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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by blackhole

  1. 1 minute ago, iamnumerate said:

    I sometimes think that hpi could happen for ever - I regard the idea with horror though as I don't hate my daughter and want her to be poor.

    Literally why I post.  I can do an "i'm alright jack", comply and buy.  But rather not, even though someone else will certainly take my spot without a blink of the eye.

  2. 18 hours ago, Council estate capitalist said:

    Take up really dropped off a cliff after they turned it in to a loan even though the interest on the DWP loan is only 1.3%
    I think the drop in take up is engineered by the DWP. You can only get it under certain cases & the people that are likely to get it have small mortgages so it wouldn't be that much money anyway.... 

    Interesting observation.

  3. 5 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

    The West Midlands economy is in free fall. The roads are empty. The buses are empty. The shops are empty. Birmingham based couriers like Sheldon Clayton still have drivers furloughed. The minute the handouts stop unemployment will go parabolic.

    Indeed hence Boris and co's desperate plea's to "go back to work if you can" in an attempt to save the high street and associated.  Comments sections full of "I'm not going back to that ****hole".

  4. 10 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    On another note, I visit a few other sources, people are stating that's theres very high demand currently, with bidding wars.

    Yes landlord speed.  In bubbles I can believe that for sure, much of society havent processed in the slightest the damage from this pandemic, its been can-kicked till october after all thanks to furlough scheme.

    However, how does that impact help to buy, more bidding wars on them too?

  5. 44 minutes ago, Si1 said:

    So this could get much worse now.

    HTB + COVID19 = ????

    For many, the next few months/years will be the very time that they have to start paying back that 20% component which they got for free for the first 5 years.

    Pretty sure this won't be welcomed by many, especially post October.  In some cases it could force sales in time, if one's incomes cannot keep up anymore.

  6. 1 minute ago, Speed1987 said:

    That's not what I see, in Birmingham alot of the big properties have couples living with their parents.

    Recent purchases also, if it reversing, that must be at a very slow pace, as it's still happening here, in brum.

    Good for you, landlord speed, keep those house prices pumping!  I know personally having seen many asian couples "flee", using work reasons to the family, but the truth is they dont want to live like that anymore.

  7. 10 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    That's rampant throughout Birmingham currently, several generations living in one house. As you say, it's the only way to support the prices.

    It's also makes more sense, particularly when there are alot of 4-6 bed properties.

    Very prevlant amongst asian families.

    The trend is in rapid reverse.  Many new generation young asians adopt western cultures heavily, including coupling up and getting their own place.

    Some of this is also due to the fact that their hometowns don't have the jobs they desire.

  8. 17 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    Anyway, I'm still of the belief, that a 2nd wave will hit later this year, more free money will likely be pumped in.

    From what I can see, they're focusing on localised lockdowns given the damage that was caused by an all country lockdown.  Those localised lockdowns have yet to cause another injection of free money.

    17 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    I simply dont agree with the capitalism, being practiced currently. I despise the free money being handed out, even if I benefit from it.

    I rather a completely freemarket, however that seems long gone.

    IMHO I think we now have the mechanisms to re-enable capitalism in the form of alternative currencies that the state doesnt control anymore, going back to hard money.  We're just awaiting a trigger such as .... the mega inflation you talk of.  This is why I'm skeptical we'll get mega inflation manufactured on demand.  Plays right into the hands of cryptos....

    Venezuela for example has growing adoption of bitcoin as a way to avoid mega-inflation.

    17 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    If you've done any research on the spanish flu, there are striking similarities. Let's see, you never know, your wish may still come true. 

    2nd wave yes, 2nd wave deaths?  Not so sure, seems the world has found a few ways to manage it with a low death rate.   Having said that its clear that certain US states who have been "mask deniers" will see higher deaths.

    But as I've always said, its not the deaths you need to worry about as they're genuinely not that big a % - its the impact on people's behaviours, their perception.

  9. 2 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    We need, some natural order or hierarchy, not everyone can own and be equal... natural selection, will always prevail.

    Even, if we give people houses, give it 5 years, half of them wouldn't own anymore. Sold it for several holidays or a new car and moved into their mothers.... They'll be knocking on the council, asking for housing.

    I'll keep saying it - The tories are the longest surviving party in the world.  They will adapt to stay in power.  Boomers etc are a shrinking voting base.  Gen Y and X are coming, angry....

    5 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    The way us capitalists see this is, figure it out for youself. 

    Your not having my wealth, I will do everything in my power, to prevent you taking it.

    You don't have any wealth it appears, just mortgages in your BTL portfolio.  Nothing to take....

    6 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    If your having a freebie, my freebie, in this ******** capitalism, should be proportionate or atleast equal. To maintain equality.

    So you dont want capitalism, but full on socialism?  Make your mind up ? 

    Not sure I can take your BTL mortgages....


  10. 1 minute ago, Speed1987 said:

    It's coming, the housing market needs some more props, without it... As you say Millennials and Gen X are screwed.

    They wont allow a big fall due to screwing recent buyers in the past 10 years. 

    The only actual way out is inflation and some props, get ready for this to get even crazier. I could see somthing similar to right to Buy, most would argue that's the current HTB equity scheme. However, it's not proportionate.


