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Everything posted by Rock-n-Roll

  1. INMHO france + germany pushin for business tax hamonisation they will get there not this year nor next but they will get there all part of the super state plan keep on rockin!
  2. hi md euro above 80 southern exporters must be pulling their hair out? keep on rockin!
  3. read this MD http://www.openeurope.org.uk/media-centre/...ary.aspx?id=566 ireland sticking 2 fingers up at eu may come to an end so may a lot of those number crunchers as always time will tell keep on rockin!
  4. called capitalism subbly! maybe speculators driving up the price maybe just the fact that there aint enough sweet light crude to satisfy demand same applies to food INMHO we are learning fast that our wee planets resources are not infinite! keep on rockin!
  5. surprised to find nobody commenting on the fact that this wee country is now to be run by an ex estate agent and an ex terrorist alledgedly "THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER! " keep on rockin!
  6. hi statinstoinker if you have 100k burning a hole in your pocket and property is your thing why not take it across the water in parts of bonny scotland 2 houses can be bought for 100k ! which will bring in close to a grand a month begs the questions are tartan houses dirt cheap? IMHO NO! are irish house still too dear? IMHO YES! btw the above neatly demonstrates how a very astute investor i know values property rental + two zeros = house price ! obviously he hasnt bought irish property any time lately but it aint that long ago !
  7. yep its happening! http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7334054.stm rock on!
  8. forgot the link http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/Job-cut-f...tate.3953954.jp
  9. i heard the rumour last week that our favorite NW agent was to retire! thought it was just one more from the mill but see it confirmed in the Newsletter today " the harder they come the harder they fall one and all!" rock on!!!!111
  10. The worst market crisis in 60 years By George Soros Published: January 22 2008 19:57 | Last updated: January 22 2008 19:57 The current financial crisis was precipitated by a bubble in the US housing market. In some ways it resembles other crises that have occurred since the end of the second world war at intervals ranging from four to 10 years. However, there is a profound difference: the current crisis marks the end of an era of credit expansion based on the dollar as the international reserve currency. The periodic crises were part of a larger boom-bust process. The current crisis is the culmination of a super-boom that has lasted for more than 60 years. Boom-bust processes usually revolve around credit and always involve a bias or misconception. This is usually a failure to recognise a reflexive, circular connection between the willingness to lend and the value of the collateral. Ease of credit generates demand that pushes up the value of property, which in turn increases the amount of credit available. A bubble starts when people buy houses in the expectation that they can refinance their mortgages at a profit. The recent US housing boom is a case in point. The 60-year super-boom is a more complicated case. Every time the credit expansion ran into trouble the financial authorities intervened, injecting liquidity and finding other ways to stimulate the economy. That created a system of asymmetric incentives also known as moral hazard, which encouraged ever greater credit expansion. The system was so successful that people came to believe in what former US president Ronald Reagan called the magic of the marketplace and I call market fundamentalism. Fundamentalists believe that markets tend towards equilibrium and the common interest is best served by allowing participants to pursue their self-interest. It is an obvious misconception, because it was the intervention of the authorities that prevented financial markets from breaking down, not the markets themselves. Nevertheless, market fundamentalism emerged as the dominant ideology in the 1980s, when financial markets started to become globalised and the US started to run a current account deficit. Globalisation allowed the US to suck up the savings of the rest of the world and consume more than it produced. The US current account deficit reached 6.2 per cent of gross national product in 2006. The financial markets encouraged consumers to borrow by introducing ever more sophisticated instruments and more generous terms. The authorities aided and abetted the process by intervening whenever the global financial system was at risk. Since 1980, regulations have been progressively relaxed until they have practically disappeared. The super-boom got out of hand when the new products became so complicated that the authorities could no longer calculate the risks and started relying on the risk management methods of the banks themselves. Similarly, the rating agencies relied on the information provided by the originators of synthetic products. It was a shocking abdication of responsibility. Everything that could go wrong did. What started with subprime mortgages spread to all collateralised debt obligations, endangered municipal and mortgage insurance and reinsurance companies and threatened to unravel the multi-trillion-dollar credit default swap market. Investment banks’ commitments to leveraged buyouts became liabilities. Market-neutral hedge funds turned out not to be market-neutral and had to be unwound. The asset-backed commercial paper market came to a standstill and the special investment vehicles set up by banks to get mortgages off their balance sheets could no longer get outside financing. The final blow came when interbank lending, which is at the heart of the financial system, was disrupted because banks had to husband their resources and could not trust their counterparties. The central banks had to inject an unprecedented amount of money and extend credit on an unprecedented range of securities to a broader range of institutions than ever before. That made the crisis more severe than any since the second world war. Credit expansion must now be followed by