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blackhole

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Posts posted by blackhole

  1. On 24/08/2020 at 09:18, captainb said:

    Agreed, i dont think it will be pretty hence my 10% fall prediction based on unemployment. End of july back at 2016 for non food is not biblical end of times as often suggested here ala gold crew. 

    Particularly if August shows further improvement 

    There's already signs of the V-bounce dieing in the USA straight after July.  I'll try find the charts in a bit - this is country wide aggregates in consumption, sales etc. 

    Was shocked how quickly it dipped tbh, especially since the CARES act hadn't tailed off till at least August (and ofcourse another small extension has gone in).

    IMHO numbers are a bit synthetic whilst furlough scheme is active.

    24 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

    From personal experience a lot of people are back I don't know how many of course but in one of my clients Furlough claim 65 in April,  17 now and some of those are flexibly working as allowed

    A few other business owners I know have already bitten the bullet and made redundant quite a few positions, and this is in high demand tech (niche).  Client demand is down in this case.  Didn't think i'd see it come so quickly tbh.  Not huge numbers though.

  2. 32 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

    Won't shifting money out of banks (and into cryptos or gold etc)  just accelerate a bank collapse? 

    (From what I've read banks seem very confident they will survive this one, and CLOs in the Atlantic article are just a tiny percentage compared to the cdo 's in 2008. )

    Yes, but there are a few issues :

    1) most people have no "cash" to move

    2) most also dont have any faith in crypto's or pet rocks.

    Hence a slow boiling frog.

  3. 1 minute ago, Warlord said:

    I told you he is sneaky. Hei is trying to sow seeds of doubt even if you think it's constructive (it's not) 

     

    Certainly has a constant "forever HPI" tone about em, sure.  But what home owner doesnt?! 😂  Virtually every owner around here is pretty much saying the same thing.  Nothing new there...

  4. I used to think the UK et el, would simply head Japanese.  Now having spent considerable time and effort in the blockchain space, I'm no longer concerned about that.  What I think will happen is the masses will eventually have their "eureka" moment and slowly start shifting to crypto's of sorts.  Especially the younger, shafted types.

  5. 3 hours ago, Warlord said:

    In case you haven't worked it out @captainbi is a troll.  quite a sneaky one. do not engage, He is probably sitting on a BTL empire like the other guy trying to convince himself (and others) that the crash aint going to happen...

     

    @spyguy  @blackhole

    I don't see @captainb as a troll.  He actually replies constructively.  He did have a point originally (i.e. BBL being abused), but time will tell just how serious this is.

  6. 12 minutes ago, captainb said:

    Thats fine. Different view, but people on here constantly suggest that the banks carried out checks (they were specifically told not to), there are personal guarentees (specifically not). Total is over 30billion now so not small fry

    As for hmrc chasing.. We can agree to disagree. Have a look at online vat fraud and the action they have taken (or not) over something that is entirely digital. 

    http://www.vatfraud.org/

    You're right VAT fraud on ebay and Amazon is rife (hell, you can see it as you put items through both platforms).  

    UK public debt went from £1.5tn to £2bn+ in a matter of months.   

    RE: dodgy loans for contractors scheme, that is a good example - well over a decade+ and they did go after it ... in the end.

    My guess is by this time next year they'll be a considerable expansion on HMRC's capabilities and capacity to tackle much of this.  It appears there's enough of a carrot for them is my point really.  

  7. 29 minutes ago, spyguy said:

    Yes.

    They really dont need to do much.

    They send out a letter saying You have committed a fraudulent act, please repay the loan plus penalty by xx date.

    They then instruct the courts to repo anything of value.

    Its then down the borrower to show there was no fraud.

    As poster said, you've not been in HMRC bad books.

     

     

    They've done similar with contractors on a very questionable loan scheme.  Not backing down either.

  8. 10 minutes ago, captainb said:

    This again is just nonsense. 

