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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by blackhole

  1. 1 minute ago, squeezed said:

    It is not possible, sir, to be evicted right now. The govt has made evictions of tenants illegal few months ago. Also, what does your partners cousin and his/her other half do to earn this kind of income, being 30? Don't they trust your advice to buy? Otherwise, why not purchase some property in this fair city, with this kind of stable income they could have become BTL landlords themselves. 

    Agreed virtually everyone I know with that kind of level of income vs expenses, has already brought in.

    They'll be a huge queue of evictions to process at the courts when they do come back online.... so they'd have plenty of time tbh.

  2. 1 minute ago, JawKnee said:

    I think Blacks might be in trouble. Taking orders but not dispatching any goods or providing refunds to customers for a couple of weeks now. £200 I'm probably never going to see again. Thought I was the only one but it's all over social media.

    On a credit card? 

    Might be a good time to start using credit cards again tbh for the protection they offer (with full balance direct debits, ofcourse).

  3. Just now, cnick said:

    Just for a laugh I did ask our local MP if she thought it would be a good idea that children should be educated that they will be liable for the debt incurred by previous governments......they won't be able to save for their own pension, whilst paying their teachers pensions...... ?

    Would you participate into this system if you knew you'd be a serf and not retire?  

  4. Just now, Smiley George said:

    Then went on unchallenged to full on bull mode, stamp duty holiday, prices only going one way, unprecedented activity in office and online..blah blah blah. Zero challenge from interviewer, zero mention of the unprecedented economic situation or the pandemic.

    The average person is god awful at assessing risk, so for now (whilst furlough scheme is in place) this will simply act as confirmation bias.

    I still don't see how they're going to overcome the wave of unemployment by the year end, though.  Not without taking some very extreme measures at least (which in itself, would potentially set off many alarm bells).

    4 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

    Oh this expert, yep a London EA. Boils my piss that these get free airtime to spout their shite completely unchallenged.

    If anything it shows how panic'd the VIs (including LBC) are.  Lovely stuff.

    Thanks for sharing mind.

  5. 1 hour ago, Speed1987 said:

    QE 2.0 is here and every central bank is at it, buying a home isn't just about timing a crash and trying to get one over on the banks.

    Et oh https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/09/feds-assets-drop-for-4th-week-another-85-billion-4-week-total-248-billion-big-chunk-short-time/ 

    I don't recall them reversing the injection so quickly in previous QE cycles at least.

  6. 1 hour ago, Speed1987 said:

    If the person has the means to pay down a mortgage and the banks will assess that, a 10-20% drop now is nothing.

    You could be well and truly correct that it remains a 10-20% drop and I agree that's certainly manageable. 

    The reason I held off? 

    1) my investments paid off better than sticking it all in housing

    2) 2008 QE etc just kicked the can ahead, same old same old.  Essentially we deferred a business cycle of cleanup (aka recession) leaving us with a ton of zombie companies and poor productivity to boot

    3) as a result of 2008, we're now facing not 1, but 2 "business cycles of recession" hence all the talk of depression rather than a recession

    4) official inflation hasn't shown it, but simple fact is those under 40 and not in high paying industries (finance, tech, sales) have been sidelined from being able to own a home due to forever hpi policies

    This is why a few of us at least think we're due an all mighty correction of sorts.

  7. 1 hour ago, Si1 said:

    Help to buy equity loans for first time buyers in the 2nd hand housing market.

    Just my guess.

    Possible, though do wonder given the £300bn+ blown for COVID if they'd do it?  Been very spendy spendy lately, and much of the loans they've given will likely default. 

    Even the gov must realise by now how parasitic high cost of housing is. 

    For me, how does the UK be competitive in a post-Brexit world if we're still clinging onto high living costs?  For a good part of the country at least (namely the south and some parts of midlands if not all), that's not going to help with shifting goods + services.

  8. 50 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    My partners cousin visits this site, 90k combined income in Birmingham, hasn't bought now for 5 years because hes fearful. He's just been evicted again by a LL ffs, after being evicted 1 year ago. Hes 30... wasting time ******ing around.

    To be fair with a little careful planning you can find gems of landlords.  I'm in a build to rent right now, landlord couldn't be more helpful tbh.  I did do some research on him though, including asking around and financial checks.

  9. 29 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    Yea without a doubt Furlough is ending, I suspect, in work support may become more generous. Such as tax relief for keeping on workers etc... I doubt they are done yet.

    I agree but it seems they're not going to come close to generous 80% limit either.  £1k bonus to return? Really?