a period of contraction, because some of the new credit instruments and practices are unsound and unsustainable. The ability of the financial authorities to stimulate the economy is constrained by the unwillingness of the rest of the world to accumulate additional dollar reserves. Until recently, investors were hoping that the US Federal Reserve would do whatever it takes to avoid a recession, because that is what it did on previous occasions. Now they will have to realise that the Fed may no longer be in a position to do so. With oil, food and other commodities firm, and the renminbi appreciating somewhat faster, the Fed also has to worry about inflation. If federal funds were lowered beyond a certain point, the dollar would come under renewed pressure and long-term bonds would actually go up in yield. Where that point is, is impossible to determine. When it is reached, the ability of the Fed to stimulate the economy comes to an end. Although a recession in the developed world is now more or less inevitable, China, India and some of the oil-producing countries are in a very strong countertrend. So, the current financial crisis is less likely to cause a global recession than a radical realignment of the global economy, with a relative decline of the US and the rise of China and other countries in the developing world. The danger is that the resulting political tensions, including US protectionism, may disrupt the global economy and plunge the world into recession or worse. The writer is chairman of Soros Fund Management the thoughts of a very bearish soros MD believes its just smoke and mirrors by soros to fatally wound a few financials and then pick the carcases quite possibly but having read it a few times it certainly rings true and i just cant get that tune out of my head "bye bye miss american pie" with the radical realignment of the global economy he is predicting ie economic power moving into the hands of the the oil shieks the russian oliogarchs the chinese comunist bilionaires will the world be a better place ? is this "the day the music died" jeez MD i hope you are right! rock on!
  11. obviously you have not seen this little snippet http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7324242.stm Strike hits Nike Vietnam factory More than 20,000 workers at a factory in Vietnam that makes shoes for Nike have gone on strike demanding higher pay to cope with rising inflation. The average monthly salary at the Taiwanese-owned plant is about $59 (£30), 14% more than the minimum wage. The workers, who produce about 12% of the 75 million pairs of shoes made for Nike in Vietnam a year, want a 20% pay rise and better canteen lunches. Strikes in Vietnam are becoming more common as living costs have surged. Last November, workers at a South-Korean-owned Nike factory in Vietnam walked out in a similar pay dispute. Nike spokesman Chris Helzer said: "We recognize the impact that rising inflation has had on the people of Vietnam, and hope the situation will be resolved quickly and amicably." Inflation currently stands at about 9.2% after rising 10% last year. The strike affects the Ching Luh plant in the southern part of the country. It is one of 10 factories in Vietnam that produces footwear for US athletics giant Nike. rock on!!!!!!!!!!!
  12. hi sogy nuclear power maybe the answer but it aint cheap unles you would like a 2nd hand n korean reactor off ebay in your back yard! oecd expect food price inflation of %50 over next 10 years! rock on
  13. i for one will be very happy if he buys a bank in the next 12 months i have my doubts but until such time i will just keep my powder dry! rock on
  14. hi MD i can only admire your supremely positive outlook and i sincerely wish you are right but when Soros says we are at the end of a 60 year super boom i have to take notice you often quote the figures about the great usa how it bounces out of a short recession then another long bull run but these only apply since the last world war in the hundred years previous the mighty usa was damn near as often in recession as it was not! i note soros is distinctly bearish on london and its reliance on financial services sector you are totally correct in saying that disposable income has been rising but that was on the back of cheap energy cheap food cheap consumables from china and cheap credit well without some major technology advance cheap energy was a nice dream we have discussed in detail why cheap food belongs to a bygone era even the hundreds of millons of chinese migrant workers are now demanding better pay and conditions so the consumables wont be as cheap as they once were and while the fed and BOE may cut rates the banks are not passing them onto their customers those lost billons have to be regained somehow in short the average joe who is now carrying record levels of debt will have to learn to count his pennies very very carefully over the next few years rock on
  15. hi Sogy many of the savy locals were using the cheapo euro loans they are suffering just as much as the kerrymen they will be thrown to the dogs even the lowly bank officials may get the boot but for the banks themselves i very much doubt it rules will be altered taxpayers money will be thrown at them all will be done to stop the contagion spreading all for the national good of course! oh to be a rothchild! rock on!
  16. hi Sogy " take it easy " on the poor kerryvestor just done a few sums and boy is he suffering if he bought this time last year around these parts 190-195K was the going rate add in costs comes to at least 200 k for easy counting or 294 000 euros at conversion rate of 0.68 today if he is lucky enough to find a buyer he will have lost 20% at least in sterling terms brings it down to £160000 but con rate now 0.78 so is only worth 205 000 euros! just 90 000 euros blew if he is lucky! if he becomes unlucky enough to be a motivated seller and has to resort to say Wilsons what would he get? my guestimate could be as low as £120 000 at which it still wouldnt make BTL a money spinner or 154000 euro!!! almost half his or the banks euros gone!!!!!!!!! anybody spare a dime or a sleeping tablet for a poor kerryvestor and his bank manager? rock on!!!!!!!!
