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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by London-loser

  1. What is the point of your post? Things can't be THAT great if you feel the need to register on a bears website and try to convince them (admittedly rather half-heartedly) to buy property... I guess the bottom of the barrel has already been scraped?
  2. Ah, I feel better now. The answer to my first response is apparently YES, this is a stupid question. Please excuse me for not noticing (I didn't look at the salaries thread).
  3. I'd agree on your first part (that was my point - you might have a good passive income but it doesn't mean you are not an idiot - I'm talking to anyone listening too rather than to you personally ). Your second sentence also gets straight to my point. I think a lot of BTL landlords ARE (although they might not know it and probably won't accept it) eating into their capital to survive. For example, if you are getting a positive income of £80k from a portfolio of BTL property but you are losing £90k on the capital value then I'd say you are not doing nearly as well as you think you are if you ignore the capital position (or just get an estate agent to give you a higher valuation every year). Again, this is not aimed at you personally . I'd also argue that including past average capital gains is just fooling yourself (especially if these gains were never crystallised) - given the question is about what your investments DO earn.
  4. Sorry, but isn't this a stupid question? If I have a million in the bank and I'm getting 1% (£10k) am I doing better than someone with £10k in an investment doubling their money each year? Wouldn't a percentage be more useful? And should we include our own theoretical capital gains (on the back of what the bloke in the pub told me my investments are now worth) or just concrete money in the bank type earnings?
  5. And there is the crux of the BTL "business". Ignore minor details like rental cover, as long as you can find some lender willing to give you the rope you'd be stupid not to tie a noose and put it around your neck. Each to their own TTRTR... but PLEASE don't tell us how smart these "investors" are.
  6. The problem is the "re-valuation" is a theoretical number... it's easy to get your house re-valued to a higher amount, you walk in to an estate agent, tell them you paid £107k and gently explain that a lower figure than this means no business. His £122k "re-valuation" puts the property on a rental yield of below 4.5%. That MIGHT be a realistic valuation but I'd say it probably isn't (back in the world where risk should be priced rather than ignored). I see you've now moved on from one rent rise to two or three. Like I said, once the rent goes up almost 20% he'll reach cashflow break-even (assuming his outgoing don't change). And if he just gets another "re-valuation" perhaps up to £200k then he really will have made a packet. Fuggin 'ell, is it just me or is this game where you make up a new valuation for your property and (hey, presto) you're rich bulls-hit?
  7. How do you mean? He gets £450 pcm in rent and loses £80 pcm. One rent rise of almost 20% and then he's not losing money on the rent any longer? Up the rent by 30% plus and then he can start (slowly) to make up his previous loses? Double the rent and he can boast about what good cashflow he is getting from it? This is presumably on the basis that you still believe that landlords are price-setters rather than price-takers. He may be bailed out by a Greater Fool who is willing to pay yet higher prices (and take yet lower yields)... or then again it might all go tits up as the Northern Irish decide prices have gone too high.
  8. Left hand side of the page: February - Housing market on the turn A generally (typically) upbeat piece about how prices have fallen for eight months in a row and how the first signs of a robust upturn are showing through... yada, yada, yada... Right hand side of the page: September/October - Prices drift down for the 15th month (not yet updated to include the 16th?) It's nice of Wriglesworth to use the front page of his own website to highlight how fuggin useless his predictions for the future are.
  9. Ha, There was a whole bunch of bollax to be argued with in this article (although it is getting a bit boring now). You picked out exactly the bit that me laughed the loudest... this "expert" apparently didn't hear about unemployment rising each month for quite some months now and hasn't noticed that inflation has actually risen quite sharply (both admittedly from very low levels). He really should take his fingers out of his ears once in a while. So many experts, so many facts to ignore and so much HOPE to advance.
  10. OK, So now the first sales this year for my street has appeared on Nethouseprices - three in June (and none all year otherwise?), one studio, one one-bedder and one two bed/two bath I believe. It would seem there is still some life in the old dog - the two bed/two bath sold for £216k (presumably the £230k one in the last post that has sold - if so, that is about a 6% discount). The last sold in another (essentially identical) street for £210k. If I've tracked these correctly, this property came on to the market sometime around early June (so apparently sold almost immediately?). It was originally priced at £240k, dropped to £230k and then apparently sold for £216k. Two have sold in the next street this year (no comparable properties) and only one in the third street (the £210k one above). The other two are still there (£225k "under offer" and £220k "for sale"). Whether this is evidence of a healthy market or not I'm not quite sure.
  11. The thing about this site is that it doesn't have to come down to memory. Anyone who cares (not many I suspect) can look up your past posts and decide whether you are indeed a Cassandra... or just a whinger. This last comment (above) sums it up. Debate is futile here... but maybe you can get a few people thinking before they are fully brainwashed. What, by insulting them? By refusing to address serious points they put to you? You can come back as often as you like but if you do so on this basis you really shouldn't be surprised that you are not welcomed with open arms and your opinions are not taken seriously.
  12. Enjoy yourself Little Man. I'm sure you'll be reviewing your position all the way down. I remember we almost got into an intelligent debate... except you couldn't stand up your arguments. So now you've stormed off in a strop (taking your ball with you) and come back only to insult people (while also considering yourself superior). Very odd.
