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General Melchett

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Everything posted by General Melchett

  1. Not sure about this 'House of Dreams' idea. Looking around at the places most people have to live, surely most people choose their home because it is the least worst fit to a bunch of (intrinsic or extrinsically) worked out criteria. And a s*dding big one of those criteria must surely be the cost (now and relative to the likely cost in six months time). One sh8tty bodge-built box is much the same as the other 200 on the market in the same small town, surely? Yeah, some people get to live in cottages with roses over the door, castles, converted oasthouses or whatever their fetish may be, but I doubt if they make any impact on the big statistics: They are a drop in the 3 bed semi/2 bed terrace ocean. @House of [email protected] type comments sound like EA verbiage to me.
  2. I wonder if car credit and related activities is going to be in one of the first waves of the coming meltdown? Driving up to visit the Elders this week I noted that the big local '2nd hand car supermarket' in my county seems to have suddenly gone out of business omteime in the last couple of months. Bearing in mind that such business are likely a) highly dependant on their customers getting credit to buy from them likely highly leveraged themselves (highly dependant on available and cheap credit for their stock) and c) highly dependant on short-term turnover to stay solvent, looks to me like this sector could get flushed away quite quickly. A quick hit on the other end of the Lever and off they fly into the sunset (its not called leverage/gearing for nothing ) For the sake of balance, i have to say I talked this over with her Ladyship as we drove onwards, but she reckoned I was reading too much in to it.
  3. Indeed, I sympathise. I dont want a recession. It will be awful. I have young colleagues i like who have bought houses in the last couple of years who will be f*cked for life. But things are complex: maybe it will lead to the other young people I know who cannot buy a house being able to afford one some day? But I dont think all posters to this site are the same. There are those who want a recession, yes, but there are also those who may not want one but see it as inevitable.
  4. The House ALWAYS wins in the end. That is the way The Game is designed. You can, however as an individual with free will, limit how much of their game you play..., work out a system, watch the machines and only play them when a payout is due etc
  5. Indeed: It is a constant source of amazement to me how many of our 'leaders' havent a clue what they are doing. You would think something like a degree in economics would be a baseline job requirement for a Chancellor of the Exchequer? Certainly you or I could not expect to get a serious job without a relevant, serious qualification. FFS, he could have got one with the OU within his first two years in post (it should be a condition of employment if you dont have one on entering the job), and we might have been saved the last 9 years of idiocy.
  6. Having read this and the stuff about how people are 'spending themselves silly', post-Christmas, despite the writing on the wall, I think the slogan of the hour should be along the lines of: 'Ask not what your rulers will do to you: Ask what you can do to/for your rulers.'
  7. I would imagine that they were implying a causal link: They live abroad BECAUSE they are aware of the state of the UK.
  8. Not just the surplus wealth, i'm afraid. :angry: This forgotten gem of a movie from GC1 should appeal to a few people on this board... That is if you can find a copy. I think the VIs dont like to show stuff this subversive on the TV http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0099593/
  9. And dont forget they also carried Frankicense and Myrrh.... dont see much ramping of them on here, yet they seem to be in the same asset class.... And for some light Christmas reading may I recommend Dispatches..... Not sure if I can say who by, but its about the Vietnam war. You will find some interesting parallels in there to the absurd economic/political situation currently existing in our country
  10. I wouldnt be so paranoid about this: Any big well run business should have prepared contigency plans in advance for clearly predictable events like this: whether they act and how quick is a different matter. I'm kind of pleased that Halliwide were ready and waiting: It shows a level of competence sorely lacking in the banking sector right now.
  11. Simple: You are running yourself like a good business if you are leveraged (or your gearing) by 3.5 or less. Even when I was doing my business studies A level it was made clear that a well-run business would typically be leveraged by between 1.5 to 2.5 times, with some industries or businesses having special circumstances which might be able to sustain up to 3.5. Over 3.5x was the sign of an over-geared business which would (now or in the near future) be circling the drain. This general advice continued all the way up to and through my MBA and has served me well in running Gen Melchett Ltd (except I now have no borrowings - however, once sanity returns to the housing market, that will likely change, but I would never take out a loan of more than 3 x). As it says in the text books - the overgeared may be able to sustain that level of gearing in the good times, but are exposing themselves to excessive downside risk. Just like we see now with high mortgage multiples.
