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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by ingermany

  1. Very funny. In that they have amassed housing wealth to the point that life has become unaffordable for nurses, doctors and carers in many areas of the UK, yes, they are the silent grey suicide bombers of Britain's suburbia.
  2. Not there yet. Denial phase will be protracted in my opinion. Only higher interest rates will change that. Banks are doing their bit to rob their customers though. My 2 year fix ran out and I'm now on SVR of 4%. My savings in the same bank earn 0.000125%. I contacted the mortgage department. My savings exceed the mortgage loan by a ratio of 500%. The LTV is under 50%. They advertise an offset mortgage, which their calculator implies would set the mortgage rate at 0%. I've been in to the branch, gone online and tried all 3 mortgage telephone advice lines. On the last call they actually denied that I was even a customer. The branch promised a call back that never happened. They want me to stay on the 4% of course. Ive been a customer for over 25 years. As a taxpayer I even own 73% of the bank's shares. My only comfort is that if the banks all do their bit in fleecing the borrowers we might actually get the crash we badly need.
  3. Yes, but May at least wanted to end that, and allow the cost to be rolled up and deferred until after death, at which point the costs could be paid from the estate. It sounded like a fairer solution. Instead, the can has been kicked down the road again. Care at home for meals, and personal care could be dealt with in the same way.....wasnt that the proposal, to create some equality of treatment, with no immediate need to sell property assets while the elderly person is still alive. May came up with a credible solution and promptly ditched it at the first sign of criticism.
  4. Old people have no more right to free board and lodgings than young people have to a free university degree. They should pay, via a loan, with the actual cost deferred, with interest applied, until it can be recouped from the estate. I think that was the manifesto promise. It was sensible and fair. It is probably inevitable, and government should set about making it happen through an efficient and equitable mechanism. Not the dogs dinner of university loans that allowed certain areas of UK to grant exemptions, meaning that freebies were granted to Scottish, French and German students doing degrees in Scotland at the expense of English ones who were charged up to 50k. If people need to pay for a service, let's at least make it fair and transparent this time.
  5. Pure stupidity. I admit it. Paid for in cash, and big discount of 35%. So I might lose slightly less than 20% of value in 12 months.
  6. I think the Estate Agent reports are a big influence as well. 77% of sales are now reduced from asking price. Where I am agents are quick to point out that prices are negotiable and are openly embarassed at asking prices. Lots of houses have no upward chain and have been for sale for over 6 months. More and more negative sentiment is mounting. There is demand, but not at the asking prices, and even according to Rightmove, asking prices are falling. Economic fundamentals have never supported the post 2011 boom. All of that came from government intervention. Now government seems resigned to a policy of reversing that stimulus. I wonder if the banks can sustain a 40% devaluation in real estate assets at the same time as a flood of bad debt appears on the horizon. Even if one large lender collapses, the whole banking system will go into meltdown. I can't see any alternative to more nationalisation of banking, more printing, and more props to the market.....just to let it down gently.
  7. Certainly made me pause for thought. I am due to exchange contracts on a house purchase soon. And I bought a new diesel car 3 months ago. That makes 2 good investments in one year The market is about psychology and sentiment. Articles like this will kill it dead. A bit like the diesel car situation.
  8. That's what I thought. This is decidedly unpatriotic.
  9. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4657812/Britain-brink-housing-price-collapse.html The usual editor must be off sick. This is the most extreme HPC warning I have ever seen in main stream press. Or in the Daily Mail for that matter. Says price collapse of 40% is imminent. That is going to kill buyer confidence. And probably a few estate agents.
  10. About time too. I totally agree that welfare "benefits"should operate like student loans. People get help with social care and mortgage interest if they need it, but it is in the form of a loan that attracts interest at RIP +3%, that stays with them for life and is recovered via a tax on their estate needed. Why should the state pay someone's mortgage, to enable them to reap the profit when they sell the house? State sponsored capitalism. It is just another way in which government uses taxpayers money to artificially inflate house prices.
  11. Been looking to buy in UK, East Midlands. Cash purchase in range 300 to 350. Prices seem firm and stock levels low. Very little for sale. House 1 listed at 325k . Offer 298 rejected. Vendor counter 315. We almost took that but decided to walk rather than negotiate. 2 weeks later house was relisted at 308k. Eventually sold after 3 months. Guesstimate sub 300. Agent was really fair and professional. House just wasn't right for us. House 2 listed at 320. Offer 300....accepted immediately. Damn...too high. Survey showed some significant structural issues. I requested reduction to 280k. Owner countered at 297. Walked away again. House relisted at 320 now. Agent was an amateur. Failed to communicate with seller. Wanted our survey report for free. Given extracts from report via solicitor.....just failed to read the words like "in urgent need of" and "asbestos". Said that survey "reads positively". Obviously thinks that original price is achievable. Both houses had been bought in the last 15 years and would have made the seller a small profit...20 to 30k. Not life changing though, but people obviously feel they can't let a house go if they are being offered something close to their previous purchase price. In both these cases this was an issue. Now renting and watching. Despite low stock, immediate reductions of 10% almost guaranteed if seller really wants to sell. This will take time. If economic news continues on this trajectory, eventually prices will correct.
  12. Student finance is just downright state sponsored theft. Help to Buy gifted loans to estate agents and house builders....interest free. Yet if you want to train to be a doctor it's RPI +3%.
