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House Price Crash Forum


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About meedge

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  1. This is INSIDER buy/sell ratio - basically, the ratio of company directors buying versus selling their own stock. Insiders KNOW what the prospects are for their company and what they believe its performance and underlying value (given equities values are ultimately supposed to reflect the value of the stream of future dividends). They are uniquely placed to judge the true value of their company.
  2. Um, public and private debt... Do you live on another planet - where have you been the last couple of years? The unions are dead. When it becomes clear that the choice for the public sector is accept what's got to happen or lose your job people will shape up quicky,especially since benefits will shrink dramatically in the future. What's more, there's plenty of public support for breaking the civil service pension - wait till the papers go after the MP's final salary schemes, and they will, because we are looking at many many years of decay with no means to fund it. The reaction you've seen on here proves this point. Taking money from the productive part of society and giving it to the unproductive part on the scales we have seen over the last few years, together with the general macroeconomic environment, will be shown over the next 3 to 5 years as a massive massive mistake. That said, even I was surprised recently when there were comments that the procurement arm of the MOD should be disbanded and provided by the private sector. This would now appear to be the way forward with everything - prison, railways, energy infrastructure, and now whole government departments. Still at your age you're probably still better off from a retirement point of view in the public sector, just don't think I could live with the idiocy and brain numbing stupidity you have to endure working there. I'll never forget working with the DTI and MOD, and the policies they employed that we almost the exact opposite of efficient and logical. Would drive me mad.
  3. I work for lloyds group. Mortgage is treated as a benefit in kind and you have to pay tax on it... Its treated as the difference between the rate they offer and some standard rate in the market that the ir set which I believe is 4.5% at the moment. Hence its not anywhere near as cheap as you think and you have to ask yourself, is the saving you are paying just the premium for protecting yourself against potential massive rises in inflation a couple of years out from here? That said, if you own outright, there is a clear arbitrage opportunity...
  4. The reason many believe that is because when you remove moral hazard, the system itself is on a path to destruction. Banks will take on silly risks knowing they will be bailed, and the attitude of all shifts such that the underlying assumptions on which a functioning economic system are based are broken. We might emerge in a silly better shape that the 30's in the short term but we will literally destroy the system in the near future because we are telling all parties involved in it to adopt idiotic behaviours in pursuit of gains with impunity against loss.
  5. Pension funds regularly balance assets, and ultimately all money syphoned off doesn't come from nowhere. systematic risk free arbitrage is stealing...
  6. That link doesnt have any real substance to it. Could you give some real data on newly discovered oil fields, protected demand for oil (usage growth) and remaining supply estimates for existing fields please? Long term trends are usually the simple impact of looking at the impact of compound growth in a world that thinks in straight lines.
  7. This is a flawed argument because if scientists were after the cash, a. You would have many more dissenting voices since oil companies fund ,much much better and b. Career Scientists aren't interested in money. As an example, having obtained a phd in theoretical physics you could either stay in academia and get paid less than a state school teacher or go work in the city and get paid about 5 times what a teacher gets as a starting salary. Secondly, the truth on peak oil lies somewhere in between the views of the oil industry and the panic of the doomsday. The oil industry is carrying on as it is and the tendency of everyone is to think everything will carry on as before, that is clearly wrong. The doomsday believer underestimate the ability of humanity to make drastic progress under dramatic pressure to do so... We will have to transition to other fuel sources fairly iminently and I believe it will be tremendously painful, but we will do it... There is massive scope for efficiency saving in energy use, some limited scope for improved tech in oil recovery and will very high oil prices will stimulate investment in nuclear, renewable etc. The problem is that takes time and pain and I think there will be several decades of real pain and hardship in western countries. This is all course discounting the impact of potential climate change complications, but hey....
  8. I would suggest that you sell. firstly you circumstances dictate it, secondly, its a reasonable price in this market which will nosedive in a few more months. People seem intent on trying to avoid selling 'at a loss' but that implies that the nominal value of the house is the real value. Look at the last housing crash and see what a pound nominally will have bought before and after. Prices 'recovered' but they devalued against other things. They didn't really recover until they started inflating with credit. Get over the nominal figure and take the real one, then buy somewhere better down the line.
  9. I was worried about high and possibly hyper inflation, but the debt deflation arguement is strong. However, what I see in the Haliwide stats makes me start to become very concerned. The markets have gone loopy, house prices are now rising (outside of Mar-May), and interest rates are effectively zero. At the same time, wages are actually decreasing. If we carry on like this, there are two ways this can go: 1. Massive nominal collapse in asset prices (i.e. not US style, but literally 90% off or more) and return of asset prices to sensible levels in real terms. 2. Massive nominal increases in asset prices and greater nominal increases in wages, and a return of asset prices to sensible levels. 3. Intervention of central banks with massive currency devaluation. The difference being in 1 savers are going to get rich, and in 2 savers are going to be screwed plus we all get monopoly money. I can't see how 2 can happen because there is no wage growth, which kind of implies we are all accelerating towards the brick wall of 1 or 3. I guess the Fed and BOE are desperately praying for strikes and wage increases around the corner.
  10. Yeah, but the liquidity provided isn't obligated. that is seriously relevant and that is where the fee should be earnt, otherwise it is simply arbitrage. Or as I like to call it, legalized stealing. do you think maybe increased volatility is correlated to an increased proportion of trades from these sources in volume? I think the answer is a definite yes...
  11. They have no intention at all of a rate rise, it absolutely will not happen. The plan is to threaten people with rate rises will debt is inflated away in a controlled fashion. Raising rates now would cause massive defaults. If they can't inflate in a controlled way then it will be uncontrolled but it is inevitable. So all the while expect whatever lie serves the purpose. Expectation is reality in the mind of the economist.
  12. The point is, I think there's a chance rates will not rise for a very long time. The next government will slash and burn large parts of public services, and may get control of debt in time to not be punished by higher bond yields, and the continued downturn in business may make bonds more attractive. QE may start again but be less maligned with a clear repayment plan for UK. Inflation will be significantly above the official interest rate. This means nominally house prices go nowhere, in real terms the hope will be that inflation eats away at them. Anyone in cash gets screwed. It will all take years and years to resolve.
  13. Consume. Consume. Consume. We are locusts. The end game of this model of existence seems clear. We need motivation for productive activity beyond consumption, and to remove the need to consume to sustain an economy.
  14. We are in a strange period of calm, but with wage growth looking like its going negative, taxes looking like they are going much higher, unemployment increasing markedly, mortgage finance now at its max level (well below peak levels of lending) and not high enough to stabilise prices, and the prospect of further financial crisis as all this impacts on asset prices and hence capital adequency, it seems we have a LOT further to go yet. We are in the place we are at the moment because lots of government have chosen to defer the pain in the hope it wil go away, as have most of the public in a hole. Meanwhile, the situation continues to deteriorate for all...
  15. RBS didn't realise/accept it was literally about to collapse until literally days before hand. Remember, no bank wants to be seen to actually need it, it causes massive loss of confidence. Who was it that was 'forcing' GS to accept money? In the main, GS old boys in the treasury and the fed. The US is not the UK. They abhor the idea of government involvement in business and socialisation at all levels, they don't have a history of Nationalised Rail, Aerospace & Defence or Health Industrys. GS took the money because without it they WOULD have collapsed or because it suited them. If they could have obtained it through the market and wanted to, they would have. Sure, they'll put up a 'fight', market confidence is everything. Barclays is a different matter. They needed the money, but they were able to raise it through other means (completely screwing their shareholders so they can keep paying big bonuses).
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