  17. hi MD dont know about gold going down tuesday think the fed cut may already be priced in it certainly wont be news there seems to be real fear about this weekend in the markets a lot of bulls with smelly pants this week could very easily end up in the history books or maybe not we will soon find out perhaps we should take jim rodgers advice at the end of this clip and get our hands dirty! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYkYF70tUmA rock on!!! rednecks!!
  18. hi MD here is a link http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7294516.stm read it carefully please i will just quote the last few sentences "In February, transport secretary Ruth Kelly announced an enquiry into biofuels before committing the UK to any higher targets than those already set. The fuels' future seems uncertain, yet in a step that even green campaigners support, the industry is now investing to develop "second generation" biofuels from non-food crops like straw, woodchips and even algae. This is still some years off. Until then, the quest to find an alternative to petrol and diesel will continue to fuel debate, even if it does not fuel all our cars. The Money Programme: The Great Green Fuel Gamble? BBC2 at 1900 on Friday, 14 March. " SOME YEARS OFF the actual facts of the situation are since 74 the USA and japanese governments have thrown hundreds upon hundreds of millons at this research they have managed to create efficent bio reactors in the laboratory but in the words of one leading scientist who done his doctorate at Berkeley on bio fuels "it just isnt scalable" perhaps with a lot more years of research and lots more $ it will be for mankinds sake and the poor especially lets hope so but it aint gonna rock the the grain boat any time soon! rock on
  19. hi MD sorry cant agree with you on frisby what he neglected to tell you wheat was over $5 a bushel back in 74 adjusted for inflation that equates to nearly $25 today! at $12 now cheap as chips! and the fundamentals are far more convincing than back then as for the middle east some how i dont think george w when he pushed the shock and awe button ever envisaged pulling out in a few years time leaving all that lovely oil under iranian control which is no doubt what will happen will israel allow iran to commission their reactor? some bunker busters will be falling shortly! cheap oil not any time soon! cheap food a soon to be distant memory! add the old credit crunch into the mix = houses going for a song!!!!!!! rock on!
  20. hi MD glad to hear you like the old pork bellies just like myself beef will no doubt rocket as well but it will take slightly longer as for your assertion that the ag commodities are tied to oil i would have to disagree there are other fundamentals at play in fact 70 000 000 of them thats the number of extra mouths that have to be fed every year if my memory serves me right there was an acre of ag ground to every person on the planet in 1950 today even with vast swaths of amazonian and indonesian rainforest being brought into the equation there is just half an acre by 2050 best estimates are a third of an acre so unless there is a massive increase in productivity/acre for many it will be "a bad moon rising" your assertion that a new president may curtail the ethanol program may prove to be correct but in my opinon that is highly unlikely a lot of big hitters have invested substantial amounts in the bio refineries i believe there is over a billion $ of them currently under construction when these have been completed in couple of years the USA which up until recently exported %30 of all the grain traded on the world market will not be exporting a single ton no more mega bulkers lining up to gorge themselves on the river of grain flowing down the mississipi the cost of that little piece of morning toast may well leave you "thunderstruck"!!
  21. hi MD great to see you back still like your style just the content i have a few quibbles with you state that the bread basket areas of the world will have bumper harvests this year is this not being ever so slightly presumtious given the fact that this years quality spring bread making wheat crop has not even been planted yet in the afore mentioned areas you talk of a grain bubble and no doubt there are many speculators jumping on the band wagon but just like houses commodities run in cycles a bull run in the soft commodities usually last 15 years aprox given the fact that we are at most only 2 years into this one surely it has a lot further to run these properties yielding 30% where are they? sounds very tempting as for speculating my own thoughts cant go wrong with pork bellies 6 months they will be mega! rock on!
  22. it does not necessary cost more to build an eco friendly building. did one on a mature wooded site in england, the building was constructed and clad in timber from the site timber. Milled on site and dried using a local solar kiln. 225mm insulation in walls, using sheeps wool (not the B&Q stuff but a waste product, very cheap) beautiful modern design. thanks archy would love to see the look on my local building control officer when i would go in with that one conservative with a big C doesnt do him justice!
  23. hi statinstoinker sounds pretty good have you any more nuggets i am all ears
  24. hi archie you got my interest have an outline site for a story and half 2000 ft aprox mature wooded site no passive solar gain how much extra to build it environmentally conciously? what would it save me in the long run?
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