and these still seem to be on offer and being promoted to the military community. This example was an ad in a Joint Services Housing mag from March 08, and in July Persimmon were pushing a similar scheme to promote zero deposit BTL loans to soldiers serving overseas.
  15. This sort of caper should: 1. keep the housing market moving, and 2. ensure Gordon has a few "war veterans" on his side when he needs them.
  16. Which is why any scheme like this would be a fraudster's charter. The treasury won't allow it, even if it could afford it, which it can't.
  17. For every £1 the government spends it uses up another 40p in administration, over-payment and fraud. The taxpayer will be asked to pay the market value of the house plus the 40% premium to cover the "extras". I fear that they won't be deterred, and those of us who have refused to buy property may find HMG making us buy it, through the simple expedient of taking our money and buying on our behalf. The only reassurance is that they are so inept, whatever they try, the result will be failure.
  18. Me too. I have a 6 month old XC90 that I know is worth 30K, but because of the credit cruch, and financial crisis "coming from America" I can only get 24K at best (although I might have to throw in a house to sweeten the deal). The least the taxpayer can do is refund me my lost 6 thousand pounds. In fact anyone who buys something and regrets it ought to be able to get a refund from the government. It's only fair.
  19. Yes. last year's 300K property is now 250K. Savills sent me some printed details with a not too subtle sticky label over the previous price (299,950), now 249,950. This is the pattern I have seen in East Midlands, in that price bracket. The stats will take time to catch up with reality on the ground. Gordon did say in March that his priority would be to get house prices moving again. He's delivered exactlly as promised.
  20. Basic fact is she bought something for 405K, tried to sell it at 575K (170 profit) and failed, so was upset. Now, if she had succeeded, she would have been 170K in profit, but those profits would have been made at the expense of poorer people who also have their share of bereavement and bad luck, but lack the good fortune of owning a valuable asset (house) and affluent lifestyle. Of course I am sorry about the bereavement, but not sorry that she failed in her bid to profit at the expense of others who are not so lucky. This sounds pious I know, and if I had the chance to make a few hundred thousand by sheer good fortune I would take it even if other people had to lose out in the process. However, if I hoped to make 170K and in the end only made 40K, I wouldn't write to the papers and portray myself as a figure of unprecedented tragedy. She made less than she hoped for................so what. edit: arithmetic!
  21. great "news" story: GREEDY PERSON MAKES LESS MONEY THAN EXPECTED FROM HOUSING INVESTMENT AND IS VERY DISAPPOINTED Really I'm not sure if this is fiction or journalism. It's hard to tell.
  22. (edit: button trouble) OR................. you ask the government to buy all your hi-fis at £100 each. The government is so terrified at the prospect of all those unsold music systems that it buys them all. It doesn't have the cash, and can't borrow any more, so it just prints the money. All the hi-fis are sold, and at the full RRP. The hi-fi makers and owners of hi-fis celebrate, although they may be a little puzzled to discover their money doesn't stretch as far as it used to.
  23. Property shortage. That would be why builders are begging the government to buy up £8 billion woth of unwanted properties that they can't sell. There should be no bail-outs, and the builders should be allowed to sell at the market value or go out of business. Govt subsidies should not be used in order to protect inflated prices. Therre is no property shortage.
  24. Porsche Cayenne: your passport to IVA
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