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House Price Crash Forum


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About ksera

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    HPC Newbie
  1. sorry as it must have been sai 100 times before if it is called bs it probably is bs
  2. cant remember how long bcci depositors had to wait for their 15k max anyone with better memory ? thanks
  3. all the mortgages are administered by nr ,so when they are redeemed or repaid the funds flow from the borrower back to nr. but what happens if those mortgages were the security for the granite securitisations does nr just keep the money and use it to repay the treasury ,ie can the liabilities be pushed into granite and leave the granite bond holders pick up all the debt whilst allowing taxpayer to recover the loans quickly
  4. many thanks for such a clear explanation was the need to keep new business coming in to feed the granite monster what caused the relaxation of underwriting standards.( which then spread across the mortgage industry) in other words did they have to keep selling new mortgages at virtually any cost just to keep the flow of business- almost like a pyramid sales scam if so this business model was always certain to fail at some stage where were the auditors where were the rating companies where were the regulators
  5. hum back to the 64000 oz question who knows the answer do we in the west really have the discipline and culture for deflation ? i am afraid i am reluctantly and too late beginning to see where gf and cg are coming from the timescale is impossible to predict ,1 or 20 years, but we seem headed for very changing times there is absolutely nothing that the individual can do to change destiny but it is so interesting to see how we each react to the unfolding situation thanks tor everyone on this site iam just beginning to really learn
  6. recession = hairloss? depression = sounds too medical accepting we are heading there what could be coming a ) hyper inflation ( greater than 50%pa) all/most prices rise, salaries follow property may hold nominal value but devastated in real terms danger is that salary rises fail to pace cost of living and that high interest rates make mortgages unaffordable real terms Hpc but property purchase still costs arm or leg (as always) deflation economic activity grinds to halt jobs hard to keep or to get real sense of insecurity and danger money almost impossible to get ( mortgages) sentiment to own property evaporates c) mix of above - something new- perhaps the worst all imported items inflationary but all domestic including salaries deflationary all the insecurity . increasing fiscal cost, increasing cost of living . really hard to buy property ( as always apart from last 15 yrs) property acquisition is ( and really always only has been ) for really committed people in it for the long term lifestyle sacrifice has always been needed so that you can buy that house to call yor own and on which you can lavish all that costly diy and customisation ( yeah whatever hapens this makes it yours and worth doing - you cant hide that feeling) property ownership is only right for those that really want it and are passionate for it- who wants to live in someone else' s house you have to be master in your own homw the time is coming where we can buy right and over the mediium to long term do well . the market is very general but in a falling market the bargains you thought would never come turn up . Getting them never has been easy but buy for yourself not for investment , dont be too ambitious, stiick to your visions . in the next few years many can find the dream at the cost of those that were in it just for the money in reality if you cost out all the time and money you spend in alifetime of property ownership you probably only come out just ahead but it is ahead , you have something to show for it, and it has to have beem fun alll the way now for that self build plot.................................
  7. what are the rough parameters of hyperinflation in percentage terms back in the late 1970's i can justv remember some fantastic ( to me ) pay rises year on year to me at that time 20 to 30 % seemed normal and didn't really seem to cause any long term devastation. on the otherhand zimbabwe now is a real disaster at what percentage point does inflation become a real problem ?
  8. absolutely anything else is speculation life is for living however soime bubbles can look good
  9. a year's food and booze stock at least a couple of thousand gallons of diesel a ready to go sailing yacht perhaps a Welsh hill farm
  10. dont do it on borrowed money at all costs in reality you never really own land or any property for that matter you are just a custodian ( is the same true for gold also ?) the last 20 acres i bought ,and still hold ,was £1500 per acre 6 years ago and i am still not that comfortable with it at the time no one else wanted it but it adjoined our house everyone at the time said we overpaid Yes the space and PERCEIVED freedom is great but it could turnout to be very illiquid. Times are changing very fast . we are beginning to see the effects of the 'global poor' rising to the challenge of claiming their fair share of things- tv, the internet . the jet engine, education have quite rightly opened pandoras box for us middle class westerners perhaps i am too bearish or are the following likely to be good investments for a little while at least: a years stockpile of food and booze ay home at least a couple of thousand gallons of diesel at home no debts ability to grow your own food a fully commissioned and ready to go sailing yacht if it doesnt keep you fed and warm why do you want it or need it? ps i found this site as i was very uncomfortable about the ridiculous cost of property . i just could not make the numbers of buying/ owning make sense . ( i still have not found a buyer though) but seem to have found a world crisis unfoldingwhich i had no idea about -it is very exiting i dont have a problem with falls of 75% but we must be clear real or nominal ? the question for the nest two or three years is INFLATION OR DEFlLATION inflation ( how about 25% electric rises)- static book/ nominal prices will soon give us this fall deflation - if it really happens- who cares about property anyway ,its jobs and food and war to worry about Best quote on thi site i have seen Dubsie- hpc will not make it easier for anyone (to buy a house......) I have found some fantastic people and opinions on this site with absolutely enormous experience and intelligence who are willing, by posting here for nothing , to stand up and be counted. Human spirit is still alive.
  11. yes it surely depends how much reliance the lender places on the form in deciding whether to lend. if the data was really material to the contract you can be sure it would have been checked out by the lender. unfortunately market practice seems to have has changed over the past few years with previously factors considered as critical no longer so important
  12. I hope you dont mean - fix bayonets
  13. it seems that we have had the holiday of a lifetime and now and the credit card bill are beginning to come in. It is scarey to find all those items that we spent but have forgotten about but we are going to have to repay it somehow . The first priority is to not to panic and keep things as normal as possible, we must keep the banks afloat at all costs. Technically if you add up the known and contingent bad debts the question of solvency asries but by maintaining liquidity from cb the banks can continue to trade and stand a very good chance of trading out of the problem over the next few years. The required ongoing level of support dependent on how fast contingent losses are crystallised into actual losses . Ultimately these losses will have to be covered by new recapitalisation and future trading profits. Who is going to really pay for this now? The cb part of the support comes from government ( taxes) - unless we can make the rest of the world contribute through inflation / currency devaluation. This worked in the 1960 's and 1970's but relies on high levels of wage inflation. I dont see the private sector employers playing ball with this now - jobs would just be exported and we could end up with a real mess. This means that we shall have to pay for it ourselves (like japan ?) Come on good old middle england time to pay up . for sure the 'sub prime' sectors of the economy cant/ wont contribute much and the rich dont pay uk tax anyway. Lets start with basic tax 30%, vat 25% ,double council tax - all probably nowhere near enough
  14. quote bbc 4th dec- nr staff 2% annual bonus plus £200 christmas payment plus annual payrise 4% police 1.9% value to society? i dont understand- can anyone explain ?
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