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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by blackhole

  1. 5 minutes ago, spacedin said:

    Actually on reflection, it's probably because they want mum and dad to act as guarantor for the mortgage. 

    They existed (prior to COVID) as 100% mortgages with parents underwriting a significant deposit upfront, returnable in 3 years.  I haven't checked lately as to their availability, but I know a few who have actually used this option for what I deem as tiny starter homes.

  2. 12 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

    The US dollar isn't going anywhere, doesn't matter what gold does or other countries.

    US Military #1, you got a problem, they'll come and sort you out.

    You piss them off, they'll start economic sanctions.

    You really piss them off and they'll say that you suppress you own people, have weapons of mass destruction and invade. (Only resource rich countries though, cough cough).


    Sanctions have been abused to the point they're wearing thin.  So much so certain countries now bypass the $ with local currency trade.  Alternative systems to SWIFT are being built to avoid their sanctions suppression.  Game over there then....

    It's a new world, "men with guns" no longer applies anymore.   There's a good reason central banks in Russia and China have been loading up on gold for the last few years, significantly.  Writing is on the wall.  Game over here too...

    I'm actually involved in the blockchain space, the alternatives (both public mainnet and private solutions) are ready and waiting, some already at proof stage.

    An interesting thought however is what if the USA actively want to lose world currency status?  It has been said that the pressure of being a world currency is what holds back the USA from leaping forward (overly strong $, which then assists in globalization, ponzi's etc....).   

    It's genuinely possible therefore the dollar gets displaced, which then leads to an exports rush for the USA (as they become highly competitive compared to say China, who ofcourse is pegging their currency for gain).  It will hurt those in the classical "strong $ finance" model though.  But how else is the USA going to re-invent itself?

  3. 33 minutes ago, AAA said:

    There is no loss as the government is borrowing huge sums of money and spending it to compensate business owners, rich landlords, banks, companies etc. Riches will get even richer. Middle class will pay for this spending spree with much higher taxes.

    Eventually the middle - much who have survived on cheap credit - will start to opt out when they realise there's not even a middle class worth hanging on to.

  4. 21 minutes ago, MarkD said:

    For the last couple of days Boris has been babbling on about we ‘didn’t know what we were dealing with’, ‘we didn’t know how to deal with the pandemic’. This in spite of the UK being behind Italy and Spain and the World Health Organisation giving excellent guidance Throughout. No attempt to follow the guidance of course, and now the bluster to make out the government did its best. Apparently Boris hates being compared to Trump (understandable) but he’s looking more and more like a British version every day!

    They had at least a few months head start, assuming their intelligence sources in China weren't asleep at the wheel.  

    It's rather amazing given how much is spent on military / defense that western countries could not prepare any better than they did.  

  5. I've taken to less consumption by spending more time (and sometimes more money) on getting the initial purchase right in the first place. If done correctly the desire to change is dead years down the line.  

    35 minutes ago, Postman said:

    That chemical high you get from buying tat never lasts and you end up chasing the dragon. You may as well have a coke habit.

    Indeed, hence BoJo's "get back to work plebs" calls.  As someone posted earlier, it is nice to see the owning class sweating it for once in their lives.

  6. 2 hours ago, stop_the_craziness said:

    So it seems that if you took the money "just in case" then it's fine - unless you've already spent it on something else!!  If you just tucked it away somewhere then all you have to do is pay it back and you're good to go.  I would imagine that's going to be quite a bit "IF" for certain less scrupulous individuals.

    Hang on, weren't we told by someone on here they'll just use this bounce back loan as a deposit for the next addition to their portfolios? 

    Genuinely surprised banks are holding out; do they suspect that someone who got a bounce back loan is more at risk of simply walking away if SHTF ?

    This leaves cash buyers who take the loan out as part of their capital.  Cannot imagine this being a big % though.

    Interesting times indeed.

  7. 37 minutes ago, Unmoderated said:

    Anyway, 10% unemployment remains to be seen. We were given a reduced hours and salary reduction for three months and April increases delayed but the company has performed better than forecast and we have all of that back already. I genuinely believe we'll see something very close to a V shaped recover unless there's a major second wave. By next year I'd expect at least one vaccine to have sufficient efficacy to suppress the R number below one with normal business as usual. 


    I think you're underestimating the change this has brought to people on the whole (WFH revolution for one).

    If there was going to be a bounceback to offices (which is what is needed for a V shape recovery - so much of it is retail consumption based after all), I think it would have already happened prior to the 1st of August "get back to offices plebs" announcement.  Looks rather desperate to me.  

    The Oxford vaccine scientists admit that they cannot contain shedding and may not be able to, which means until there's a high enough percentage rollout, we're stuck with the virus for the foreseeable hence businesses prepared for the long haul WFH.   The gov have been outsourcing to the likes of Serco again to manage this crisis.  Ugh.

  8. 5 hours ago, Unmoderated said:

    Depends who those 4m unemployed are and how much they'd be earning. If we're talking Pizza Express waiting staff and John Lewis shop floor sales assistants I'm not sure of a big impact.. If we're talking senior management, accountants, lawyers and well paid sales people then expect more. 

    Even if its just low-skilled employed that'll have a material effect on the BTL lot in an instant.  The problem is those low-skilled types are big consumers, so it will have a material effect elsewhere.  Don't need as much management or sales if demand has collapsed etc.

  9. 4 minutes ago, Unmoderated said:

    I do not agree with high house prices but the alternative is to sit in rented and moan on here about the injustice of the whole thing. 13 years on from the GFC and you'd be halfway through a 25 year mortgage. 

