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Everything posted by blackhole

  1. There's already signs of the V-bounce dieing in the USA straight after July. I'll try find the charts in a bit - this is country wide aggregates in consumption, sales etc. Was shocked how quickly it dipped tbh, especially since the CARES act hadn't tailed off till at least August (and ofcourse another small extension has gone in). IMHO numbers are a bit synthetic whilst furlough scheme is active. A few other business owners I know have already bitten the bullet and made redundant quite a few positions, and this is in high demand tech (niche). Client demand is down in this case. Didn't think i'd see it come so quickly tbh. Not huge numbers though.
  2. Yes, but there are a few issues : 1) most people have no "cash" to move 2) most also dont have any faith in crypto's or pet rocks. Hence a slow boiling frog.
  3. I wonder this about virtually every home owner on here 😉
  4. Certainly has a constant "forever HPI" tone about em, sure. But what home owner doesnt?! 😂 Virtually every owner around here is pretty much saying the same thing. Nothing new there...
  5. I used to think the UK et el, would simply head Japanese. Now having spent considerable time and effort in the blockchain space, I'm no longer concerned about that. What I think will happen is the masses will eventually have their "eureka" moment and slowly start shifting to crypto's of sorts. Especially the younger, shafted types.
  6. I don't see @captainb as a troll. He actually replies constructively. He did have a point originally (i.e. BBL being abused), but time will tell just how serious this is.
  7. You're right VAT fraud on ebay and Amazon is rife (hell, you can see it as you put items through both platforms). UK public debt went from £1.5tn to £2bn+ in a matter of months. RE: dodgy loans for contractors scheme, that is a good example - well over a decade+ and they did go after it ... in the end. My guess is by this time next year they'll be a considerable expansion on HMRC's capabilities and capacity to tackle much of this. It appears there's enough of a carrot for them is my point really.
  8. They've done similar with contractors on a very questionable loan scheme. Not backing down either.
  9. How is it non-sense? HMRC will soon have a remit to bring in a lot more tax income. Sure it'll require some effort, but it could be digitised in time along with additional staff. UK public debt now at £2 trillion and counting. Something will give. As for mortgage companies accepting BBL loans as deposit - very small percentage in reality surely. I think your amplifying the matter a bit much - you do seem to repeat this a lot IMHO.
  10. Ha, my wife spotted the very same thing (top of the line stuff all of a sudden appearing on the market for the first time). Tick tock. As just posted the smart money is prepping / heading for the doors.
  11. Well ofcourse there's going to be a bounce back of approvals; the key is will it ever get to post-2008 levels? As posted elsewhere i'm now seeing a divergence of opinions between those who deal with commercials (e.g. actual business owners typically) vs those who I know in PAYE / "perm" jobs. One party is starting to openly talk about the s**t-storm on the way unprompted, the other is going on holiday at any given chance as if nothing is going to change. As a result of this divergence I don't actually read much into the latest sales figures or even recent bounce back; seems many are still in the denial phase of what is to come. As of July 31st 9m+ people were still on the furlough scheme. It's all about post October AFAIC. (FYI as a reminder I no longer have any skin in the game - if the UK decides to ramp it up all the way to the moon, I officially have an excuse to leave... and i've already started prepping corp structure outside of the UK).
  12. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/mortgage-approvals oh but it is tightening up... doesnt really matter how many products there are if they cannot get the approvals up. Also as noted those getting approvals arent necessarily getting big mortgages either. On a side note; the rich self-employed types I talk to are foreseeing a big storm ahead whilst the permanent types seem to be in denial.
  13. Absolutely, stealth stripping of NHS next. Much of what is going on today correlates with the fourth turning. Including the excessive usage of credit to overcome (broadly) stagnating incomes, can-kicking policies and selling crown jewels to their mates. As EuroIntelligence stated recently, Boris & co has (or had?) a lot of political capital to burn through. What a waste.
  14. There's been lots of "prepper" articles, suggesting CGT would be needed to balance the books post-COVID. Many showed up on the same day from different establishments, looking rather organised. As you've said time and time again IIRC all people have wealth wise is housing. Seems like a good one to tap. Lets see. As you say can't just let them end up on the street either, its politically unacceptable. There's sod all social housing left. Could stuff them into unused hotel rooms, but its not a practical solution for families. I still think the simplest solution is to extend furlough scheme, which could then sort out the rent issue mostly... why haven't they? Maybe they realise we actually need to take our medicine and enable the necessary structural change needed to come out of this.
  15. I agree. I suspect they'll fiddle at the court level to de-prioritise evictions heavily to the point barely any get processed in a timely manor. Could this lead to repo's -> more owner occupiers? Guess we'll see. We're not Sweden when it comes to health of the nation, plus too individualistic. I still see people miswearing or taking off their "face coverings" once in a store (!!). Almost certainly it's the obese ironically. Yes to extensions, but as Nationwide have clearly shown they'll apply all sorts of filtering criteria. The gov don't need to fund that do they? Not sure about help to mortgage holders, given CGT changes coming in later this year on residential, along with the outstanding debt due to this pandemic. As said a few times, if they were serious about kicking the can over all else they would have extended the furlough scheme.
  16. It is unbelievable how many time i've had to point this 2nd order effect out to those who claim "middle class etc will be fine if the poor lot lose their jobs". No wonder this country is drowning in debt. 1+1 = 1000000000000
  17. There are solutions to that too, but much depends on the individual and what they're willing to do.
  18. I would advise the OP to see what the reality of this case even going to court in the next 6 months is. I'd imagine courts have quite a backlog of which evictions may not be the highest priority in the grand scheme of things.
  19. Even some of the extreme left are becoming aware of the Guardian's less than stellar attitude. Much of it due how they dealt with Assange.
  20. Well think about day to day activities, back office in most companies, the dull stuff that keeps businesses afloat. A lot of that is primed for digitisation / AI. Take something as mundane as estate agents and the renting market - see https://www.ledgerinsights.com/japanese-consortium-blockchain-platform-real-estate-rental-nexchain/ Now imagine if this actually makes traction, how many day to day jobs could be reduced significantly?
  21. With all due respect this is what I hear from everyone working inside IT. We've had it good for ... decades .... and I'd argue if in the right niche that will continue. I'd almost argue we live in a bubble. Outside that bubble, the grander scheme of things is what i'm really referring to.
  22. Well yes you're right there are certain high value niches that have shortages to this day, and hence the contracting route is available to them. But for most people this isnt really an option, they don't have that bartering power. Nor do they often believe they as employees have much in the way of rights or collective power to be honest. Pay has been going down if not at great scale, its even been posted on this forum that those in financial services are taking a 10% hair cut already. I've also seen contractors make the dash to perm roles in a bid for safety (which is certainly another form of paycut...!) Bonuses have dramatically shrunken overnight; that's certainly a pay cut. Even the golden sector of tech, there's a massive oversupply of testers and project managers swirling around. I think - and I actually understand - those in highly niche types (myself included) arent feeling the impact. But that wont preclude others suffering this. As for Facebook it does count - they're a massive employer across the globe who pay very high salaries across the board. Tech firms often show upcoming trends. But yes you highlight my point exactly, if you took 20% less of your city wage but all of a sudden can afford a home in a good community with dramatic less travel, whilst the employer also gets better VFM.... it is better for everyone in reality.
  23. Give it time, we're already seeing the more switched on employers knocking wages down due to dispersion effects. Why pay city rates if you don't have city living costs? Facebook for example have announced next year to revise one's income based on their location (remote location) as opposed to their HQ. Others will follow suit as a way to control costs. Having said that, I actually think everyone will be better off in this equation, even with salary cuts.
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