  13. There are more massive defence cuts coming. And yes, I believe the pension liabilities are included in the military budget. Remember those massive forces we had in the Cold War? We're still paying them from today's defence spending. I do wonder how long we can keep this up for.
  14. Oh...shows how much attention I pay to this.....I must have missed that. For 5 years. How the chuff can they calculate inflation as 1%? Pensions are unaffordable though, and there has got to be a default on a whole lot of government debts, including pensions. Or more currency devaluation and inflation.
  15. I have just noticed that my UK military pension has had its inflation linked annual increase reset to 1%. RPI linkage was promised, and it was part of the package that enabled UK to recruit military personnel to serve in Iraq and Afghanistan. Seems that those pension commitments are being gradually eroded. Government seems to have decided that a quiet stab in the back for military pensioners is a good place to start. I agree it is probably as good a place as any. What surprises me is that it has been done without debate, discussion or protest. Strange that they still have cash to splash on propping up house prices though, but I expect when the government's huge gamble on entering the home loans and mortgage market finally collapses, pensions and wages across the public sector will become even more unsupportable. Armed forces, police, hospitals, schools anyone?
  16. Interesting legal principle being set here. This means that if you agree to pay 500k for a house, and later feel you've been grossly overcharged because the house was last sold for 110k in 1995, you can get a 390k rebate from the seller. Clearly, paying more than the last person who bought the house is "not in the buyer's interests" , and he is not being "treated fairly". Are FTBs being "treated fairly" when they have to pay twice as much for a house as was the case 10 years ago? And for that matter, are students being "treated fairly" when they are paying 9k a year and 6.5% interest for something that is free in other parts of the UK.
  17. Nah, just get put up for adoption in Scotland at age 16.
  18. Sorry...of course renting is OK. And I don't think owning a BTL in Aberdeen would qualify you as resident. You actually have to live there. There is probably a lot of value in it though, if you have 2 or more children. The savings over their working lifetimes of 35 years, is likely to be around 100k per child, but if inflation kicks off, it may be much much more once the loan starts accruing interest at RPI+3%. At that rate the loan will keep increasing faster than they can repay it. It means they are paying an extra 9% income tax for life. If I had 3 kids I would move to Scotland. It would take the average person a long time to accrue savings of 300k in any other way.
  19. The impact on student loans is what will really hurt. That is 3% +RPI. That means lots of 21 year olds with 50k debts accruing interest at around 7% compound. They'll all owe 100k+ by the time they're 30. Unless they have a parent who owns a property in Scotland. I predict that Scottish property prices will soar as English parents bag themselves a Scottish postcode to save 100s of thousands in taxes for their kids. If you have children, it is the best tax avoidance scheme available.
  20. Yes.....it only makes sense if HPI continues. That is the assumption built into house "values". You're not buying a [email protected] semi. You're paying for admission to a pyramid that doubles your stake very 7 years.
  21. As someone already said, Barclays is the new Northern Rock. Watch out for the long lines of people waiting outside the branches.
  22. "the facility for every household to borrow at least half a million pounds without obligation to repay it is absolutely fundamental to the health of the housing market".............. Brown 2008
  23. When Albania had its pyramid selling fiasco their government had a choice of either allowing investors to lose their money or of printing money to repay the losers. They chose to allow investors to lose out on stupid investments. UK has taken the other path, of offering to make good everyone's losses, and to guarantee future gains to new investors. Nationalise the banks, offer government backed deposits to new pyramid recruits, lend directly to new entrants, devalue the currency. They have greatly increased the deposit base, and given it practically infinite government investment, in that there is now effectively no limit on government and taxpayer liability for private mortgage debt. It's hard to see any outcome other than state failure. This is probably why the EU is pushing for accelerated Brexit.
  24. Not surprising really. The government has nationalised money lending and invested hundreds of billions in residential property loans. Those mortgages are government backed so default and repossession is no longer an option. I remember when the NHS was the largest nationalised resource and national treasure. Now it's RBS and the other pyramid lending scams. Not surprising that even rich people with millions in property assets now stand a good chance of dying on a hospital trolley waiting to be seen by an overworked Polish doctor enticed to England with gifts and tax breaks. Society has been broken. EU has been used as a decoy by the boomers, even though the meltdown has been all designed and implemented in the UK. If you wanted to create a failed state, they have provided the template.
  25. Energy bills rise....kick in the teeth for families. House prices rise......more good news for the economy and joy for hard working families. Even now, they don't get it. And by "they" I don't mean the Daily Express. There is universal hand wringing puzzlement among even the most educated circles at the rising cost of social care, health care, child care, fuel, heating, food, services, life in general. Yet joy when the cost of everyone's biggest unavoidable living expense rockets by 2,000 pounds a month, and when interest rates are lowered to the point that makes money practically worthless. Among all the economists, analysts and experts nobody has managed to establish a link between the triad of loose credit, rampant house price inflation, and the rising cost of pretty much everything else. It's not just the media. Even people I know and respect don't see that an average house price of 500k in the SE means that a junior doctor is not going to accept a 80 hour working week for less than 40k per annum. Schools, elderly care, child care and health will be unaffordable, no matter how they are funded. People with 2 million in assets are left to rot on hospital trollies because the doctors and nurses who could treat them cannot afford basic housing.
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