DC10

I have been waiting for this for 5 years.

From the happy people at zero hedge: "If Raoul Pal was some doomsday spouting windbag, writing in all caps, arbitrarily pasting together disparate charts to create 200 page slideshows, it would be easy to ignore him. He isn't. The founder of Global Macro Investor "previously co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul came to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe... Raoul Pal retired from managing client money in 2004 at the age of 36 and now lives on the Valencian coast of Spain, from where he writes." It is his writing we are concerned about, and specifically his latest presentation, which is, for lack of a better word, the most disturbing and scary forecast of the future of the world we have ever seen.... And we see a lot of those" Read on here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/big-reset-2012-and-2013-will-usher-end-scariest-presentation-ever Not for the faint hearted

now down 2.4% its a sign of how bad things are that this thread is still on page 1.

Ta - not seen that thread - where is it? I need some glimmer of hope to get through this miserable Tuesday.

As per topic heading. RICS survey shows london is still bullet proof - talk about putting a bank holiday dampner on my spirit. Do I need to just bite the bullet and dive in? Or is it time for the loaded revolver and a bottle of whiskey.

thanks this is v helpful

Thanks BL. Will do the above in that order first thing monday. Thanks to others. The letter was addressed to the occupier so the bank knows i am a tenant. Useful to know that i may have 2 months.

As per title, I have just received notice of repossession from my landlord's bank. Does anyone have experience of dealing with banks/solicitors in this kind of situation? How long can I string out the process for? Is it worth coming to an arrangement with the bank? I like the flat and where I live. If it was at the right price i would even consider buying it myself. Interested to know if others have done similar.

This is a very clever move on Ken's part.

... and its closer than we think

Yes at the moment, but for how much longer? http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/nov/23/uk-household-earnings-fall Thats what they want. But if the pound devalues much more what will bondholders say? Interest rates will have to go up at some point.

+1 They would be so lucky. Few people understand that in the current recessionary environment, inflation can only let rip if it feeds through into wage packets; either a) through public sector wage rises (eg in Zimbabwe, Weimar republic) or through private sector union wage bargaining (eg. UK 1970s) I just can't see it happening now. Right now, prices are going up, but wages stay the same, people have less to spend on goods and services so they cut back which leads to businesses failing, so more discounting. Rinse and repeat. The inflation we are seeing now is self limiting. But nonetheless still very costly for the economy. It would have been better if governments had just got the delfation bit over and done with. The printing just delays the inevitable but cannot stop it. For once, I agree with the BoE that we have probably seen the top on inflation. After next year the VAT rise drops out of the calculation and inflation will fall back. For sure, fuel is still going up; but everywhere else I look I see heavy discounting in shops, people losing their jobs and sub prime credit shops springing up like mushrooms. To me that smells like the end of a crack-up boom. Id say by middle of next year inflation will be nearer 2% and falling. Sure, they can keep on printing but they simply can't print enough for it to get into the real economy. It just provides short term hits to stock markets which quickly fade away. But there is nothing else they can do.

+1 This smells of desperation. FTBs may now be able to borrow 95% ltv but they still have to service the loan. And no-one will want to borrow 5/6/7 times their income and I doubt banks will want to lend on those multiples. This will help the small proportion of FTBs with large incomes and small deposits. That can't be very many.

It's been a tough time to be Irish. The boom years are a distant memory and now there's just austerity and a long haul back to recovery for a nation crippled by the reckless lending of its banks. But, a year after the country was forced to call in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), there is a sign that the people are fighting back and targeting the hated lenders with the "nuclear option" of a mortgage strike. Ross Maguire is the co-founder of New Beginning, a new de-facto trade union for Irish mortgage holders and those in debt distress with banks, which aims to recruit 10,000 members in a movement that has strong parallels with the Occupy protests that have swept through scores of countries. "The nuclear weapon is for borrowers acting in concert and to say that unless proper and sustainable solutions are put in place which are fair and reasonable, then we should not continue to pay under these current conditions," he says. So does this mean a "mortgage strike" under the New Beginning banner similar to the "rent and rates strike" by nationalists in Northern Ireland protesting against internment without trial in 1971? .... http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/18/ireland-banks-mortgages-repossession-new-beginnings

Thanks for taking the time to do the london analysis. It confirms my suspicion that the 07 london bounce back was much sharper than the rest of the country, although that could be the effect of your smoothing. Something is holding up prices in London this time around compared to 89-94. If the City takes an early bath with the eurozone crisis there will be interesting times ahead.

I have this thread bookmarked and by some strange coincidence was reading it again only yesterday. Its HPC 101 mandatory reading. All seems to be running to the Austrian script. I need to do more reading on k waves...

Nice charts. Can you do the same 89 vs 07 comparison for London only?

I enjoyed that link, thanks

tick tock tick tock...

+1 This is why when Greece goes down it is going to hurt us all. We are going to need some serious bomb disposal experts and Merkel and Sarkozy aren't up to it. This is a political crisis as much as a financial crisis.

Not in London. Rents have gone through the roof in the last 12 months and it is now cheaper to buy. I wish it were different.

Although its about prime central london, some interesting insights. worth a listen.

Stand corrected. It is 85k deposit protection. woweeeeee. Thats would be a mega bailout. Will be interesting to see how it will work in practice. I think id rather buy a house and owe the bank 85k than they owe me the money. Dammed if you do. Damned if you don't.

Thanks VMR - and sorry for going slightly off topic but I find personal HPC survival strategies one of the most useful things on this site. As far as I can see banks are in the last chance saloon. I predict at least one UK bank will go to the wall within the next 12 months. And I mean properly go to the wall. Pour encourager les autres. The 50k retail ceiling will be enforced. If you're over that, tough. They did it in Sweden, they did in Iceland. It can happen here.

You mentioned the fear of an overnight devaluation. But i would be more concerned about taking on a load of debt on a tracker and then seeing an overnight rate rise. What's your hedge against that? Or do you not view that a serious risk?