    They have no evidence that the borrower has or has not spent the cash. They have have no evidence that they are even in the country. The banks have done no checks on turnover. 

    All of above requires work through an underfunded and staffed team. And for 1 million loans? As if? 

    Additionally there is no personal guarentee on the borrower so it is only corporate assets they could go after. If the cash has been invested in fixed assets that are hard to realise good luck.. If the legal entity has been liquidated.. Good luck. 

    How many sellers on amazon who charge vat but never hand it over get caught? This notion that hmrc are tech savy and sort this things out is nonsense. 

    And yes i have been investigated by hmrc. 

    How is it non-sense?  HMRC will soon have a remit to bring in a lot more tax income.   Sure it'll require some effort, but it could be digitised in time along with additional staff.

    UK public debt now at £2 trillion and counting.   Something will give.

    As for mortgage companies accepting BBL loans as deposit - very small percentage in reality surely.  

    I think your amplifying the matter a bit much - you do seem to repeat this a lot IMHO.

  9. 4 hours ago, captainb said:

    Agreed; although the link you posted showed mortgage approvals in june were significantly ahead of expectations. 

    Estate agents could do viewings late may.. So getting a mortgage by end of june after doing all the viewings, picking, bidding etc is certainly possible but not everyone will get it done that quickly - nor start viewings on the first day they could.

    Will be intetesting to see the july and aug figures when available.

    What is clear though is the banks are not just refusing to lend as infered. 

    Well ofcourse there's going to be a bounce back of approvals; the key is will it ever get to post-2008 levels?  

    As posted elsewhere i'm now seeing a divergence of opinions between those who deal with commercials (e.g. actual business owners typically) vs those who I know in PAYE / "perm" jobs.  One party is starting to openly talk about the s**t-storm on the way unprompted, the other is going on holiday at any given chance as if nothing is going to change.

    As a result of this divergence I don't actually read much into the latest sales figures or even recent bounce back; seems many are still in the denial phase of what is to come.

    As of July 31st 9m+ people were still on the furlough scheme.  

    It's all about post October AFAIC.

    (FYI as a reminder I no longer have any skin in the game - if the UK decides to ramp it up all the way to the moon, I officially have an excuse to leave... and i've already started prepping corp structure outside of the UK).

  10. 2 hours ago, captainb said:

    If you go on Uswitch, select first time buyer looking to borrow 95% you get 32 available products. You might have to edit the filters 

    For 90% first time buyer you have 226 products. 

    People often post on here "banks are not lending" or "buy to let is dead". Seldom is it based in reality. 

     

    https://www.uswitch.com/mortgages/95-ltv/?utf8=✓&sort_by=&category=first-time-buyer&property_value=168421.05&loan_amount=160000&ltv_val=95&mortgage_period=25&mortgage_type=any&initial_period=-1&repayment_method=capital_repayment&sort_by=monthly&cb=1

    https://www.uswitch.com/mortgages/90-ltv/

     

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals oh but it is tightening up... doesnt really matter how many products there are if they cannot get the approvals up.  

    Also as noted those getting approvals arent necessarily getting big mortgages either.

    On a side note; the rich self-employed types I talk to are foreseeing a big storm ahead whilst the permanent types seem to be in denial.

     

  11. 1 hour ago, byron78 said:

    We're in the end game now.

    Enough idiots convinced a national economy works like a credit card. Enough dopes convinced the best way out of a crisis caused by laissez-faire capitalism is for the state to step back even further.

    I think once universal healthcare is removed they can start stripping away the middle classes properly. Then hopefully the next pandemic will take out a few million proles.

    Absolutely, stealth stripping of NHS next. 

    Much of what is going on today correlates with the fourth turning.  Including the excessive usage of credit to overcome (broadly) stagnating incomes, can-kicking policies and selling crown jewels to their mates.

