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House Price Crash Forum


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About baserateisirrelevant

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  1. This has probably been mentioned elsewhere on here, but what is it with the Times. Not only are they, in my opinion, the worst rampers of the property market, they are also ramping the broader economy. Hosking detailed "20 reasons to be cheerful". I don't have time to deconstruct every one of his points, but of particular note: 1. He says the FTSE is a better indicator of UK economic growth than historical GDP. This is bollocs. 2. He applauds the spectatular low interest rates many households now face, ignoring the destruction to those living off savings. 3. He mentions house prices are rising. 4. Foreign investors apparently love UK gilts. I think he is forgetting the banks re-purchase scheme underwriting short end gilt issues. 5. Apparently inflation is a far lesser evil than deflation, and the risk of inflation not deflation is a cause to celebrate. This guy is a complete moron and the Times should be ashamed of running with this piece.
  2. Get some REIT exposure now in singapore. Sterling's rally wont last, and yields are >11% on some of the sing reits.
  3. Let's all feel sorry for the hard working family. That is what the bbc want the sheeple to think.
  4. Cheap stereotypes from the BBC. Teeing up the sheeple to support bail outs for hard working families. What a load of crap.
  5. Every issuer, corporates, governments, worry how their bonds trade in the secondary market as it indicates required yield on new issues (assuming you can issue at all).
  6. If we end up with 20% inflation, I cannot believe prices will continue to fall in nominal terms. My thinking is that the debt of the UK consumer has to either be written off by the banks (wont happen) or paid back by consumers (wont happen); so the only option left is to inflate and further debase the currency (this has been happening since 1926). I cannot believe that house prices will fall in nominal terms if inflation hits 20%. If I have certainty of income stream, a fixed rate liability, inflation will pay back my mortgage surely?
  7. Yes, I know inflation will be terrible for the broader population. Inflation was terrible in the 1970's but it stil paid my parents' mortgage off.
  8. If I believe some form of hyper inflation is on the way (10-15%), say in the mid term (3-5 yrs tops), isn't it better to buy a place now on a 10 year fixed rate, at a mortgage I can comfortably afford, and allow inflation to erode the debt?
  9. Rogers himself admits his timing is terrible. He is spot on though, Sterling has finished. Just because we have a 3 month rally against other fiat currencies we are supposed to take this as proving him wrong. The purchasing power of sterling will continue to erode, and a major currency crisis is on the way. Thanks Gordon.
  10. Good time to buy into TBT? (this is x2 short long dated UST). Unfortunately no such ETF for gilts. http://www.proshares.com/funds/tbt.html?Cu...e%20and%20Chart
  11. the only reason there wasn't a crash earlier was due to the interventionist policies of the Fed / Boe keeping rates artificially low, and the US $800bn deficit pumpig further liquidity into the world. Those who called the crash in 03/04 were correct from a fundamentals perspective.
  12. No he is not. Irrespective of the politics, at some stage rates are going to shoot up (inflation, currency crisis).
  13. In terms of workforce, 94% unemployed. Farms are also under producing.
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