    Yes landlord troll.  Same old same old "goverment cannot let it happen".  Yawn. 

    To reply to your post, I don't think they have the financial headroom they had previously, but I guess we'll see soon.   

    If they really want to prevent chaos in the short and medium they would have simply extended the furlough scheme.  Simplest solution by far.

  11. 5 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    I actually believe nothing is going to give... seriously.

    To be fair, most landlords don't.

    5 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    That's not Conservative ideology, your wealth and quality of life is not there concern, as long as enough groups are kept happy, to ensure they are re-elected. An even then, they just blame immigration or say Labour would of ended you all by now.

    OTOH there's now a priced out generation of millennials coming up to the election box, along with any priced out gen X's.  

    Now there's one universal truth about the conservatives that few can deny - they adapt to survive and stay in power.

    If your facing the above wall of priced out millennials and gen x's, what would adapting look like?

    5 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    As much as I see the frustration, most can buy, they simply will not sacrifice, for it.

    I agree with you that virtually anyone who can buy, does buy, that's been my experience too.  Moral hazard is just the norm here.  But there's many who cannot buy, and will be at the voting box in huge numbers come 2024.  

    The tories are very very good at adapting and staying in power.... history has shown that ... longest surviving political party in the world after all ? 

    5 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    They may come up with a policy, like HTB on 2 hand homes, for FTBs.

    Possibly a more generous, version of  HTB isa..

    Let's see if it comes.... not sure UK finances are quite upto it, but nonetheless.   If I was the tories, I'd be focusing on how to keep unemployment low.  Without that, you can kiss goodbye to whatever extended HTB scheme you cook up, unless you basically say "well, even the unemployed could get this mortgage".  

  12. 6 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    I actually did just that, worked 40 hours a week and 3 hours a night, on an ecommerce business for 2 years, to generate a deposit. 

    However I know most would never do that, to much graft. Plus people want quality of life, I actually don't blame them, I'm just to narcissist, to allow a LL to benefit from my hard work.

    For the record, their parents didn't have to go to such lengths to get housing.  I don't see why we therefore expect the next generation to "suck it up".  

  13. Just now, Speed1987 said:

    I actually did just that, worked 40 hours a week and 3 hours a night, on an ecommerce business for 2 years, to generate a deposit. 

    However I know most would never do that, to much graft. Plus people want quality of life, I actually don't blame them, I'm just to narcissist, to allow a LL to benefit from my hard work.

    Yes some people actually prefer not to work 11 hours+ a day, not much a of a life.  Also many people did commute to their jobs, so in reality your looking a good 10hrs+ of their day gone to the day job.

    No you dont want to feed a LL, but your happy being a landlord ? 

  14. 8 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    The point is there earnings clearly support a purchase in Birmingham, they'll be cast to the ghetto soon, they've got about 5 more years and there priced out. Only going to get worse. The father, earning well, is considering a bed sit...

    If a 90k income couple is priced out of Birmingham in 5 years, they'll be much much bigger things to worry about than buying a house....

    (FYI for non-west-midlanders, 90k income in the midlands is a hell of a lot of dough)

  15. 3 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

    Just poor decisions and not taking advice, has lead them down this road, they'll soon be priced out of the area, unable to buy. 

    Priced out of Bham with a 90k joint income?  You're having a laugh....


    Assuming a generous 4x income, low debt and low outgoings, upto £350k reveals 6317 potential properties for min 3 bed.  6,317....

    Please explain to me how they'll soon be priced out?  Let me guess "the gov and their elite mates will need to keep HPI++++ via inflation" ?  


  16. 20 minutes ago, Timm said:


    Unless we let the whole thing fall, then the only way out of the employment crisis is to build.

    But what builder will build out the homes they have permission for if prices are down 20%?

    If they do, they go bust. 

    Why would building to a cheaper price point cause a builder to go bust?  I see the issue if you've already started, but beyond that?  From what I've seen on here recently, the SPV would go into a form of administration with a view to maximising the return despite market value changes. 

    IMHO existing stock is mis-allocated (BTL) due to perverse tax incentives / financialization.   

  17. 59 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    All good points, I'm not against renting, if people can produce wealth and it's in their interests, so be it.

    On this point; i've heard many people putting off attempting a new side business / startup idea as they're too concerned about preserving the wealth they have for a housing deposit, nevermind the rent they need to cover should they need to jump in both feet.  

    High living costs can actually kill green shoots, it appears.

  18. 55 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    However as you highlight in point 4, most of the working class and now middle class, struggle and won't make the sacrifices, needed to enter the market.

    Unless mom and dad help or they can move back in with them.

    It's a tricky one.  Depending on one's industry vertical, moving home isn't an option as the work isnt near home. 

    As for sacrifices, assuming you cannot live at home and save which is true for most, there's not a huge amount of verticals that pay well enough to rent, and save some at the same time. 

    Additional jobs arent always an option when you're already exhausted working 40hrs a week in your primary job, and in some cases would push them into higher tax bands making it far less worthwhile.

    Speed, something has to give.  This isn't sustainable.  

    Let's not forget, this is acting much like a ponzi scheme.  Most people's parents didn't have to earn such high incomes to attain a home.

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