  13. Nobody wants your address but are you talking South East, London, North West?
  14. Horace, My point is that Roger's Law (which I admit I had never heard of until today) is clearly a "law" that no intelligent person would give five minutes of their time to. While you may be able to highlight cases of where "expert opinion" was wrong I'm sure, if you try hard enough, you will be able to find endless examples of cases where "expert opinion" was proved right. Just one example - many years ago non-experts used to insist AIDS was a "gay disease" (no, I'm not gay before you ask) and I think "expert opinion" has since proved this wrong. You could presumably counter that it is no longer expert opinion but is now a fact but "facts" typically evolve from expert opinion (Newton's view on gravity was once merely "expert opinion", as was Copernicus' opinion on whether the sun revolved around the earth or not).
  15. Do you think Horace (and his mate Roger) could also try walking off the edge of the world? I don't really mind which edge he chooses to be honest.
  16. I joined in July 2004 - just before the move over to the new website. I found the site via a (tedious) forum from Australia. I went searching for an article in The Economist on property and found a link to it (and HPC) from the Aussie forum. I had long felt prices were too high (particularly in London) and felt the interest rate rises that were going through at that time were likely to prove the killer for the market. I'm generally not a forum-type person. Generally I can't be @rsed, if I think other people are wrong or have stupid opinions I'll leave them to lose money on their own while I try to make sure I'm on the other side of such deals (and buying my first property is as big as this decision is likely to get for me for some time). But I found some interesting arguments/comments here - most notably from TTRTR but also some of HPCs wiser posters (on the bearish side). All credit to him, TTRTR made me REALLY think about his argument - the most convincing bullish argument I've heard, although I still concluded he is wrong. Why I come back (daily) is a very hard one to answer. I think, as many people have said, the arguing has been done - now it is just a case of waiting to see how it pans out (my bet hasn't changed and I can't see any reason why it is about to change). But this weird mixture of banter, intellectual debate, informative postings, anecdotal evidence and dare I say it reactionary postings and nutjob bulls keeps drawing me back in and I admit to being addicted to visting HPC (and I'm still faithful... well, OK, I occassionally visit Singing Pig for a chuckle). Now that is weird.
  17. Try Bingo. I remember our last discussion had you insisting transactions were now "back to normal" having had a brief summer lull but just yesterday I read in the Financial Times that the ratio of sales to stock had now fallen below 30% (compared with a long run average of 37.1). They seem to think things are still 20% lower than "normal"... but I doubt you'll be debating anything along these lines, I suspect you have decided to become a "guerilla bull" who nips in for ten minutes of triumph when one semi-bullish report comes out and then keeps his head down for the rest of the time. Strange really, I reckon there must be thousands of Internet forums on things I don't agree with or have no interest in but I never seem to get bored enough to go and post there.
  18. I find it particularly amusing that The FT today has seen fit to downgrade RICS to a bunch of estate agents: Headline Intro It carries on in this vein. And, interestingly, it says the "ratio of sales to stock" (how much property is actually shifting) has fallen back to below 30% (three out of ten properties shifting), which it states as "well below the long-run average of 37.1%". This rather flies in the face of those who say sales are picking up notably.
  19. Another dumfer bull. Jeez, I realise there's one born every minute but do they ALL have to come here and tell us how smart they are? Independent article Kissmyb, You do realise that report is about the RICS survey - the one that says surveyor say house prices are still falling... but they THINK they MIGHT start to rise? There is a thread all about it. Feel free to "say more" on that thread (assuming you have anything even vaguely intelligent to add). I guess you've never heard the phrase: "bull markets climb up a wall of worry, while bear markets slide down a wall of hope".
  20. Economic Sensation, Isn't this really a semantic argument? Are things 50% as bad as in 1971, 70% as bad as in 1979? Does it matter that much? I'd say the point is that there has been a severe oil price shock (it might sounds strange now but 18-24 months ago anybody suggesting oil prices were going to hit $60 a barrel would have been laughed at) and, perhaps more seriously, there is no great sign of it disappearing (given the supply/demand imbalance). You may remember we were told $40 a barrel was temporary well over a year ago. Remember that the oil price "spiked" to $30-odd in the run up to the Iraq war! With little inflation (even less if we choose your preferred core inflation measure) that means things are currently "only" roughly twice as serious as just before a war in a country with one of the world's biggest oil supplies.
  21. Thanks for replying Apollo. However, I would argue it is entirely possible for unemployment to rise rapidly without interest rates rising rapidly. For example, after Maggie came to power in 1979 interest rates collapsed (as the fears related to the oil price spike of the time eased) but unemployment rose heavily (you might remember the irony of the Tory's "Labour Isn't Working" slogan followed by a trebling or so in the unemployment level in the next few years). House prices collapsed too, certainly in real terms. Perhaps you might argue unemployment was rising as a result of these earlier IR rises but the two do not need to go hand-in-hand (and obviously we've already had a 30-40% increase in interest rates). I certainly try to look unemotionally at the evidence (it is difficult for all of us perhaps, whichever "side" you are on). It all points to there being a VERY serious problem to me. I don't claim to know exactly how, why or when house prices generally will unravel but the odds seem very much in favour to me. We seem to be in a position where houses are VERY highly priced but the economic backdrop is really not that healthy (with growth essentially debt-financed rather than organic and seemingly the need for consumers to rein in their borrowing/spending and the government to do likewise).
  22. Wow. Are things that bad now that our bright new graduates are immediate candidates for social welfare?
  23. You know I think it is testament to the change in the UK property market that this question is even being asked. Some 12/18 months ago HPCers were laughed at for even suggesting prices might fall. Today bulls are really happy that it is debatable whether prices have fallen or not.
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