    3 hours ago, GregBowman said:

    Very good summing up - everyone would of made mistakes but their 80 seat majority has bred an arrogance that has manifested itself in poor and arrogant decision making too many times 

    As EuroIntelligence stated recently, Boris & co has (or had?) a lot of political capital to burn through.  What a waste.

  12. 3 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

    Wasn't aware there was changes to CGT, just a review? I doubt much will change.

    There's been lots of "prepper" articles, suggesting CGT would be needed to balance the books post-COVID.  Many showed up on the same day from different establishments, looking rather organised.  

    As you've said time and time again IIRC all people have wealth wise is housing.  Seems like a good one to tap.

    4 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

    Either way, I highly doubt they'll just let this play out, if they fiddle the courts, this will cause a huge backlog and LLs, will just become of scrupulous. That also wont save the housing market, they've got 10-20% to play with, any lower and it will tank.

    Lets see.  As you say can't just let them end up on the street either, its politically unacceptable.  There's sod all social housing left.  Could stuff them into unused hotel rooms, but its not a practical solution for families.  

    I still think the simplest solution is to extend furlough scheme, which could then sort out the rent issue mostly... why haven't they?  Maybe they realise we actually need to take our medicine and enable the necessary structural change needed to come out of this.

     

  13. 13 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    They are bound to introduce somthing soon, otherwise the governments heads will be on pitch forks, particularly if this follows the spanish flu.

    I agree.  I suspect they'll fiddle at the court level to de-prioritise evictions heavily to the point barely any get processed in a timely manor.  Could this lead to repo's -> more owner occupiers?  Guess we'll see.  

    13 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    They've said it's not going away, they opted to crush the virus to low numbers, rather than allow a Sweden approach which was much more sensible.

    We're not Sweden when it comes to health of the nation, plus too individualistic.  I still see people miswearing or taking off their "face coverings" once in a store (!!).  Almost certainly it's the obese ironically.

    13 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

    Mortgage holidays for possibly 1 year or a scheme to help mortgage holders.

     

    Yes to extensions, but as Nationwide have clearly shown they'll apply all sorts of filtering criteria.  The gov don't need to fund that do they? 

    Not sure about help to mortgage holders, given CGT changes coming in later this year on residential, along with the outstanding debt due to this pandemic.

    As said a few times, if they were serious about kicking the can over all else they would have extended the furlough scheme.

  14. 10 minutes ago, spyguy said:

    They DM property owe will also be very surprised as they see renters hand i n their notice, leaving the LL with a void to fill.

    A major problem of having the young renting is that if hey lose their jobs then its 1 month and they are off.

    A large percentage of housing London/Se is 1 month away from a disaster.

    There's no struggling through or cutting back to pay the LL mortgage.

    Lose your job? Poof! Off.

     

    It is unbelievable how many time i've had to point this 2nd order effect out to those who claim "middle class etc will be fine if the poor lot lose their jobs".

    No wonder this country is drowning in debt.  1+1 = 1000000000000

  15. 3 hours ago, satsuma said:

    I think you need to find a long term solution, that’s probably buying a place and at the moment you would save the duty but lose out as most sellers are taking the p with prices.  Let’s face it you probably need to stall the landlord as long as you can. 

    I would advise the OP to see what the reality of this case even going to court in the next 6 months is.    

    I'd imagine courts have quite a backlog of which evictions may not be the highest priority in the grand scheme of things.

  16. 1 minute ago, mattyboy1973 said:

    Maybe - I can only talk about the industry I know. I'm sure there are other sectors in London that fall into a similar category; law, finance (non IT), media etc. What are some examples of lower paid industries with WFH potential that might be affected?

    Well think about day to day activities, back office in most companies, the dull stuff that keeps businesses afloat.  A lot of that is primed for digitisation / AI.

    Take something as mundane as estate agents and the renting market - see https://www.ledgerinsights.com/japanese-consortium-blockchain-platform-real-estate-rental-nexchain/ 

    Now imagine if this actually makes traction, how many day to day jobs could be reduced significantly?  

