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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by ingermany

  1. ""How safe is the government's guarantee? I think (in an uninformed way) that if the government stops paying on its guarantees, we will probably be in bigger doo doo than I can imagine. However, what is the time limit? Is there a fixed pot? Who gets it first? What is the procedure? Is the money actually safe? Would I be better bunging the whole lot under the mattress?""" edit punctuation I am also uninformed, but would draw the same conclusions. The guarantee is effective right up until the point it needs paying for. It works by reassurance (not re-insurance), in that it counteracts the natural instinct for depositors to withdraw their cash from the banking system. Once it fails and people start taking out their cash, causing bank failures, the guanantee is irrelevant. It won't matter if there is enough money in the pot. The pot will have been smashed and it's contents set on fire. UN troops will be patrolling the streets and the Royal Family (God bless them) will be in in a bunker, probably in the Bahamas with some easily melted down gold artefacts. This scenario has got to be unlikely, and personally I have better things to do than prepare myself for it.
  2. However, the Sunday Express has an altogether sunnier outlook: here are a few reader comments on its "Happier on the High Street" lead news item: Is this closer to what the average UK citizen believes? HAPPIER ON THE HIGH STREET 21.09.08, 5:45am Yes, I agree. I've noticed most of the supporters of the doom and gloom culture are people who want to get on the housing ladder cut price. It's in their interest to talk things down. In reality things are not that bad. Hope to see full recovery soon. Life is nicer when the papers are reporting house price inflation. Roll on the feel good times. • Posted by: Sibley • Report Comment COMMON SENSE AT LAST ? 21.09.08, 1:11am It is about time everyone calmed down, stopped listening to the Jeremiahs competing with each other to publish the most frightening Doom And Gloom story, and just got back to Life As Usual. This whole sad business was the result of the efforts of a few rogue share traders and herd panic. It's over ! Let's get back to business as usual. There is only a threat of a financial collapse if enough people are suckered into believing there is. • Posted by: TrevorD • Report Comment
  3. The Short Selling Option (which is not legal or ethical so please don't try it) Take £200K from the couple and tell them you bought the house for them. They'll be delighted as you've saved them £39K. Rent the house from the current owners for £800 per month so the couple can live in it. Buy it from the current owners when the price reaches £150K. You won't have to wait long. Reap the £50k profit for your time and expense.
  4. I guess the banks could get that desperate. they're not just trying to minimize the losses on the few thousand homes they might repossess. They must be more worried that if they flood the market with repo properties the house price collapse accelerates, and this impacts the £1 trillion+ on their balance sheets relating to all the other loans secured on property. They will use every device to attempt to stop prices dropping, and if they fail we will get massive bank failures. They (banks and government) have to do everything possible to stop these repo properties appearing on the market in large numbers. It might be better for the banks and government to lose money by holding onto thousands of properties (and even buy more of them) in order to support prices, than to allow the market to correct. It's like Common Agricultural Policy for housing (buy up the surplus and let it rot in order to keep prices artificially high). I know everyone on here says it can't work, but what if these people are so desperate they feel they have no choice but to attempt it.
  5. Agreed. Message is slowly getting through. My observation is that the market is just fine and there is plenty of money, and plenty of buyers, the only problem being vendors' lack of willingness to sell at realistic prices. I've seen evidence of quite rapid sales if properties are reduced 20% from 2007 peak. This shouldn't be crippling for anyone who bought before 2005.
  6. I have some sympathy with home owners. I have a large luxury 4x4 deisel. If I sell it I will lose money on it, if I am lucky enough to find someone to buy it. If I keep it, I can still believe it is worth 30K.
  7. .........................unless the "valuations" are particularly creative. I'm sure there are plenty surveyors out there with a track record of inflating valuations. The "value" of a house may be 50% more than its worth on the market depending on who's doing the valuation and who's paying them.
  8. New Story: Labour's 3rd Biggest Donor In a totally unrelated link, we remind ourselves that Labour's 3rd largest donor under Gordon Brown, is, in fact, a builder. No surprise then that Gordon is rewarding the building industry with taxpayers' handouts.
  9. Interesting, on the day Brown announces his rescue package, BBC Breakfast runs main feature stories on "how to forage for food" and one about a sudden national shortage of wheelie bins (presumably nicked by food foragers in the crime wave predicted by the Home Sec.). I bet Alistair Darling has a smug smile this morning.
  10. Builders already do this to the tune of 15% "you own the whole property but only pay for 85%" deals...........called "shared equity" in builderspeak, but sounds more like a discount to me (probably some small print with a repayment on selling if the selling price greater than purchase price). It just hides the price falls from the gullible. Many builders also pay a 5% deposit for you already, and arrange your mortgage. The govt. are now chipping in with up to 30% (of the "value"). Indicates that values have now fallen 30% at least and the govt is trying to put a floor under prices by guaranteeing the difference between what the builders want and what people will pay.
