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mcoupland

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About mcoupland

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    HPC Newbie
  1. Why 50% fall peak to bottom? The reason I say half price is that would bring average earnings into line with long term trends (I know this number is debatable but its a guide). In addition it is often forgotten that if prices do not move within a one year period then they have fallen in real terms. 50% is soon reached with this in mind (prices are likely to fall twice as fast as they went up now the funding taps have been turned off). Bubbles often collapse through to the point below long-term trends - for example the dot com collapse - the FTSE fell from 6900 in 2000 down to 3200 in 2003. As
  2. The last time I posted on here was in 2005. I stated then (as most others did) was that it was all about cheap credit and speculation. I bought a house in 2006 which is about a home rather than an 'investment' (borrowing 1*joint income for 280k). My prediction as of 3 months ago is that prices will halve from peak (2007) to bottom by the Olympics in 2012. This time might be different from previous crashes as information is so freely available - like sold prices, searching on the internet for reduced prices etc. All this means that is might be much quicker to reach bottom - maybe 3 years. Whene
  3. Betfair odds for August MPC: -0.25% = 10-1 No change = 4-1 +0.25% = 1-5 I expected this to be the other way round..
  4. Monthly take home £8k Rent £325 Bills £50 Car £100 Food £100 Misc £500 Now saving about 60k a year. I refuse to waste even £1 of this on overpaying for some crap house. Saved £175k over last 4 years. I dont want to have a mortgage at all if possible and if prices don't fall to long term average then I'm off to the states..
  5. All betting exchanges show that it is 99% certain that they will stay the same in Feb.
  6. At the moment we are talking amongst ourselves about all the same issues. We need to get organised and coordinate press contact and lobby local/national politicians. This needs a consistent, simple message that is spread right through the media on a continuous basis. The attitiude of The Economist to this issue is very consistent with our own and this needs to be spread around the media which at present presents an unbalanced picture. This does need to happen as the media do drive attitiudes of individuals. There needs to be meetings / direct communication / organisation in order to start this
  7. we are both IT contractors. Based in various places - SE, midlands etc
  8. bubbleturbo you have exactly the same outlook as myself. not all ftb's are unable to buy, it is about being unwilling to pay so much for an asset that is simply not worth it (I see a house as only that, it is an unproductive asset). my partner and myself make 150-200k and when it comes to buy a place we will use every way to hammer the price down.
  9. The betting exchanges are good guides for the direction of interest rates. February odds show a 90% chance of no change..there is a 6% chance of a 0.25% cut and 4% chance of a 0.25% rise.
  10. lower interest rates than they were - that downshift started it all there as all other places. very little lending control exists. the prices have been rising in all areas of SA, not just the tourist areas.
  11. My g/f is from SA.. Lower interest rates = more demand = increased prices = 'can't lose with property' = 'don't worry about rental value when property value increases' =35% per annum increases (dropping now though) dangerous as SA economy not great and rand is very volitile. Problems just around the corner..
  12. This is my first post - I have been reading this forum for a few weeks now. Firstly, the following link shows what should be good reading for Phil,Kirsty and other similar muppets.. http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/1...4976987-0657201 My opinion is that the major reason for house price rises has been the mass availability of cheap money. People have literally mortgaged their future believing that they are being clever being able to borrow huge sums of money for relatively low immediate payments. This spirals prices ever higher due to increased demand. Prices have risen massively acro
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