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ingermany

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Everything posted by ingermany

  1. They say they can't do anything to control house prices, yet I seem to recall when house prices were falling the BoE and government reacted immediately to shore up prices by printing money, lowering interest rates to below zero , pushing up inflation, paying peoples' mortgages, outlawing repossession, nationalising banks, subsidising BTL purchases, paying the builders to keep land undeveloped, paying 20% deposits for buyers and generally flooding the mortgage market with cheap money. It seems just a bit disingenuous to suggest that "nothing can be done".......................given the massive state intervention already deployed to rig the market. The truth of course is that this massive state intervention is now the very reason why nothing can be done.
  2. A mortgage where you pay ineterest but never pay off the capital in your lifetime. Is that not an INTEREST ONLY mortgage? This is just a tactic to re-introduce IO mortgages for the mainstream. There will be Government Deposit 20%+Shared Equity+IO terms in order to make deals affordable. and still they don't realise that prices are just too high. What will it take?
  3. Lower housing costs, or lower house prices? As we now know, house prices can be pushed up to infinity by manipulating the home loan rates and conditions to increase affordability. So you can have low housing costs with very high prices, supported by government spending, nationalised banks, benefits and subsidies. All the policy makers are focused on pursuing this path. It makes HPC virtually impossible. We will see HtB mk3-mk10 before the decade is out. Sub zero IRS, subsidies for house prices. What or who will stop government from doing this? The whole thing has been marked as too big to fail.
  4. 80k a year? That means you can now afford to buy a second home. No wonder HPI is maintained.
  5. You think the fact that the benefits system pays the whole cost of buying into a leveraged investment doesn't affect the market value of that investment? I think the whole point of HtB1, HtB2, SMI, LHA is that they increase house prices. That is the sole purpose of these land value subsidies. Now, if the recipients gain from these generous subsidies by way of the HPI they create, then it seems reasonable that some of that HPI gain is clawed back by the state. LVT would be good, but first we need to remove the land value subsidies.
  6. Calm down. Floods are as bad for renters as they are for mortgage payers. And why would anyone want to buy a flood prone house just to save a few quid on the price? Nobody is suggesting that blighted dwellings at reduced prices are the answer to the housing crisis. Anyway, I very much doubt house prices would be affected by any natural phenomenon. They are set by government, like prescription charges and TV licences.
  7. It's working again. Just transferred 10k to my children this morning to rescue it from NatWest's clutches. They bank with Santander.
  8. So true. The other difference is that the bad debts created by the Ponzi pyramid aren't on private balance sheets. They've been nationalised. Will this fact postpone or prevent collapse of the Ponzi?
  9. They have already reclassified 3million unemployed adults as disabled. Now they will classify another million as children. And what is significant about age 25? Why not extend childhood to 40?
  10. This promises a whole new world of state managed age discrimination. There is really no point of the NHS wasting money on the over 65s who are not contributing to the national workforce. Why do you need a new hip after you've reached pension age?
  11. This is so true. On another thread here there is a very significant piece about Nick Clegg talking about ordinary 700k houses for working people in Lewisham, believing that the average working family can buy a 700k house, or as someone has pointed out, one that costs 10x an MP salary. If I earn 35 K and borrow to buy a 700k house, this implies very clearly that I cannot afford to repay my debt. Government may try to obscure this fact by fiddling with rates and mortgage terms and providing gifted deposits, but sooner or later there will be an en masse realisation that this is bonkers, that the emperor has no clothes, and that the game is up. The rush to cash in will be a stampede and no amount of policy meddling will stop it, short of a government guarantee to refund negative equity (like the bank deposit guarantee scheme). I doubt whether even that would calm the stampede for the exits.
  12. They should increase stamp duty to 15% for FTBs and then lend them back the money as an interest free loan for 5 years. They can call it HTB3. People will lap it up.
  13. It will come from government. It already is coming from government spending. Funding for Lending, Help to Buy 1 and 2, support for mortgage interest when the borrower can't afford repayments, housing benefits to support higher returns for landlords. Without these schemes market forces would cause a price correction. I sometimes wonder whether bank nationalisation was deliberately engineered as being the only way to sustain the housing boom. They've made the government investment in higher house prices the largest element of national policy. This is totally different to the 89-94 HPC in that HMG is directly on the hook as the creditor for bad debts that dwarf the rest of the economy. Their only option is to keep lending to prevent default.
  14. They will try to allow banks to convert increased house values into residual income to drive consumer spending. Back to 2007 style stupid lending secured nominally on crackpot home valuations. It worked last time. There is no plan B.
  15. It's at moments like this that you ask yourself what has happened to Eric.
  16. When the consequences of this hit the fan, the event will be totally unforeseen. Again.
  17. Does that meant that the H2B loans guaranteed by government can be used by lenders as collateral to create more money to lend to other potential home buyers? Is that a real help to buy multiplier?
  18. I think you're right about what Brown said. We know what he meant though.
  19. True. And whilst the BoE says its job does not include controlling house prices, we know that they responded to house price falls with a cut in real interest rates from +4% to -4%, £375,000,000,000 of money printing and a total repudiation of their central mission of controlling inflation. The PTB will literally stop at nothing to keep house prices rising. Starting with Brown and King, they have always been open about their determination to (in Brown's words) " do everything possible to get house prices moving again". Cameron's mission to "fix the broken housing market" is just another way of saying the same thing. The speech where he says " you can't fix a debt problem by taking on more debt" simply does not apply to mortgages and property investment. While those with the policy levers have that sort of commitment we will not see a HPC. Only total economic ruin will fix this now.
  20. Thanks for the graph. I see how they made their prediction for 2023 now. They just took the 2003 to 2013 trend and extrapolated it. Clever.
  21. In years gone by anyone spending 600K on a house would have been deemed a fair target for punitive taxes. Now, someone who can "only" afford 600K qualifies for government assistance from the welfare budget via the help to buy fund. That is a significant change in circumstances. And it is somewhat inconsistent to be donating aid to a "hard pressed family" and also taxing them to the tune of a 13K lump sum.
  22. Like "graduate tax", social care costs and prescription charges? Yes, Osborne would look stupid if he didn't maintain equal policies on taxation across the whole of UK. Oh, hang on a minute. What an ignorant and odious snout in the trough waste of space.
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