thefinalbear

"He's a mortgage broker trying to talk up the market" ... he;s got his work cut out on this site then..

I think that advice like......buy a farm.....stock it with food and guns etc is more for Americans. Britain's an island. If we got through 2 world wars by growing our own food then I'm sure we could all do it again if we had to.

Or if you are poor.......simply raid a rich persons well stocked farm...

"Check what your stake is buying you - is it £1 per Pence, or £1 per 0.001 pence - it does kinda make a difference." "Be aware that the spreads may not reflect the actual market price at times - they reflect what the market thinks the market price will be." wise words........I could tell some stories based on those quotes but its too painful.

What I think is the unknown equasion in all this is secured loans. Absolutely billions of pounds worth have been sold and they currently sit on top of mortgages like a timebomb (I'm actually surprised we haven't seen a secured loan thread). Over the years people have rolled their unsecured debt into a long term secured loan when the credit card bill got too much to pay. Now that secured loan sits on to of the mortgage at an interest rate of up to 10% (or more). Redemption fees to pay off the secured loan can be thousands. And with house values falling the oppertunity just to take out a bigger mortagge and roll it up has diminished. Basically all the stats that show mortgage lending in the UK dont include secured lending stats. The problems with secured lending and their effects on the UK mortgage market are multiple: - Hamper ability to remortgage - Higher int rates than mortgages - High redemption penalties - Falling house values make it difficult to move with a secured loan in place Note: The only saving grace is the fact that secured loans were mostly sold with (expensive) payment protection. But how much use will it be if you lose your job and can keep up the loan payments but not the mortgage? Can we say uk oh........these type of loans will be the straw that broke the camels back. If your're cheering for a HPC then you won't be waiting as long as you think. There simply aint enough money in the system to keep all these payments current. Oh yeah - with relation to insolvencys - you cant put a secured loan in an IVA - the ONLY alternative is then bankruptcy. This is what will push BK's up in the coming years.

Basically the banks have clamped down on IVA's(although some agreement has been reached recently). This is because the banks can no longer keep the debt on balance sheet once someone goes into an IVA........flipside is that people are being sidelined into debt management instead of IVA's as these debts CAN be kept on balancesheet. Another problem (for the banks) is IVA firms used to charge an upfront fee of up to £7k. This means that often the first few years payments would go straight to the IVA firm an not a bean to the banks. The banks got double hit on this because if someone did not complete an IVA the bank would get bugger all. New agreements are meant to give a split of cashflow to the banks and IVA firms from the get go. Very few creditors will petition for bankruptcy unless they know they can get some cash. If you have a house and lots of equity then your personal loan company for may petition for bankruptcy, if there is a chance of recovery - but the debt would have to be high otherwise the legal costs rule this option unprofitable. Obviouly most people dont like to petition for bankruptcy themselves so there is often a no mans land of debt left wafting in the wind until some kind of action is taken.

One more tip: Know your market. Know everything there is to know. If you are looking at single stocks then make sure you are practically an expert and could easily bore someone to tears with what you know. and as only bone says watch the prices very carefully and know the high, lows and what the wider market is doing. When I started spread betting I lost a lot. What I do now is keep some cash in the account and every now and then I will have a selected punt on a stock, commodity or something else that I've been watching and feel very sure about. One of the easiest ways to lose is to just try and play everything on your screen at once. Specialisation is the key. Oh and watch out for Gold.........can be a rough ride sometimes. :-)

I think Onlybone has some good advice there. Gotta love IG's stats - the only bookies who tell you you are almost definately going to lose are the spread betting firms. For what its worth Ryanair are wingeing today: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d590e1dc-d2fc-11...00779fd2ac.html EdiT: .....and while IG are great (I've used them) if you are just starting Finspreads has very good traing material (for free) and capitalspreads has a very easy to use training account that could not get any simpler.

Rock and roll. I hope this continues. I love Gold smackdowns.