  11. P$$$ed off perhaps? Actually I agree with the OP. If the government is distributing largesse it should not be directed at paying off the mortgages of people earning 60K a year, allowing them to bank the profits of 200% house price inflation. This is a transfer of wealth to the already wealthy (albeit with temporary cash-flow problems). What happened to any sense of social justice? Problem is that this government are so in the pockets of vested interests that they won't recognise justice until it drags them kicking and screaming from the corridors of power. Also, if really investing in the future of the country (and not just the future of the PM) support for education would be more appropriate than support for builders and estate agents. Edit/Still angry after the first rant
  12. This repo prevention scheme is a fraudster's charter. Anyone who bought a house for 100K 5 years ago will be able to "sell" his toilet to the council and name his price, say 500K, making a net profit of 400K to pay off the mortgage, and acquire 5 or 6 BTL flats. The valuations used will be the fraudulent ones of 2007. Those fraudulent valuations were only achieved by banks lending money they didn't have to people who were not going to repay it. Those valuations are now being underwritten by taxpayers because the government can't handle the truth, that house values have fallen 30-50% since 2007.
  13. The government chipping in with 30% of the purchase price is just a way of fraudulently concealing a 30% drop in house values. Why can they just not let houses be sold at the market value? When are they going to admit that the Gordon boom/miracle which increased house "values" by 200% was totally fraudulent and only maintained by the sort of lending that has brought the banks and now the nation to its knees? Prices need to fall to pre-bubble levels, and then there will be no shortage of buyers.
  14. "I predict a riot": Kaiser Chiefs 2004. Although a bit vague on timing and location, this is probably an accurate forecast by the band from Leeds, who were clearly ahead of rest in working out the cosequences of the credit crunch and consequent economic downturn. I am now listening the rest of their songs for hidden messages: ruby ruby ruby ruby: WTF do they mean by that?
  15. BBC Story: Trigger Happy Lenders "Faced with these problems, Mr Cable told the BBC that there should not be an opportunity for easy repossessions by certain "trigger happy" lenders during a tough patch for borrowers."
  16. 2 female bodies. One missing man. Wonder what happened?
  17. Precisely, the timing and bluntness of the message can't be accidental. That is surely implausible. The press and TV news seem to have overlooked this angle to the story. Do they really think Brown/Darling can just "get on with the job" now, after Darling has publically contradicted his boss and undermined his much trumpeted "rescue package" before he's had a chance to announce it. Makes one wonder if the stamp duty holiday announcement debacle was also not a bit of political sabotage by the chancellor. And the missing computer discs for that matter. From Brown's point of view Darling has to be either working for the enemy or be breathtakingly incompetent. How can he not be sacked immediately?
  18. "Mortgage Rescue": the council buys part of the equity in a house from the owner in return for money to pay the bills, so the owner can remain in the property. It's just madness. How does the council exercise ownership of half a house? Can it sell the half it owns or put new tennants in it? Sounds like the owner (now part tennant) just gets half their mortgage written off without penalty. This is a formula for fraud, waste and injustice. It bugs me that those who are property-rich on the back of cheap credit and excessive borrowing are now being re-branded as "victims" of the credit cruch who need "rescue". The vocubulary of the business is twisted, in an attempt to conceal that the rest of us will be made to pay the home ownership costs of those who have spent the last 5 years boasting about "renting is dead money" and "property only goes up". These people are now charity cases apparently. The risks of property investment have now been transferred to the rest of us without any share in the gains. The 300% increase in value since 1995 is locked in for the owners, but the 10% loss since 2007 needs to be shared by all taxpayers. BS. Repossession is a zero sum game. It creates losers, but it also creates an equal number of winners, as repossessed property is bought at reduced prices by those formerly priced out. The government now wants to grossly tilt the playing surface, so those in houses they can't afford (could never afford without fraudulent mortgage lending and deceit) will be compensated by the rest of us and allowed to keep their gains in the game. In the process the government will drain the public coffers, destroy public services, and allow rampant inflation. Winter of extreme discontent is on the cards.
  19. The news we've been dreading. They've finished digging the hole and are ready to start pouring in the money. edit/spell
  20. Guess the winner and get a 4 bedroom house, 25 quid a go?
  21. Or they could raffle it off at 25 quid a ticket.
  22. BBC Breakfast with Bill and Sian. Main feature on a couple with a million pound house they can't sell who are trying to rafle it at 25 quid a ticket. So far have only sold 14 thousand tickets (350K) so they got a 7 minute slot on BBC with lots of photos of "this beautiful Property", "dream Home" lovingly described by Bill and Sian. A new low point for BBC news coverage. From BBC Breakfast website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/brea...ers/7537398.stm Tuesday 26 August # The Wilshaws Brian and Wendy Wilshaw are trying to raffle their house for one million pounds as they face retirement with no savings. For twenty five pounds you could have a chance of winning the house.
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