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  1. Just in good fun. Anyway this thread proves there's life in equities yet. I'm away now on my cruise. Can't stay chatting to you guys all day.
  2. As a net buyer for the long term a crash is good for me as I can buy cheaper. Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful (something like that)
  3. Who is making losses on equities this year?. And an old car is preferable to no car. You can set your losses against your house capital gain at 40%.
  4. Apart from Japs and Asia equities are near all-time highs so in that sense they've topped. With QE and pathetic cash returns, no housing price gains they've still a bit to run - at least till next May IMO. DYOR
  5. You jest. UK, US, Europe, Japs are up 20%+ this year. No sign of stopping with pathetic cash interest rates, QE everywhere, election coming up, RM will get the public interest if a bit of money is made early on. Check the equity bulliten boards and Hargreaves Lansdown, iii for charts before posting blox. Unless its a wind-up (you got me hooked) PS you've started a thread on equities hence, by your logic, equities haven't topped. Ha ha
  6. further, if you buy at 1.15 euros to £ and when you come to sell the £ is 1.40 euros your profit after cgt (if any) will be hit big time. currency fluctuations are often ignored.
  7. Euro hpc may be 30% off peak. But then so is the £ against the euro. Not a big fall in real terms.
  8. Wait, wait. Lets hear Stella's side before making any rash judgements http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/stella-english-how-lost-everything-2317758 (some interesting snippets in there)
  9. Buy, Buy, Buy. http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/118289/royal-mail-priced-go-income-seekers Bye Bye
  10. According to this iii article, QE has already ended. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Viewpoint: The shocking truth about QE By Ken Fisher | Thu, 19th September 2013 - 00:00 Viewpoint: The shocking truth about QE Great news: quantitative easing is ending soon. Yes, you read that right. People fret QE's end will be a bad thing, but it isn't. It's ultra-bullish. How do you know? Britain's economy accelerated after the Bank of England (BoE) quit its own QE lunacy, and virtually no one notices. That's a powerful precedent with huge surprise potential. At 25% of gross domestic product (GDP), British QE was bigger than the US's - and it was no stimulus. It flattened the spread between short and long rates, a key source of bank profits - banks' primary motive to lend. Reducing them discourages lending - so it's anti-growth. If QE was truly stimulative, money supply would have grown fast. But broad money fell £149 billion from March 2010 to March 2012 and rose at a snail's pace after. GDP dipped and dived. People thought QE was the only reason the UK economy didn't crater in 2010 and 2011. Not true - QE restrained growth. The BoE and Chancellor of the Exchequer tried a host of programmes to boost credit, not seeing that ceasing QE would be the real stimulus (and simpler). Now Britain's economic chains are off, and it's skipping along. After the BoE stopped buying gilts last November, the yield spread widened and money supply sped up. Services, manufacturing and construction purchasing managers' indices - all choppy during QE - are on a winning streak. Retail sales and housing, too. Mortgage approvals are going gangbusters and overall loan growth is stabilising. Second-quarter imports - a key domestic demand indicator - grew the fastest in three years. Fixed investment grew consecutive quarters for the first time since 2007. GDP accelerated. Corporate profitability strengthened. Shares are screaming. The FTSE 100 (UKX) is up double digits year-to-date. All wildly contradict the notion of a modest, gradual reduction in the central bank's balance sheet being disastrous for the economy or stocks. Expect the same for the US. Markets fear the party will stop once the Federal Reserve pulls the punchbowl - not realising the punchbowl is laced with sedatives. That the US is partying anyway is a miracle of underappreciated private sector strength. Once the Fed stops squashing the US yield spread, growth should skyrocket - just like Britain. It's basic. Yet almost no one connects the dots between QE's end and Britain's swifter growth. Few even realised British QE was over until July, when BoE hold-outs stopped pushing for a restart. People wondered then what would become of the UK, not knowing they had the answer. Britons still don't see it and Americans don't even think to look across the pond. So when American QE ends and the world doesn't, investors will be shocked. False fears are bullish. The bigger the misperception, the bigger the surprise power - and QE taper terror is a massive misperception. Faster growth will force investors to rethink their dismal outlook on shares. As their false fears flip to bullish belief, they'll pay more for future earnings.
