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lepa1972

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About lepa1972

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  1. Hi, If you want information on the level of wages in sterling, rather than as an index, then you want to look at the ONS's ASHE (Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings). Just type ASHE into Google and you will find it. From memory, this gives information on the distribution of earnings on a particular data in April. It also breaks things down in many different ways (by age, sex, industry of work, region and so on). However, it doesn't go back 20 years or so. If you want to do this it is probably best to re-scale the ASHE data using the AEI (Average Earnings Index).
  2. Nope, it was +2.4% NSA. Biggest positive seasonal is usually April. This year the seasonal factor for April was +1.7%. For May it was +1.5%. Biggest negative seasonal is usually January. January seasonal was -2.6% this year.
  3. Ok, well I think you and I are disagreeing over the definition of deflation. To my mind, deflation is a fall in the general price level. To your mind, it is a fall in the quantity of money, I think. On your definition, Japan never suffered deflation. On my definition it did.
  4. What do you mean by the money supply? Inflation is an increase in the general price level. The price level is the rate at which a basket of goods and services can be exchanged for money (broadly defined). Therefore there is a relationship between inflation and the rate of growth of the money supply (broadly defined), but they are not one and the same thing. As the rate of interest approaches zero, the demand for narrow money approaches infinity. So at low rates of interest, the link between narrow money, which is going to go through the roof during QE, and inflation is almost non-existent. I have no idea what will happen to broader measures of the money supply during QE. They may well rise too. But the link between any measure of money growth and inflation is not instantaneous. As I said before, the BoE knows how to deal with rising inflation. It does not know how to deal with deflation. Inflation is tomorrow's problem, shurely?
  5. I am sensing you may be extracting the Michael here somewhat, Mr Ralphmalph. If not, I apologise for what follows. A genuinely international UK SME should be darned competitive at the moment given the c. 30% fall in sterling over the past year. I work for an SME that has a large exposure to the UK financial sector. We have no overseas clients. Needless to say, times are hard for us at the moment.
  6. Ok, thank you. I take your point that everyone wants a lower exchange rate at the moment. But so far sterling is winning the battle on that front. I reckon that means our net trade position should improve over the next year or so, as it needs to. Still cannot see the inflation link though. Maybe I am being a bit slow. It is late.
  7. You've got me there, Injin. Can you expand? I can't see how the UK inflationary outlook is related to extra-planetary trade. Nominal demand in the UK has fallen off a cliff for the time being, as it should. The sterling depreciation is surely irrelevant - retailers will not pass it on into higher prices. I can see there may be some risk of inflation when, and if, Darling's largesse kicks in. But his largesse to date ain't very large. And if it does kick in, the BoE will react.
  8. Eh? Ok, the MPC have made mistakes, but they ain't exactly stupid. The sole aim of my post was to make the point that printing money does not equate to inflation. Look at what happened to Japan. They printed money like b*ggery and still ended up with deflation over a ten-year period. We have the ability to knock inflation on the head if we want to by raising interest rates. We do not know how to deal with deflation. That is the problem at the moment.
  9. Not sure what you mean by "owning up". Quantitative easing is basically printing money, yes. When interest rates are 0% you cannot really lower the price of money, so you have to change the quantity. As for "fekkn theiving bastards", when Japan went through QE, which is generally taken to be from 2001 to 2006, base money grew on average by 7.6% a year but prices fell on average by 0.3% a year. Japanese base money growth peaked at 36.1% year-on-year in April 2002. I don't think they have been plagued by rampant inflation since then. The UK authorities - HMT, the FSA and the BOE - have clearly messed up. But what would you like them to do differently now that they are in this position?
  10. No it is not "happy days for everyone", Sibley. This "dodgy dealing" did not suit all. In particular, it did not suit people who had bank deposits because they, after all, were the people lending money to folk who had not the slightest intention of ever paying it back. It then became bad news for the tax payer because our Dear Leader decided no bank would be allowed to fail. I am confident that you know all this Sibley, because I am sure you are not as dim as you like to make out.
  11. I think you are dead right Juvenal. Compare and contast the property for sale here: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-152...p;mam_disp=true ... with the property for rental here: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-237...p;mam_disp=true The implied rental yield is 3.5%. I would suggest a sensible rental yield is 7.0%. On that basis, either the rent is half what it should be, or the price is twice what it should be. I know where my money lies ... [Edited for typo]
  12. As I thought, the consensus view so far seems to be that it is people leaving the UK. The government data on net migration are notoriously sh*te (I believe they are based on the International Passenger Survey, a very small voluntary survey of people coming into or out of literally a handful of UK air and sea ports). I am just amazed at how quickly the net migration effect ripples through the country. I was forced to move from one rental property to another a year ago because my landlord got repossessed (by Northern Rock - it is still on the market, at a whopping 10% off the initial asking price, but that is another story). At the time I had literally no choice. Now I am overwhelmed. And Lewes is not exactly an immigration hotspot.
  13. I have nicked this quote from the following article posted by RB: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...ding-empty.html Sorry RB, but I wanted to come at it from a different angle. What I don't understand is, where has everybody gone? I have been biding my time renting in a quaint sussex town. Recently the rental market has been flooded with properties that were previously available to buy. And these properties are of a far higher quality than the usual rental property in my area. The leading rental agency in my town would usually carry two or three 3/4/5 bed properties, now they have more than ten in this category. I can understand that the odd town here and there might have a few forced landlords as people relocate from one part of the country to another. But as far as I can tell, this seems to be happening on average across the UK. So, where is everyone going? Logically, either young folk are staying at home with their parents for even longer, or there has been a net exodus from the UK. The latest government data actually show an increase in net migration into the UK, but these data are pretty old and relate to the whole of 2007: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=260 Views please? [Edited for a typo]
  14. IMO, financial markets and respondents to the Reuters poll alike have massively overdone the chance of a big cut in December. Towards the end of his opening remarks, King states that the fan charts are conditioned on a number of assumptions, one of them being that there is no relaxation of fiscal policy relative to currently published plans. He then says "therefore the fan charts overstate the extent to which the Committee believes output will decline and inflation will fall below target". Effectively, he is saying the Committee does not believe the fan charts. Broon (ooh, sorry, Darling's the Chancellor now isn't he?) is almost certain to announce a massive fiscal loosening in the PBR a week on Monday. This will alter the Committee's view of where output and inflation are heading. I am not saying rates are on hold next month, but they might be. As for another 150 basis point cut? No way ...
  15. Sorry to dissapoint CL ;-). I am generally seen by those who know me as a "reasonable", or some might even say boring individual. But much as I appreciate almost all of RB's posts, I think he is wrong here. Equity markets are all over the shop at the moment, but that is mainly because they don't know how to view the current recession. We are not headed for financial armageddon, merely a very unpleasant time, and they don't know how to price that. The re-capitalisation was undoubtedly a good idea, though maybe a bit too late. I believe, and sincerely hope that the banking system will survive to lend to those firms and individuals who are solvent. Let's hope it does no more and no less than that. [Edited several times, for several typos. It is late after all]
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