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About swiss88888

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    HPC Poster
  1. Friends of mine tried to sell their 2 bed flat about 16 months ago asking for purchase price in 2007 + 6%. Eventually they reduced the asking to the purchase price, apparantly got an offer which they didn't take as was too low (I imagine probably about -20% what they paid as a guess). The flat was taken off the market after about a year and they are still there. The clock is ticking though as a baby is on the way. The way I see it is they will capitulate and take a loss on the sale, whether this is in 6months or 3 years is anyones guess.
  2. may be an obvious point but repo's are key to a significant HPC. They are still well under what they should be, due to forbearance and very low IRs. The numbers below are from the CML (they used to publish these for free a few years back, now are harder to come by). The five year period from 1991 to 1995 saw 301k repos, the 5 years from 2008 to 2012 (forecast) is 204k. There is also about 15% more mortgages now then there was in 1991. Therefore we're probably at least 115k repos light of where we should be without all the govt interference (should be more?). anyway if the repos do increase this should help the supply side for a real HPC, as those people waiting before they sell their property "until prices rise again" will find it very hard if there is multiple repo's on their street selling for discounts...... (ps. I know repos are a tragedy for 'hard working' people etc. but there is also a lot of scumbag landlords and flippers who should and hopefully will get burnt) Year repos 1985 19,300 1986 24,100 1987 26,400 1988 18,500 1989 15,800 1990 43,900 1991 75,500 1992 68,600 1993 58,600 1994 49,200 1995 49,400 1996 42,600 1997 32,800 1998 33,900 1999 30,000 2000 22,900 2001 18,300 2002 12,000 2003 8,500 2004 8,200 2005 14,600 2006 20,900 2007 26,200 2008 40,000 2009 46,000 2010 36,300 2011 37,000 2012 45,000
  3. I was happy in the UK (London) but I moved to Australia just over a year ago for other reasons. It is tough building a new life - new job, make new friends, establish new routines and get to know a new place. It gets easier over time and it is rewarding once you start to feel more 'at home'. A big problem is house prices - they are more out of reach in Aus than in the UK! Places I would look to buy in London are a lot cheaper than places I would look to buy here (Sydney), at current exchange rates & income multiples... (it hard to compare on a like for like basis). Anyway if you get the opportunity to live/work abroad I would say take it as it is a great experience and you will always have your past friends/experiences etc. Just don't expect the grass to be greener cos it ain't.
  4. it might be stating the obvious but I've always thought this was the key stat for a proper HPC. The CML used to publish the repo stats going back past the last crash. The peak was around 75,000 per year in the early 90s, however there was a number of years in a row where the annual number was 50k - 60k+ so the total over these few years was well over 150k. I once compared the % of total mortgages back then to the 75k number and applied it to the current level of loans, an equivalent peak today would be over 100k repos per year. (the CML has since only made these numbers available to memebers, but they could probably be found with a bit of digging). Repos this time for whatever reason (low IRs, reluctance of banks to issue repo, etc...) are no where near these numbers, so until they increase a lot I doubt we'll see major drops in prices needed for a HPC like the one in the 90s.
  5. AOFM to buy extra $4bn mortgage securities April 8, 2011 AAP The commonwealth will invest an extra $4 billion in mortgage securities to boost smaller players in the lending market. "Today I announce that I have directed the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) to invest a further $4 billion in high-quality, AAA-rated Australian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) to help smaller lenders continue to offer competitive loans to families and small businesses," Treasurer Wayne Swan said in a statement on Friday. "This brings the government's total investment in the RMBS market to $20 billion since late 2008 and continues our strong support for this vital funding market that helps smaller lenders compete with the big banks." Advertisement: Story continues below Mr Swan said the global financial crisis caused a major disruption to international capital markets reducing liquidity and funding access for smaller lenders. "Without the government's support, many smaller lenders would have withdrawn from the market, reducing competitive pressure on the big banks," he said. "The government's existing $16 billion RMBS investment has helped put downward pressure on borrowing costs, helping the RMBS market again become a cheaper source of funding for smaller lenders."
  6. I moved from London to Sydney, findings so far are: bad points: I work much longer hours than London I get paid less (even taking into account the favourable AUD exchange rate) 5 days less holiday a year (pretty much everyone here gets 20 days only) food is more expensive general good are more expensive and there is much less choice public transport is bad (and the trains are generally very dirty even compared to UK) house prices are relativly higher than those in the UK, and look to be going up as speculation and lending is still rife finding a place to rent is very hard - demand is high so need to work hard to find a decent place good points: weather is generally warmer (although can get a bit too hot) countryside and beaches are nice people I know with kids say it's a great place for them to grow up (I don't have kids) ..that's about it
  7. This is a waste of time - if you want to tax people who earn more why not put up um.....income tax? lots of people with degrees do earn more (doctors, lawyers etc.) however lots of others need degrees but don't necessarily earn that much, eg. social workers. So instead of taxing graduates why not focus on high earners using - I know! - income tax! it's a disgrace that Vince's generation didn't pay a penny for their degrees (even got given grants) but now he thinks it is ok to waste his tax payer funded time coming up with rubbish ideas like this. maybe Vince's generation could help fund education by paying more income tax - oh wait that won't be very popular. Let's tax graduates instead.