  12. I would agree with Hyacinth on one thing : It is a VERY silly offer. Under current market condition you would be VERY SILLY INDEED to go in with anything above 60% of asking, or .6 x 140 = 84K Sorry for the CAPS
  13. I've been watching the homepage 'arrows' since early summer, when only one (ours) was red and pointed down. Slowly, slowly, they have turned.... One by one. Only a couple pointing up now.... How long will they hold out? I have also noticed that the Qrly figures/arrows have slowly but surely evapourated, (likely in order to hide the full story? Surely not! Another QTR year and we will probably see a few more N/As in the anual column, too, for the same reason. And what is that sound I hear..... Sounds like someone is eating, no it can't be........ It is: It's A Hat!? Maybe they can't afford food, poor soul. Not surprised the way (food) inflation is these days..... Seriously though, this is my 3rd property crash, and I dont recall the other two coming on with quite this speed. It's going to be bad, far worse than most of us could possible imagine. I say bad, because, much though I want house prices to crash, this is going to be devestating to the whole economy.
  14. Well, at least he should be able to pick up somewhere to live quite cheap
  15. The really sad/stupid thing about idiots like these is that they just dont see that you might actually be trying to stop them commiting financial suicide. I guess if they're happy drinking the Kool-Ade, ultimately, thats their choice.
  16. Shurely not..... What would be the point of that ???
  17. Back on Dr. H's topic.... I get the feeling the UK public is like the fat bloke from "Meaning Of Life". Sat there, bloated, and being asked to have just one more "waffer thin mint". It's up to us. Accept and explode, or decide to trim down, go on a diet and bring some meaning and joy back into our gadget obsessed lives. Choose Life. LOL!!!!!!! (there you go, you get it in both TXT and image, Dubai) A wonderful, thoroughly apt image - sums up the current situation perfectly!
  18. Her Ladyship is particularly fond of shouting at the telly that the claimed £20 (or over similarly patently ridiculous and made-up sum) is not a realistic costing for hiring the gang of builders, decorators 'interior designers' etc for the month it has clearly taken to tart up the properties on these programs (the normal claim seems to be it took the hoeowners two days and they hired someone to fit carpets, bathroom, kitchen etc all for 20 quid), and neither is the quoted £50 (or similar) a realistic sum for refurbishing the house top to bottom. I may be a bit out of touch with the costs of things these days, but i think she may have a point. Nevertheless, she will soon be denied on of lifes little pleasures (shouting at the TV)
  19. Indeed, truly obscene that there are so many, and they all approached from the Smug Speculator angle (as you say, none from the @Priced Out, which hell-hole, and Rachmanesque landlord should I go with?', none from the @speculators ruined my neighbourhood' angle etc. Sometimes (once or twice a year when I was nursing a beer and jetlag) would give time to Sarah Beeny's efforts, purely for the joy of her @Oh my G*D, tell me you didnt, you plonker, even after all the free advice we gave [email protected] approach to her punters. They will not be missed. To any TV execs reading, I've got a fab idea for a Tulip-ramping series...... Yours for £150K upfront plus 1.5% of advertising revenue.. Dont fancy tulips? We could do dot-.com shares, gold, whatever takes your fancy. Give it another 20 years or so and we could ramp property again. Maybe
  20. I think the really interesting demographic question is 'Which Golgafrinchan Ark would you be assigned to?' Difficult for me: Used to be an A-Arker (I'm listed in Whos Who in Science and Technology, for instance) but to be honest now probably booked my seat on the B-Ark. Also sheeple or wolf? Wolf - stroppily holds own opinions based on research and logic (at least one employer has shown me the door for this trait). Dont give a toss what people around me think, because in >95% of cases they are just bleating with the herd. Early 40s, very solvent but not wealthy, 3 degrees, two kids, two cats, one house, one spouse, no mortgage.
  21. This seems an appropriate thread for my first post......... Lurking on this board most of this year. Predicting crash, or at least a downwave, since 2001 (so no one I know listens to me anymore). Student renting 84-91, went into 2nd degree in 88 thinking 'As I cant buy now, maybe I never will be able to afford to'..... WRONG: Bought and sold 91 and 94 in the last trough. 'Overextended' myself in 94, buying at depost of 1.5 times income + 3 x mortgage. Paid off that mortgage in 2005 (yes i live on beans and sawdust, student habits plus no desire to own a car which costs more than my pushbike....). Piles of cash, bonds and shares accumulating for the next trough. Would like crash to be quick as in 3 years time my eldest goes to secondary school and our local is one of those in special measures where every shiney new head they get in to fix it leaves with his tail and reputation in shreds. Got my (typical semi, neighbours are teachers, nurses, taxidrivers, all over 40) house 'valued' by EAs last year at 280K - so about 14 x average income, >5 x my current income. Will be sad to see all the recent young FTBs burnt in the crash, but cant say I didnt try to warn those close to me, and it will be for the greater good, as I know far youngsters who are totally priced out. Sadly, it will be the high-potential youngsters who have still been able to buy these last few years who will get burnt most - Many I know will simply up and leave the UK. Goes without saying I have only the deepest contempt for both rampers and our sorry excuse for a government
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