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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by blackhole

  1. 17 minutes ago, Deckard said:

    Because you disputed a new poster's statement lamenting the state of things - for no apparent reason other than devolving into self-congratulatory, condescending babble when challenged.

    Why did you feel compelled to do that?

    Well said, given up on this forum as virtually the same patterns emerge from the same set of posters.  How dull.  

    I'm always confused if these owner occupiers are so content & happy in their situation, why are they posting on HPC forum the same old **** each time?  🤔  

  2. 10 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

    It is to an extent... but certainly at another level due to situation in N Ireland due to Brexit. Brexit is the key issue in N Ireland re pricing, etc. 

    I'm not sure how much of the NI pricing is Brexit related, but you can see in Bloomberg/WolfStreet that shipping prices globally have shot up.  How do you split the two events up?

  3. 1 hour ago, gruffydd said:

    Well, this just from N Ireland: "I’m told that the cost of shipping a container from Far East into Belfast was costing $2500 in Sept/Oct; now quoting c$20000 for same container loads and supply. Dublin c$14000."

    This is a global issue, USA port prices also shot up; not brexit per say but COVID which for a while caused a dip in production, and now we're seeing production come back online and companies trying to get their products into countries hoping to take advantage of the post-vaccination retail surge, amongst other things.


    I do not think so - unemployment is mainly in the catering holiday and restaurant sector.  I doubt that many of those people were in the market to buy a house ahyway.  I kmnow of 1 person who has been made redundant hde is an engineer who had another job and started within 3 weeks.

    Believe it or not the hospitality & travel industry is quite far fetching.  Once you get out of the south east in many cases those sectors paid well enough to secure a mortgage.    


    The government was already running a defecit. Now huge sectors of the economy are being crushed. Tax recipts are going to plumet. The state now has to choice between allowing massive bankruptcies and huge spending cuts and and printing piles of cash to try to bail everyone out. To me it seems clear they are going to go down the Zimbabwe route. Cranking the handle of the printing press to 'save the world'.  People seem to think inflation is an easy way out.

    I saw this summary of the situation yesterday.


    Not just the UK, but the USA and EU are keeping their economies alive through sheer printy print / QE.  "Markets" are now addicted to constant stimulus. 

    Writing's on the wall as you say.


    Just saying it wont happen. Not until almost everything else has collapsed for the same reason.

    I think it might actually.  You might as well call the current gov "new labour with a blue label" quite frankly.  

    For some reason - maybe from not having a proper recession in 2008? - as a country we've seemingly forgotten why the bankruptcy mechanism exists in the first place.  

    Now as a society we're absolutely terrified by the concept, when its simply a natural part of the business cycle.


    The reason why they dont want to go down that route.. is who ultimately owns a lot of this stuff?... Pensions. Meant to be a solid yielding return... ahem. Well not if everything shuts its not. 

    Fully aware, but I don't care tbh and I don't see why my generation and such should bail out your generation's pension pots.  We can't even afford homes, so why the hell should we save your lot?

    Sod that.


    Its a mess. But allowing for a mass crash in commercial property sounds "fun" but unfortunalty its far reaching and really not.


    See above.  My generation won't have a pension worth its salt by the time it comes around, provided they haven't pushed retirement age into 100 years by then.  

    It's about time we faced our demons as a society.

    This all smells like extend-and-pretend to me.  Like I said earlier even those in the commercial industry acknowledge its massively overpriced.  


    Depends what we are including in retail.

    Hairdressers, pubs, etc. etc. Its all well being close to the edge, but pretty harsh to say effectively shut for 5 or 6 months and thats it guys... sorry... that it. 

    I agree that mid market fashion, casual dining etc was in trouble before this in a big way.

    At some point i.e now they actually need to reform business rates. its lost the plot with reality. 

    Shoe zone who reported the other day, now have business rates costing 70% of the rent amount. Its madness to not allocate some of that taxation to online. then add in the VAT avoidance etc.

    Maybe its a good thing they go bankrupt and start again, afresh?  

    Then as you say more sane business rates, saner commercial rents etc .... it cannot go on as is; something has to give.  Even a chartered surveyor I know fully admits CMBS is in a massive bubble.

    Throwing more loans doesn't fix that fundamental issue. We're in extend-and-pretend forever otherwise, with the taxpayer on the hook.


    It is essential that we, as a nation, get over our short term greed and make way for a more sustainable future. A future that doesn’t leave some gorging on the proceeds of property speculation, only to exclude the young from home ownership and build up a massive burden for them in the future. We can either start to face it and address it now or we can sit back and wait for the youth revolution. It will come and who can blame them?

    Jim Cramer's "Age of disorder" awaits the UK, as it does the US.  As you say, either the existing government "owns" this disorder, or finds themselves replaced by it.

    I don't think politicians in the west have the guts to do what is right anymore, so disorder + political chaos it is.


    HPC: It's going to be like Cormac McCarthy's The Road!

    Everyone else: Next six months will be tricky, then OK.

    I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

    The issue is the state really has a limited playbook when it comes to "seismic events".  Print, austerity, print, and goal seeking stats.  The playbook is looking exhausted; there's only so much debt a system can take before kapow.  Cgnao's right - prepare.


    The property owning elite will always be protected. There are years of evidence to support this which is why most people here rent (i.e. they're just a pleb, they just don't want to be).

    If you can't beat them, join them. If you can't join them, tough. This shouldn't be such a difficult concept to grasp, even for people on here.

    In a "Mad Max" scenario, short of the true landowning types having their own defence & preparations, the masses will likely be caught with their pants down and as you inferred earlier have no real skills to defend their homes on the whole.  

    There wont be much help from the state at this point, either.  And if you cant service the mortgage on that just brought property, again, struggling to see the benefit. 

    edit: Not that I disagree with what your saying - GTFO of cash, get lots of property, defend and actually prep - just for most its genuinely not an option.


    For the English,  prepping means buying more toilet paper. 

    There's enough social  cohesion in england that people think mad max prepping is unnecessary. (Unless the banks go belly up). 

    But you can't say the same about America.  Prepping looks kind of sensible: 62 million unemployed. No welfare. And half of the population underwater every month end even in the good times. 

    It looks like a tinderbox. (Huge surge in gun sales). No wonder people are fleeing the cities in droves. 

    Record gun sales & ammo, manufacturers cannot keep up this year.  Even the lefties are getting their gun licence etc.

    In the North of the UK I'd agree, still signs of community and self-sufficiency.  South.... good luck!!!


    By the way just incase, if anyone here is unfamiliar with "council housing", it's this thing we used to have where people affordably rent adequate housing off the council.

    My parents brought theirs through right-to-buy.  


    My dad went from a council estate into grammar school > free degree + grant > well paid job and he thinks this is a load of sh*t too, so does my mum. Their siblings went to tech colleges (or not at all) and got well paid careers / jobs too.

    Good to hear awareness is spreading.  Even if its on this forum.


    Yeah if HMRC pull their finger out then they really should get somewhere. I have doubts given their historical enforcement - https://www.lettingagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2020/8/tax-evasion-by-landlords-costing-over-1-7-billion-a-year--claim


    If you look at the law its actually quite strict on BTL etc.

    However you look at enforcement its piss poor as are the punishments when crimes are committed - see beds in sheds etc all over parts of west london. Do we really think any of them are declaring tax!

    Your right to be sceptical, but at the same time that £300bn+ hole needs plugging without entirely resorting to income level tax increases.

    I can already smell the "consultancies" selling them data ingestion and analytics projects to solve this 😂

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