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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by ingermany

  1. Lets be more precise about this for the benefit of the Libdems and Tories. This is an 9% additional tax on English graduates only. The tax is paid to the entity formerly known as the UK but it is only payable by the English faction. Incidentally, was chatting to a Greek girl a few months ago who is planning to attend med school in Edinburgh because there are no fees. That must be comforting to those families living 100km from Edinburgh on the English side of the border. The government and opposition and press have all been tactfully ignoring this massive inequality that has effectively ruptured the UK. Why would any English taxpayer in the future allow any payment to be transferred north of the border to benefit a population that regards them as more foreign than any other European nation?
  2. It is a bailout in the first place. Shared equity is a government attempt to rescue those caught in the 2001-2007 bubble. So, a bailout of a bailout is on the cards? I suspect you're right.
  3. Revaluation from 260K to 417K according to Daily Mail. Government funded building project using housing association management. Like the rest of the country.........rises driven by subsidies from government. Most replies on the DM comments are aghast that the original price was so cheap!!!!!
  4. The new pyramid scheme for the ordinary man. Sign up and get rich. You're dead right that they can't remove the life support. Saw on South Today that they can't recruit teachers in Oxfordshire because no one can afford a home. Solution-more government subsidies to allow low earners (relative to house prices) to buy. Means yet more government ministers using taxpayers money to bid up house prices. More BTL profit. More new BTL investors buying in at higher entry costs. Forget too big to fail. It failed long ago. It's just too big to stop.
  5. Yes, all this BS about affordability. While government itself is borrowing money to guarantee advances to folks who can't afford a loan through commercial channels. Contrary signals for sure. If government said, "Look we want house prices to be higher so we're going to borrow a couple of hundred billion pounds and use it to bid up the prices of scarce housing stock" it would at least be honest.
  6. And Housing Benefit is a big fat Common Agriculture Policy subsidy.
  7. Not to mention the SDLT extracted from the FTB. So the state lends you 20% of the cost so that the seller makes more profit, and then taxes the FTB on the purchase price that HTB has artificially inflated.
  8. Sort of Robin Hood in reverse. Steal from the peasants in order to enrich the landowners. And claim the increase in landowner wealth is economic growth.
  9. Yet the current government is up to its armpits in regulation, Largely expensive market intervention to push up prices. Defaulting on mortgage?.........we pay the interest for you. Millions of people defaulting on mortgages?....we buy the bank. Can't afford the rent?.....we pay it for you through LHA. Is this not regulation? The fact that it is done to stimulate inflation does not make it anything other than market regulation.
  10. If you extrapolate from the past, the conclusion is reasonable. I guess the question we have to answer is "what is different?" I can think of a few things: Ageing population Student debt Globalisation Loss of bargaining power of the average worker Record national debts in large economies I don't know how you go about modelling all these factors, so I guess "analysts" just go for extrapolation, and choose the comparator carefully.......how about 1970-1990?
  11. Unless your savings are denominated in houses.......which is the case for 60% of the population.
  12. Not yet. I think they'll do literally anything to stop the market operating normally. If 20% subsidies fail, they'll be doubled to 40%. You don't realise that this isn't about house prices any more. It's an existential struggle. It's like Douglas Haig after the first day of the Somme. Whatever the losses on day one, he just had to do it again on day 2 and again and again for the next 140 days.
  13. I fully believe too. Just looking at buying now. Sold prices for this 2br flat have gone from 130k in 2002, to 160k 2009 to 130k now. Similar units seem to have been selling at 250k in 2007! Anyone who bought after 2002 with 90% LTV is likely to have NE. Carnage is the only word for it. And still the property is over-priced. It will tank when govt subsidies are removed. It's not negative equity that would worry me. It's the potential riots and burning cities when the reality sinks in.
  14. That's the government plan, apparently. It makes as much sense as a 1990s Albanian pyramid scheme, and is being supported by the government for the same reasons the Albanian state tolerated the pyramid fraud. A visceral fear of the consequences of money exiting the "market" and having to face the angry masses who feel they've lost money. Having said all this, the ppty I am looking at is on sale for the same price that it changed hands for in 2002. CPI went up around 40% since then so this property value has dropped like a stone in real terms over the past 12 years. In spite of this HTB has resurrected the "prices only go up" meme. It is scary how propaganda can blind people to the plain truth.