  11. He's probably the only one who would be better off financially by working. Seems he's had it easy, always someone to feed him and put a roof over his head.
  12. Equity markets can give investors hope during tough times Money Observer logo This article was produced by our sister publication Money Observer. By Barry Riley | Fri, 12/04/2013 - 15:42 How can savers and investors dodge the fallout from Chancellor George Osborne and the UK government's "remedy" for our financial woes? We know the problems are mounting for the UK economy when official inflation targets are being abandoned and the country's AAA credit rating has been downgraded. As savers and investors we must adapt, however reluctantly, or we will suffer expensive penalties. This is an age of illusion, leading to disillusion. When politicians become desperate, they no longer accept basic, tried and tested principles - that people should be encouraged to save, for example, or that only sustainable public spending objectives should be pursued. Our savings and pension pots become piles of loose money that can be raided; and, secretly, behind closed doors, the D-word begins to be whispered - default. No wonder a pressure group called Save Our Savers has been formed. We investors must protect ourselves. First, we must switch from monetary assets (deposits and bonds) to real assets (such as equities or property) to escape the worst effects of rising inflation. Second, we should shift the focus of our investments outside the UK, to avoid some of the effects of the debasement of the currency. There are ominous signs of trouble ahead. The Bank of England has abandoned its 2% inflation target in favour of "flexibility". Vote-hungry politicians across Europe decry what is labelled "austerity" by their spin doctors when what they are really opposing are fiscal honesty and prudence. However, for all the talk of cuts, UK Treasury spending continues to rise. In January I wrote that the loss of the AAA credit rating was inevitable. The West is facing a fundamental democratic crisis. Parties win power at elections by wooing the electorate with promises of higher public spending and reduced taxes. They are always at risk of embarking on a path towards fiscal collapse and bankruptcy as a result. Since World War II, this slippery slope has generally been avoided through the escape route of economic growth, which provides extra employment and raises government revenues. Europe and the US were, for decades, very competitive in the global economy. Since the 1990s, however, that competitiveness has been lost to the developing world, especially China. The growth escape route has been closed off. One likely response will be attempts to stimulate growth by abandoning the principles whereby wealthy societies seek to protect their lifestyles and environments. Planning controls will be scrapped, employment protection rules will be torn up, and new roads, railways, airports and nuclear power stations will spread across an increasingly "fracked" UK landscape. It is against this grim background that the current political, economic and financial drama is playing out in the UK. The Office for Budget Responsibility, the tame economic forecasting agency set up by the Chancellor, George Osborne, three years ago to rubber-stamp the Treasury's rose-tinted forecasts, has had to abandon the notion that growth will soon return to 3% a year. Distorted The Bank of England has been demoralised by the appointment of a foreigner, the Canadian Mark Carney, as governor from July. Meanwhile, the bank's Monetary Policy Committee has become seriously split. Financial markets are now more badly distorted than at any time since World War II. Prices and interest rates are no longer primarily set according to fundamental factors such as profits, creditworthiness or inflation. Instead, they depend on a flood of loose money created mainly through quantitative easing (artificial price setting by central banks) in the US, Japan and the UK. The Japanese government is the latest to adopt an inflation target, after years of deflation. The Tokyo equity market has surged as a result. Anomalies abound. For example, one symptom of all this official manipulation is that the outstanding financial opportunity currently available to UK citizens is to fix a mortgage for five years at 3% (although only if they can afford a deposit of 35% or 40%). This is thanks to the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) launched by the Bank of England last July. We can now see that it was designed to pump up house prices before the next general election in May 2015. The FLS is enabling mortgage lenders to reduce their funding costs for several years ahead. They therefore no longer need to compete seriously for retail deposits, as a result of which rates on two-year fixed deposits have collapsed by about one percentage point since last summer. This amounts to another attack on conventional savings. Only borrowers and spenders are rewarded by the politicians in these conditions. This latest squeeze on interest rates does mean, though, that the short-term outlook for house prices