  17. 2 minutes ago, mattyboy1973 said:

    I work in IT, as an example, and London jobs do tend to pay significantly more, on average, than elsewhere in the country, but I'd put a lot of this down to the types of company that happen to be based in London, in particular finance. I have no doubt that there are plenty of potential candidates working within commuting distance of the City/Canary Wharf who are earning less elsewhere, simply because they are not good enough to command the top jobs, so I can still see decent WFH salaries for many, as these companies will still have to compete with other for the best staff.

     

    With all due respect this is what I hear from everyone working inside IT.  We've had it good for ... decades .... and I'd argue if in the right niche that will continue.  I'd almost argue we live in a bubble.

    Outside that bubble, the grander scheme of things is what i'm really referring to.

  18. 10 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

    I think people over estimate how common this will be. Putting London to one side for the moment, a lot of professional services roles in provincial cities are already experiencing skills shortages as EU and other international staff quit London, US/Australians don't bother anymore due to comparative poverty pay and London starts to dip into the local talent pool. 

    From my perspective, my role is extremely UK specific (and not really vulnerable to brexit or covid but won't be too specific as don't want to doxx), we've outsourced and commodified as much as we can safely do already and we still don't have enough staff. Increased regulatory requirements pretty much cancel out any automation or outsourcing gains we get. I work for one massive brand name firm but it's interchangeable with at least another 5 or 6. 

    I don't see how pay can go down right now. The best they can do at the moment is freeze and maybe use permanent WFH as a sweetener, otherwise contracting or jumping ship beckons for a lot of staff. Despite the hype, there's plenty of jobs in a similar state at the moment. 

    Regarding London based firms, how representative of the wider world is Facebook as an employer? If your wage went from "enormous but doesn't count for shit in London" to "20% less which gets you a palace in Wales" would you care? 

    I'm contemplating an "HQ" job in London when the dust settles. I doubt I'll get the full London weighting but if they'll meet me half way and pay my fortnightly train fare I won't care. 

    Well yes you're right there are certain high value niches that have shortages to this day, and hence the contracting route is available to them.  

    But for most people this isnt really an option, they don't have that bartering power.  Nor do they often believe they as employees have much in the way of rights or collective power to be honest.  

    Pay has been going down if not at great scale, its even been posted on this forum that those in financial services are taking a 10% hair cut already.  I've also seen contractors make the dash to perm roles in a bid for safety (which is certainly another form of paycut...!)

    Bonuses have dramatically shrunken overnight; that's certainly a pay cut.

    Even the golden sector of tech, there's a massive oversupply of testers and project managers swirling around.  

    I think - and I actually understand - those in highly niche types (myself included) arent feeling the impact.  But that wont preclude others suffering this.

    As for Facebook it does count - they're a massive employer across the globe who pay very high salaries across the board.  Tech firms often show upcoming trends.  

    But yes you highlight my point exactly, if you took 20% less of your city wage but all of a sudden can afford a home in a good community with dramatic less travel, whilst the employer also gets better VFM.... it is better for everyone in reality.

  19. 25 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

    One interesting dynamic is the move to WFH for professionals. Now it's possible to have a city wage that doesn't require you to cram into the expensive neighbourhood near the station or accept a massive commute. This could be a game changer for the housing market as it opens up areas to provincial commuters like me that we wouldn't have looked at before but also potentially relieves pressure in hot spots. I'm already trying to persuade the wife we should sell up and look further north where our money will stretch a lot further when my required office time is once a week if that. 

    Give it time, we're already seeing the more switched on employers knocking wages down due to dispersion effects.  

    Why pay city rates if you don't have city living costs?

    Facebook for example have announced next year to revise one's income based on their location (remote location) as opposed to their HQ.  Others will follow suit as a way to control costs.

    Having said that, I actually think everyone will be better off in this equation, even with salary cuts.

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