    But again, as I keep posting, buying isnt an option for some.

    As for full-on-socialism, well I dont know about yourself, but it wouldnt seem worthwhile staying around IMHO. 

  10. 3 hours ago, spyguy said:

    I dont think the general public are visiting this or any other financial site more frequently. They are still far more likely to watch gormless property progs on telly.

    Going by people I listen to, all those phrases are  just dumbly repeated. No mater how much I try and point out the obvious to them, they dont listen.

    Indeed, mentally zombie nation.  Enables moral bankruptcy.  Prepare!

  11. 9 minutes ago, Si1 said:

    I'm particularly liking the general abuse and use of bad maths that ignores lots of important factors.

    But then, because they used a calculator and decimal points and stuff, they think they're almost literally Warren Buffet.

    Lots of statements, nothing backing it.

    What trolls fail to understand is if the general public is starting to visit this site more and more, your typical "its cheaper to buy than rent" or "gov will always save you" will seem like white noise.

  12. 1 hour ago, Mat1111 said:

    It'll be pennies in comparison to where you started and a fraction of whatever rents are by then. From what I can see it's way cheaper to buy than rent right now regardless of a correction.

    I think sometimes this forum participants is in a duality of worlds. 

    The haves and have nots. 

    The haves are typically earning well past national or area average salaries (certain sectors such as finance, tech, sales, medical this is possible), managed to save some aside, may have some investments and so forth.  For them, obtaining a house, albeit a lot poorer value than say their parents got for the same labour / earnings, is certainly possible.

    The have nots on average national / area salaries ... well, they'll be a statistic on the unemployment stats soon enough.   Even trying to get a 2 bed flat is a stretch.  

    So yes, tell yourself "its affordable".  It probably is.  For you.

  13. 1 minute ago, 24gray24 said:

    It's people losing their jobs that will cut economic activity in the uk. And people frightened of losing their job next, so paying down debt. 

    Indeed, that or say hello to the NINJA (no income no job no assets) loans again.  Would you want to invest / do business in a country that has resorted to NINJA loans?  

  14. 2 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

    Can the mods, owners let us know why we were deprived the oxygen of HPC truth for 24 hours? Was it an EA/VI sponsored cyber attack, was it an attempt to fix the slow loading of the past few weeks, or did they just run out of cash for a bit.

    Easier ad cheaper than you think to book in an attack (be it DDOS etc).  Hence the site's address went null (a blunt way of sending all traffic -> /dev/null).

    Once again, its another positive signal that maybe things are turning this time.  Did we see much of this in the previous years?  

  15. 3 hours ago, Postman said:

    According to mumsnet we need to take advantage of the capital gains tax cut and move right now or miss the boat forever. Never mind the greatest recession/depression of our lifetimes, the looming unemployment numbers etc etc. The only way is up. 

    It's all noise till furlough scheme ends.

    That hive-mind is actually showing signs of breaking on housing to be fair to them.  Took a while....

  16. 37 minutes ago, Simhadri said:

    Applies to stock market investments. You buy and sit with your fat @ss and then say its your wealth although you didn't work to make that money. Whereas in BTL, people invest and have to put up with rogue tenants sometimes. Stock market investments can also be said mainly benefitted with timing and luck but not hard work.

    One is a capital market which helps power growth and sometimes innovation - this is optional.  And CGT does apply to share sales, so "unearned" income is being treated fairly.

    The other (housing) is a basic human requirement that financialisation has seized its grubby little hands on.   CGT here to date for "unearned" income?  ZILCH.  No wonder the average person piles in. 

    Hence the review Sunak ordered, as the gov's spending is finally catching up with them and they're forced into a corner (need the extra revenue). 

    If anything it shows that Sunak understands where the country's wealth lies - mainly in property.... easy target in that case....

    Looks like that £300bn+ cannot be wished away by inflation after all?

  17. 1 hour ago, Simhadri said:

    +1 It's about hatred that somebody else managed to invest, took risk and able to generate income while they themselves couldn't do that or bothered to do that. It's ugly trait hating somebody because they were able to make a profit on their investment while giving money to those who never bothered to work and pay tax.




    In public choice theory, as well as in economics, rent-seeking means seeking to increase one's share of existing wealth without creating new wealth. Rent-seeking results in reduced economic efficiency through misallocation of resources, reduced wealth-creation, lost government revenue, heightened income inequality,[1] and potential national decline.

    Nice try.  Keep it up.

  18. 2 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

    If interests rates were higher, prices would be lower and peoples' saved income/deposits would go much further. And as the mortgage was repaid (novel concept), the proportion of interest would decrease rapidly.

    Today, most repayment mortgages are huge and the main component is the repayment, add to this flat wages and burden is the same 10 and 20 years after the mortgage was taken out which grinds on the economy. The cause of flat wages is high commercial rents which is similarly related.


    Nice to see someone gets it.

    WFH is the death nail for commercial rents.  I've now heard multiple times of businesses giving up their commercial lease due to COVID.  One example where before they gave up their lease, they made some staff redundant.  Once lease released, staff were re-employed.

    Isn't that magic, money going towards real productive staff instead ?

  19. 44 minutes ago, Jim Bexley said:

    New scheme - Help to Not Be Reposessed (HTNBR).

    Banks banned from repossessing houses with the arrears becoming a government backed loan, interest free for five years.

    As much as I’m joking I could see someone pitching this in Westminster.

    Same.  Only issue is that £300bn+ just clocked up.  But what's another £100bn?

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