  8. I'm sure there are plenty of (fortunate/lucky/wise?) people like yourself who bought their BTL as a sensible investment at a good price and arranged a good mortgage rate at an opportune time, who will be able to survive low rental incomes & returns from your investment........ However there are a large amount of BTLs which were bought during the boom at inflated prices, in bad areas, not great mortgage terms etc. where the (unfortunate/unlucky/foolish) landlord is struggling to pay the mortgage, maintenance of the property and is sitting on negative equity yet to be realised.
  9. prices are still clearly way too high and there is more to come from the correction/crash. before the crash people were specultaing what will cause it - most were saying big increases in interest rates (due to rampant inflation) or increases in unemployment. I don't remember anyone saying a credit crunch driven by sub prime US loans. at the current time there are a couple of big factors - economic stimulation (quantitative easing, low IR, VAT reduction) and a forthcoming general election which are distorting the picture. It will take years for things to fully run their course and there will be unforseen events and unforseen impacts from current events as there was recently before the crash. hopefully once the people taking out the big multipliers today have defaulted in 3 years or so the lenders will be forced to pull the plug but you never know!
  10. How do you save up £40k on £37k a year at the age of 26?!! you must not eat much or go on holiday but I'm impressed! Again I'm in a similar position to a lot of those on the thread, I can buy in my area but I don't really want to as: - I can rent a better place for the same money - I truely believe house prices will fall over the next few years (in real terms) - I don't want to lose the flexibility of being able to move easily - I want to save a big a deposit as possible (to reduce mortgage payments and levels of risk if anything goes wrong with job, health etc.) I might get forced into it buying by the missus if we have kids etc. & if that happened I wouldn't be that bothered about giving up the above, however while I still can I'll rent as long as possible as I think it puts me in a better position for the future (& when I eventually buy a house)
  11. I thought it was great. Regarding the wacking off, suicide etc. it's not very realistic but there is nothing wrong with a bit of artistic license to make it more watchable. Sarah Harding's acting wasn't great though.... I was wondering if any people watching it were say "that's us!" at the couple struggling with payments, losing their house. According to the CML 250,000+ people are 3 months or more in arrears so I guess some of them were watching. Also were there any people who have been brainwashed into the property only goes up mantra watching it who thought "home under the hammer has been lying to me all these years!"?
  12. I'm in a similar position to a few on this thread: 25% plus deposit, good salary etc. and I would buy tomorrow if the price was right. I just can't justify to myself paying the sort of price which is available today, and I can't be bothered putting in offers way below asking prices just to get abuse. Therefore I am trying my best just to ignore buying for a couple more years, by then hopefully most of the air will have come out of the bubble.
  13. the HPC will only really get going when there are a lot of repo's - these really drive the price down as they did in the 1990's - check out the stats, there was a peak of 70k repo's plus followed by a few years of 50k. Once the artificial support of HPI is removed repo's will really motor, I think 100k a year will happen. there is also the impact of rio's (rent out instead), a lot of people who want to sell but are waiting for house price increases. When the penny drops this ain't gonna happen a lot of property will come on the market. Prices will tank. repo's and rio's.
  14. I am British and it is not offsensive to say that a lot of people aren't really interested in doing much after work, or who are happy just to stick to their routine. My point was London offers a lot of things for people who want to get out there and do it. I was saying that London is a good place - not that other places are bad. there is a lot to do in Manchester/Liverpool etc. but you can't compare them to London. I think referring to the rave scene/Madchester etc. is a bit out of date?! There are plenty of very good club nights in London & around if you look. Manchester & Liverpool still have (always had) a great live music scene - but where do the musicians move to when they make it? oh yeah London, obviously cos it is a sh!thole.
  15. I live in London and it is great! As long as you live in a nice part and have enough money to enjoy the good things here that is - but isn't that the same as everywhere else? (I'm sure there must be some bad parts of Vancouver?) There is loads of stuff to do and if I ever want to get away there is 5 airports accessible by public transport, and train stations in all directions. I have lived in other parts of the UK and when I moved to London quite a few people said to me when I moved "why do you want to live in London - you have all you need here?". Fact is those people ideas of a night out is a trip to tescos, and would probably eat out once a year. There is nothing wrong with that but if you like variety in life and the chance to meet interesting people and do interesting things every day then London is pretty much the best place to live. I know people from all over the world and they choose to live in London - I think that says a lot more than these surveys. I have also spent a lot of time in various cities in Australia and I genuinely can't see what the fuss is about, again I know plenty of Aussies who live in London and have no plans to go back unless they have to. Despite all the above I won't spend my whole life here due to the high cost of property - to have a good size house with garden etc in a good area costs more than I would ever be able to spend. then again due to massive HPI over the past decade this could also be true for a lot of places.
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