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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by blackhole

  1. 24 minutes ago, oracle said:

    corporates are now quite a bit happier with work from home/worksmart/flexi working,which is fine for those who can, but the spin offs like costa/starbucks/bars,restaurants,sandwich shops which rely on the work-at-office customer base are going to the wall in the mean time.

    To be fair Costa/Starbucks outside of the cities is still doing well.  The customers have simply moved out a bit.  

    26 minutes ago, oracle said:

    my local TOC(thameslink) is running a 4 train per hour service during weekdays but it's nearly all empty, at the very least I would expect this to go down to 3 trains per hour,which would be a 1/4 reduction in service but would not be noticed( a bit of a change from a year ago when it was common for cancellations due to lack of crew)

    It's a good thing in reality, the trains had serious overcapacity issues at peak prior.  Ideal breading ground for any virus.  No shocker that there's few on there now.

  2. 59 minutes ago, simon2 said:

    If you earned six figures with no kids, how can being out of work for six months make you run out of money?

    A friend mentioned via a financial advisor a real case observation which happens often. 

    One of his clients got a pay rise, and subsequently leased out a new car.  The new car lease monthly's were greater than their post-tax pay rise.  Client went back to finance advisor asking "why do I have less remaining than before my pay rise?"

    Financial illiterates everywhere you look.

  3. 1 hour ago, Bear Goggles said:

    Boomer landlords now:

    ‚ÄúOMG,¬†pleez get back to the office and start spending money on¬†avocado toast and lattes again,¬†or the economy is going to collapse and property¬†values¬†will fall‚ÄĚ

    It’s kind of crazy to think that it was just avocado toast and lattes holding the entire economy together all this time!

    The "haves" wealth is trapped in the old pre-covid way of the world.  Very few will make it out and preserve much of it in time IMHO. 

    Especially as they keep artificially ramping up markets (both stocks, housing etc) - why would you give up the magic gains?  

  4. 8 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

    Lets see how people feel in January and February about home working - 11 months in and after four months of cold weather and long dark evenings stuck at home all day and all evening! Some will love it - others not so much - and often linked of course to their housing situation!

    I think many will adapt ultimately.  I've been WFH extensively for years myself, and during the dark winters it was brilliant (avoided unreliable trains, less colds, shifted my day around so I did things during the daylight hours to keep sane).  Try doing that with a commute.

  5. 9 hours ago, captainb said:

    Point overall being looking at the london market particularly central london and just comparing to rental yield and salary multiples is far too simplistic. 

    Just because something has broken fundementals, doesnt mean its simplistic.  Many are saying this about the stock market (which lets face it, behaves in much the same way atm). 

    It could simply mean the damn thing is rigged....


  6. 42 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

    Well that`s it isn`t it, the revenue loss from all those snacks, coffees, lunch time drinks and meals, after work drinks/meals/nightclubs, hotels for when it isn`t worth going home after a late session at the office/pub, rail season tickets etc. are all hitting the economy and more importantly for the government - government revenue, very interesting times indeed.

    I call them "anti-depressants" for working in London¬†ūü§£¬†

    What I find most interesting is the country that stayed open during all of this - Sweden - have openly told their population to continue working from home till at least the end of the year.  Wonder why that is.

  7. 37 minutes ago, captainb said:

    You can't have it both ways. 

    On one side saying central london prices must go down to rental and wage fundamentals and then ignore the reason why they don't track them historically slash why they got so expensive. 

    Has marginal impact on zone 2/3 outwards of course. 

    Erm, central london rents are heading down right now due to the exodus.  Already had a material impact.

    My point is, is there really a relationship between the ultra high net worth and the rest of civ?  Hence strawman.

    Is there evidence showing a strong link between ultra-high-net type of purchasing and the rest?  Not sure there is.

  8. 3 minutes ago, captainb said:

    That's effectively driven up prices with rich russians, arabs, Malaysians etc before, so when people say look! The rental yield is only 2%! Bubble! You are missing the point of that market. The people buying couldn't care less about the rental market and are not buying on their 4.5x london wage mortgage... 

    Straw man surely?  I mean, how dies this really impact the rest?

  9. 17 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

    Sure, but not if there are more lock downs, and if the fear diminishes people will drift back to doing what they used to do, most workers are not key enough to be kept at home on full salary IMO, not indefinitely, something has to give.

    Oh I agree, also I wasn't eating out nearly as much as when I was in the city.  

  10. 2 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

    Of course, but it is chicken and egg because as the commuter economy/commercial and retail investments get hit the wider knock on effects may mean those people no longer have a job to go to or sit in their PJ`s at a screen for?

    TBH that commuter spend often moves to their local area instead.  For example I'm guilty of popping to my local high street and getting a nice lunch a few times a week.  Sometimes just for the change in scene!

  11. 7 minutes ago, captainb said:

    I just personally think the i can work from home 5 days a week all year round crew in a lot of circumstances should be careful what they wish for. Suggests the role is suitable for offshore at the very least. 

    They tried that (outsourcing).  For the highly skilled / core profit making, it often comes back. 

    For the more generic roles.... digitisation will be their enemy, not offshoring.  Which lets face it, with or without WFH is coming anyway.

  12. 5 minutes ago, Si1 said:

    They don't sell new cars for the margin, they sell them to satisfy the franchise conditions, that is the manufacturer require a given number of cars sold per year in order to reap the future profits off parts provision. So no, new car margins won't be great I would imagine.

    Parts + finance from flipping the car multiple times via 2nd hand market (which as Greg points out, is where the margin is).  

    Back in 2019 it got so bad, that I ended up buying new with all the extended warranties and services for not much more than what I could find in the nearly used market.  I wouldn't be surprised if its similar now.

  13. 3 minutes ago, Houdini said:

    No institution would want a set of badly built, poorly maintained set of 2nd hand houses scattered around housing estates. What they want is a newly built set of executive flats that they fully own and control.

    Indeed, on-going TCO nightmare otherwise.  I'm currently in a professionally managed "build to rent" office conversion and quite frankly its dreamy in comparison to other accidental landlords I've had.

  14. 49 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

    I wonder how long it would actually take for the local court to open up, work through its already huge backlog and then process all of Fergus's cases.

    I think he may have inadvertently offered his tenants a 2-3yr rent free period.  

    My thoughts exactly.  

    On a serious note, would there be any institutional investors willing to take this lot all off his hands?  As others mentioned he's struggled to do it during "the good times".

  15. 3 hours ago, GregBowman said:

    Finishing my car deal early to save a few bob and fancy a change and rang the dealer and said I want out - gave me £2k over we buy any car said he needs the stock

    Yep many moving to cars where possible for transport, along with ofcourse a shutdown of we buy etc.  I remember receiving posts from BMW fans crying (during early pandemic times) that they were underwater on their car loans.  All good now.

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