Easyjest is a good one to watch........but be careful......its already dropped a lot (see graph) If the market tanks again.....then it is likely to fall.....but its vulnerable to some upside so just watch out. Spread betting is by far and away the best way to play this market. Don't use covered warrents. They are far too expensive for what you get IMO. There are basically two strategies you can use: (if you think easyjet, or anyone else for that matter, will fall) Place a bet with a stop loss with very little leeway (so you only lose a bit if it goes up - but the flipside is small movements can wipe out your bet - one strategy is to just keep placing this type of bet again and agian with small losses but a big win when and if it falls). The other strategy is to place a bet on a fall but keep a big bankroll behind you so that if it goes up you can ride out the upside. Obviously don't bet more than you can afford to lose. Most spread betting platforms have a 'play' area where you can trade for virtual money so you can learn. P.S - obviously this is not investment advice....just friendly chatter.....always seek advice from a qualified professional etc etc...

Another fake boom? Who are they going to lend to? Everyone has had their credit rating trashed. Banks are upping risk premiums. Even is they wanted to expand money supply they can't. This is the beginning of the end for the US dollar. Int rates are now BELOW inflation. Does that look like the sign of a strong currency?

Wait. You can get a decent rate of interest on your cash at the moment. Just sit......and wait. This time next year Rodders, you'll be living in a house recently vacated by a previous property "millionaire".

50bn to bail out NR. I can handle that. Some inflation.......I'll deal with it..........but if they bail out all the banks.......WITH HALF THE UK ANNUAL BUDGET!!!........thats different. Words fail me.

Hold on.......250bn is HALF our annual budget: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_budget I am not staying. Seriously. If this happens I'm gone. No way. No How.

"It's much worse than that, the £250Bn is to fund existing loans, advances already made. So they need to find £250Bn before they can even think about any new loans" ......Sob....

Fantastic.........any chance to see the insane musings of Cramer is great fun. I pity the fools who listen to what he says and trade on his recommendations. I guess there cant be too many of them left now - seeing as how they will all have lost money big time over the last few years. I don't think Cramer will be around for much longer given the way the US is going...............incidentially Goldseek is a great site. Good reports there daily. Nice post.

One of the commenters on Mish brought this up re Egg: "By revoking the credit line of customers that have assets with Citi, the bank has taken away a potential recourse / offset in the event that those same customer's withdrawels of assets on deposit become restricted or otherwise inhibited by the bank." Uh Oh.......Egg has savers too.

Is no one going to start a Black Swan thread today then?? Cause I think one is needed.

You know what.......I have looked at emigrating......cause there is no way in hell I'm going to spend the next 10 years working to repair the economic damage that is being caused now. I love the UK, but someone else can have the job of fixing it and paying through the nose in taxes. 250 billion is insane. Frankly the banks can all go under for all I care. Global recession? Perhaps.....but I'll find somewhere not so as bad as this.

Reminds me of a song......... There may be trouble ahead.........

Cry.....I am.

250bn???!!!!! Thats it............i'm going to look at emigrating.

Its a bit pricey to use though.......still......nothings really free...they all get you in the end

"When I've applied to open bank accounts recently, one of the first questions they ask is 'have you ever been bankrupt', presumably this is a standard question. So unless you are willing to commit fraud by denying it, it will always effect you in some way." Of course - the question is asked by almost all official bodies - but you can get an account - not usually a visa debit or switch - more usually a solo/electron - the only problem faced is in the year while you are waiting to be discharged - its difficult to even get a basic account during this period. After you have been discharged you should have no problem getting a basic bank account (i.e solo/electron, accepts DD's etc....) just dont ask them for a loan!!

a very few bankrupts will remain that the official reciever has declined to discharge from bankruptcy. Reasons abound but hiding assets, fraud, legal issues etc can leave you un-discharged. But once you are discharged you are off the public register. However your details will remain with credit ref agencies for 6 years afterwards. You will also have to tell official bodies who ask e.g: FSA, Law Society, OFT, accountants bodies etc etc...... Also after you are bankrupt you can no longer become an MP!!