  15. The price inflation due to government manipulation is spreading well beyond London/SE, into areas with low median salaries and no REAL affordability underpinning the price rises. Take away the government subsidies, and you have another crash. Can't blame it on BTL because yields are 3-4%- surely no one is "investing" in BTL other than in the hope of government subsidies via HTB and LHA causing inflation. It is madness, again. They just need to bring back Northern Rock and the "we don't ask any questions" mortgage and the circle is complete. Except this time the government bail-outs are being given up front via HTB, rather than after the default crisis.
  16. Hometrack reports that sellers are now getting 97% of asking price. Latest bit of media ramping, although I have to say, from my experience this does seem to be true. And not just in London. Have been looking to buy in NE England, and agent has 6 viewings within 24hrs of instruction. No hope of making an offer below asking price. In fact, having offered full asking, I am now waiting for the agent to call me if offer is accepted. The property is "fairly" priced at 2002 level and 30k below 2009. But I am not paying above asking price. This is not a market. HTB is a seller's insurance policy paid for by FTBs. So this is what Cameron and Clegg wanted. Prices stoked up. Help to Buy does not help ordinary people to buy. It has unleashed a price bubble, with inflation and gazumping. Followed no doubt by a crash AFTER a lot of people have been sucked into paying insane prices. The depressing thing is that for politicians this is precisely the result they wanted.
  17. Those English students are also paying for the EU students to attend Scottish universities free of charge. Wouldn't want to stop that.
  18. Yes. We should be concerned. They've already bet the farm on this and can't walk away from the table. They're privatising health care and nationalising mortgage lending. What does that tell you? Wasn't that what they did with zero IRs and ignoring inflation targets. We had several years of high inflation. Wages did rise for many people as a result. Now bricklayers are on £100k. There will be an inevitable catch up. Isn't that just help to buy? Government to buy 20% of every new house. Soon to be 30,40,50%.
  19. A new definition of the phrase "self interest", but the point is that this measure was introduced with the sole purpose of keeping the pyramid going. The latest entrants to the mad scheme will be proxy house buyers using pension pots to gift deposits to children and grandchildren..............say 5% deposits so that the younger generation can get the 15% equity loan from government and the other 80% from a government owned bank. With that sort of leverage, those pension pots could be used to trigger a new round of pyramid frenzy.
  20. bubble-mania Apologies if someone's already posted this topic. Even so, it must be well worth an extra rant. From now on, anyone retiring with a private or occupational pension can convert the notional/fictional pot of money into a lump sum to invest in something. The minister is suggesting a Lamborghini or a house, or something like that. Using the money like this will attract a tax break, and comes with no risk, because even if all the money is blown, the state will still support these "non-pensioners" Oh, and any houses bought in this way won't count as assets when calculating liability to care costs. Holy cow, this is has lit the thermite under UK housing and will bring an army of over 55s into BTL. If we had a border with Russia there might be some hope left, but no, we're stuck on this crappy island.
  21. Why waste money on the NHS when there are still rich people who want more cash? In 2008 we weren't facing a systemic collapse. We were confronted with the potential disappointment of some people who thought they'd made a 200% on a leveraged investment and might have to settle for a 120% return. Brown referred to these people as innocent victims of an unforeseeable disaster. These people needed government aid that made the Marshall plan appear modest by comparison. Not money to build new homes like after ww2. But money to flood the market with cheap finance and restrict supply by subsidising builders to keep excess stock off the free market. Where's the Luftwaffe when you need them?
  22. I guess that if you need hospitals and schools and police in London, then you need HTB on steroids. When TPTB talk about "affordable housing" they do not mean "cheaper housing" They mean finding ways of allowing a newly qualified teacher to get a million pound loan. Already, it has become financial and political orthodoxy that the government is responsible for providing cheap home loans, rather than universal health care, literacy, education and legal aid. People here say this can only end badly. I say it already has. When all mainstream journalists are cheering the nationalisation of sub-prime lending, something has already gone seriously wrong.
  23. The whole purpose of HTB was to allow builders to reverse the 20% fall in house prices caused in the crash. The government pays the first 20% for the buyer and the seller gets the benefit. It's a scheme designed to increase prices, and it can't be stopped unless and until the State becomes bankrupt. Never in human history has this sort of state intervention reduced prices of anything.
  24. No surprise. From the moment this started everyone here predicted it could never be withdrawn, and many said the subsidy would have to be escalated. I don't see how it can be withdrawn without causing house prices to fall, which will set of a chain reaction of real insolvency (rather than the latent insolvency that can be covered up by government subsidies). Subsidies can only expa nd and increase.
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