    41 minutes ago, Si1 said:

    I suppose the question will be - what will the Tories feel they have to do to win the next General Election.

    By 2024 demographics would have shifted even more to millennial + gen x's.  If they still find themselves renting by that point ... take a guess....

  10. 1 hour ago, Speed1987 said:

    Nah I don't agree with Furlough, never have. I'm guessing the goverment will intervene again, after testing the water. If not, it's down to mortgage lenders..

    They've been signalling a lot lately that its not an option to extend furlough scheme.  

    IMHO quicker we pull that band-aid the sooner we can figure out this new economy/world.  Just can-kicking in meantime.

    Besides, intervene again and doesn't this send the signal "its ok you dont need to save / put any aside, we'll come to the rescue" ?  Terrible messaging...

    52 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

    But ... people who own their own houses are significantly more likely to vote Tory. So the idea that the Tories are going to undergo a large social housing build program is fanciful.

    They may alter help to buy in many different ways to make it more attractive or viable . But they ain't gonna build council houses.

    Hard to say either way atm; seems ideology has gone out the window as things stand.  

  11. 40 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    Nothing has really changed up until now

    Oh dear.  

    54 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    If we allow it to unwind, as you suggest, where do those, who have recently bought go? 

    Landlords would buy cheaply and families would be left with bad credit. Hardly fair on honest hardworking people, the Tories would lose alot of votes.

    Oh I dont know, to other potential owner occupiers?  You know drain the swamp of vampire BTL model?  

    Not all families have thrashed credit.  

    Tories are good till 2024 at least... Labour keep performing public hari-kari (fun to watch, though) .... seems like they'll be fine!! 

  12. 2 hours ago, Freki said:

    Or they lose control and pain is inflected

    More likely IMHO.  How's inflation worked for the last decade?  Japan anyone??

    2 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

    The amount of new builds, in Bham, which are on 5% deposits is astonishing.

    5% products have vanished.  Very few 10% left.  15% is the new bar.  Admittedly its much easier to get a 15% deposit for a 2 bed in Bham than it is down south!! 

    2 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

    If these individuals default (recent HTB), where are we going to put them, in stoke or grimsby? Theres no council housing stock left.

    Private landlords are the new landlord, apparently, hence "landlord benefit", landlord speed.  But you knew that already ? This might be a good reason to "let it fall" IMHO, as why keep burdening the country with ever expanding housing benefit bills at the expense of the tax payer?

    Oh yes I know your answer, so I'll save you some copy and paste "the gov wont let it happen".  

    8 hours ago, richmondtw said:

    Builders will just stop building if the market falls when the existing sites are old out.  

    What will builders do for income?  Play the stock market? 

    2 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

    Only option in my eyes is inflation or some sort of direct relief for mortgage holders. State benefits prop up mortgages to 200k, however it's a loan which is paid back, they would need sufficient equity.

    Or they could simply not intervene.  

    They had a chance to extend the furlough scheme which quite honestly would have took care of this, acting as some kind of floor for the house market in effect.  They could offer further mortgage holiday extensions too. 

    Might be time to write to your MP to get that scheme turned on again?  

  13. 10 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

    true capitalism would deliver a price point entry for just about everyone.

    Indeed, until Financialization gets its dirty claws in.  Then we're in ponzi land, but we tell the masses "your getting richer!!!11"

  14. 4 minutes ago, captainb said:

    If you think HMRC will come after the thousands doing this then im afraid you are deluded. Just look at the VAT fraud going on ebay and amazon etc, they dont have the resources. 

    Not so sure anymore.  Given the £300bn+ just blown to get through COVID, it's possible they may do some research and find its worth resourcing after all... that could apply to VAT fraud too.

  15. 2 minutes ago, joe_ said:

    Sunak is convinced of the trickle down economic theory that if you give loads of £££ to the businesses they will use it to grow their business and help the general economy. Except businesses exist to make profit, and typically don't care about their staff and the economy, it's all about the bottom line.

    Can't argue with that at all.  The social contract is broken.  Partly why this forum exists.

  16. 4 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    My street in Birmingham, sold 2 this week, at 15%-20% above normal prices. Setting two new highs for the road. 

    oooooh 2 outliners!  That means the whole of birmingham goes up actually due to the absolute toilet rate of completions.  Well done!

    4 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    However seeing a real price crash across the country, of 50% is highly unlikely. If we saw 20%, for most, this would take us back to 2016-18.... hardly a change. Still doesn't make a 1 million pound house, reachable for the majority.

    Wonder why that is?  Let me guess "the government and the MPs all own property so they'll never let it drop" ?

    Better than a xerox.

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