has improved. As joyful headlines in the Daily Express show, house price inflation is regarded as good and will win votes for the Conservatives at the next election. Beyond that, however, it remains true that house prices are too high on fundamentals - especially in relation to personal incomes. The coming bubble will be a brief one. Equities The other asset class benefiting recently from monetary laxity has been equities. When bonds began to reach seriously overvalued levels last year at the same time as money was still being pumped out by various governments, especially our own, the big investors began to rebalance their portfolios. This has not yet amounted to the "great rotation" I mentioned in January, but there has been a marked shift from bonds to equities. Economic growth prospects have not yet improved in a way that might make equities more attractive, but inflation has begun to accelerate globally. In the UK the Bank of England has declared its readiness to accept inflation above 2% indefinitely. Fixed-interest bonds on tiny yields have therefore become less attractive to investors, even when they are prepared to set aside the risks these carry of government debt restructuring or default, which become more serious every time the eurozone crisis reignites. The insolvency "parcel" is being passed around from Greece to Spain and then on to Italy. Might France be next? Sterling weakness is the other consequence of monetary laxity. It's good news for investors with shares in the big international companies that dominate the FTSE 100 (UKX) index, because most of their business is conducted overseas in foreign currencies, but it drives up domestic prices. The Bank of England knows this and has relaxed its inflation target. But this is not an easy fix. Fear is growing of a 1930s-style currency war, as the major economic blocks engage in beggar-my-neighbour attempts to gain competitiveness at the expense of trading partners. In some ways the UK has a trading advantage compared with the eurozone member states in having its own currency. But a national currency must be managed responsibly and sustainably or it will come under speculative attack, as the pound did just 20 years ago on Black Wednesday. These are scary times. The UK government has deliberately penalised savers for choosing low-risk investments. We must invest more heavily in equities, property and foreign currency assets. We may be surprised and pleased at how high these risky assets rise. But setbacks will come and many will not enjoy being such a long way away from their risk comfort zone.
  13. Not sure how, but seems to fit. The Experiment- Part 1 5 monkeys are locked in a cage, a banana was hung from the ceiling and a ladder was placed right underneath it. As predicted, immediately, one of the monkeys would race towards the ladder, to grab the banana. However, as soon as he would start to climb, the researcher would spray the monkey with ice-cold water. but here's the kicker- In addition, he would also spray the other four monkeys… When a second monkey tried to climb the ladder, the researcher would, again, spray the monkey with ice-cold water, As well as the other four watching monkeys; This was repeated again and again until they learned their lesson Climbing equals scary cold water for EVERYONE so No One Climbs the ladder. The Experiment- Part 2 Once the 5 monkeys knew the drill, the researcher replaced one of the monkeys with a new inexperienced one. As predicted, the new monkey spots the banana, and goes for the ladder. BUT, the other four monkeys, knowing the drill, jumped on the new monkey and beat him up. The beat up new guy thus Learns- NO going for the ladder and No Banana Period- without even knowing why! and also without ever being sprayed with water! These actions get repeated with 3 more times, with a new monkey each time and ASTONISHINGLY each new monkey- who had never received the cold-water Spray himself (and didn't even know anything about it), would Join the beating up of the New guy. This is a classic example of Mob Mentality- bystanders and outsiders uninvolved with the fight- join in 'just because'. When the researcher replaced a third monkey, the same thing happened; likewise for the fourth until, eventually, all the monkeys had been replaced and none of the original ones are left in the cage (that had been sprayed by water). The Experiment- Part 3 Again, a new monkey was introduced into the cage. It ran toward the ladder only to get beaten up by the others. The monkey turns with a curious face asking "why do you beat me up when I try to get the banana?" The other four monkeys stopped and looked at each other puzzled (None of them had been sprayed and so they really had no clue why the new guy can't get the banana) but it didn't matter, it was too late, the rules had been set. And So, although they didn't know WHY, they beat up the monkey just because " that's the way we do things around here"…
  14. will be interesting to see what it actually goes for.
  15. Same here (Derby area), but good priced ones are going SSTC in days.
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