Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


New Members
  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by leftysmate

  1. That's an unusual amount of detail to have about the sellers? :blink:

    Did you investigate each "No chain" seller's personal details?

    The emigration percentage is huge--could that indicate that the UK population is about to drop?

    Not really that much detail IMO. Just that we are friendly people and able to strike up a rapport with people - and it's natural to ask where they are hoping to move too and generally they are happy to say. Having said that one of the divorce cases didn't actually volunteer the info when we asked - but I knew she was divorcing as she was an aquaintence of a woman I used to work with.

    On the indicative of rats leaving the sinking ship question - I think my experience might be a little misleading as we ourselves are no spring chickens and so are looking at 3rd / 4th rung type properties. So probably fair to expect for us not to see that many BTL bailing examples as I percieve those to be the 1st / 2nd rung type props.

    But I am surprised not only at the high numbers of those emmigrating but the low numbers of those just moving elswhere in the UK or even downsizing. However, I suspect if (unofficial) inflation continues as it has been over the last year then there will be a lot more downsizing going on shortly.

  2. 500,000 people die every year in the UK

    That's 42,000 per month.

    86 counties in the UK.

    Therefore 500 die a month in a typical county.

    About 100 will be single old people (wild guess)

    Therefore expect maybe 33 new properties a month on the market (per county) with no onward chain due to old people dying. (assuming 30% were owner occupiers)

    Each one will take at least 3 months to sell.

    The West Midlands covers a large densely populated area...

    Maybe this accounts for some of your no chain properties. Probably more than for the number of sellers leaving the country.

    Just some anecdotal evidence to add here. Been keeping an eye on the market around my way (NW & NWales) and every now and then do some viewings etc. Probably now looked at around 20 or so houses over the last year and a bit - and tend to try an keep to No Onward chain types as I perceive them to be more motivated to actually want to sell.

    Of these - 3 were probate, 2 were OAP's leaving to move in with children, large number - probably 10ish were emmigrating, 2 divorces, 1 had already bought another house, only 1 was an obvious flipper/btl. Remainder - either can't remember.

    Of those emmigrating - Spain was the most popular and a particular favourite of those in North Wales. Others were off to Australia or Canada, 1 to New Zealand and 1 to Patagonia.

    I agree that NO Chain stuff has and continues to be a regular feature of the property stock around here but in my experience the majority of this is due to emmigration with sadly no great sign of BTL pulling out. Perhaps that's one key reason why prop. prices around here continue to defy gravity.

  3. Time to Modernise these Ea contracts...

    HERE is what CAN be done:

    Users of their service could come up with a new clause to be inserted in the contract:

    In return for an "exclusive", EA's could agree that if they FAIL to sell the property within say 5% of the

    "Valuation" within a fixed period (three months?), then their FEE is cut in half.

    I actually tried something like this (although not quite as severe as cutting the fee in half) a few years back when trying to sell our house. I can't take the credit for the idea and forget where I saw it, but it was on some money website or other with a "selling your house / dealing with estate agents section"

    Basically, you agree the "realistic" valuation (say 295 - 305K) and agree to pay the agents standard commission (say 1%). However, you then agree a "shared risk / shared reward" type deal around this. So if the house sells for between 280 - 295K the commission reduces to 0.7% but if the house sells for between 305 - 320K then his commission increases to say 1.3%. The house would initially be marketed at 320K

    This way, as the seller I am a little more cofident that the agent will genuinely try and sell at the higher value and if successful shares the reward. Equally, if his marketing / selling skills are not as good as I'm led to believe and I am forced to consider a lower offer, then I know he will share some of the pain (and more pain than he would otherwise have done on a flat % basis).

    I put this scheme to 3 agents - 2 were regional type multi offices and 1 small local independant. The 2 multi offices understood where I was coming from but wouldn't go with it (I'm guessing they didn't have the authority or couldn't be bothered to run it by head office) - the independant had no trouble signing up to it.

    Would have worked great, except house was on the market for 3 months with a fair few viewings but didn't receive any offers. In the end we decided to stay put for another couple of years.

  4. http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/review.htm

    This doesn't seem to have as much information as Q4!

    Theres a hell of a spread behind some of these averages. i.e. Outer South East - look at the end table; IOW +17%, Basingstoke +11% then Milton Keynes +1%, and from the commentary Malden -5.7%

    This can't be "normal" - I would expect variation but a much tighter spread. Perhaps the big variations are being caused by small sample populations?

  5. Know Birmingham well do you.

    On council estates eh?

    Property 1 - rough area and council estate - WRONG

    Property 2 - rough area and council estate - WRONG

    Property 3 - rough area and council estate - WRONG

    Property 4 - rough area and council estate - WRONG

    Property 5 - rough area and council estate - WRONG

    Keep up the good work.


    I don't know Birmingham at all. If I was thinking of buying a house in an area I didn't know, I would start with a little research. UpMyStreet is usually a good place to start. I picked Property 2 at random - Alwold Road (B29 5JA).

    Here's a little of what it says.

    "These are poor families in low-rise estates.

    The estates are home to nearly as many single parents as traditional two parent families. There are many school age children and families are larger than average. There are also some couples whose children have left home. Housing is usually in the form of low-rise council terraces, perhaps with three bedrooms, but still crowded for the size of family.

    To be earning anything approaching an average income is rare. Long-term unemployment is high, and employment is routine factory or manual work"

    Here's the link

    Sounds a little rough and councilly to me.

  6. 225 in a Uk company in a supposed UK recession?

    Get bloody real. You feel hard done by but these kind of numbers have been made jobless 97' - 2004'on a weekly if not monthly basis.

    In fact your lucky these days to have a job (read contract) of over 12 months.

    There is ALWAYS a lot of personal pain whether personal or company , recession or boom and if you think otherwise then you are wrong.

    Even during 1997 - 2004 there have been repossessions, layoffs, problems. Look and the personal problems experienced by the Birmingham motor workforce over the recent 'boom' years.

    My original point was, did the 92 'recession' have a major effect on your day to day life. I'm sorry that of over 2500 views, it affected you. But by the same token you could ask the question did the 2005 shakeup affect you and only people like those at Rover would respond.

    You are showing your true personality by saying that those that are profiting now are cashconvertors et al.

    You can always prosper by adjusting your approach.

    And your right, my original post was not about the 92' recession.It was about the predicted far reaching HPC

    Get bloody real. You feel hard done by but these kind of numbers have been made jobless 97' - 2004'on a weekly if not monthly basis.

    No- you get bloody real!! I gave you one personal example in response to your original denigration that anyone in the 92 era was affected. Actually at the time we had the infamous end to News at Ten when they went through the list of job losses and company closures every night!! It was a major event when they made an announcement of any new jobs created.

    I don't know off hand the actual numbers of the early 90's recession and to be honest can't be arsed to find out for someone who was obviously still itching to get to use a razor for the first time. I'd be suprised that it was anything less than orders of magnitude more than the last few years though. I agree that recent years have seen a change in working practices and employment terms but true unemployment on the scale that we had then - not a chance.

    Of course, if I'm the only the only one to respond to the 2500 views then you're right. It must have been a non event. It couldn't possibly be that others a) were too young to voice a credible opinion B) been at the wine and couldn't be arsed c) still couldn't be arsed 'cause they don't reckon you're worth spending the time on or d) thought they would reply to other threads.

    By the same context, I notice none of those 2500 views jumped in to support your argument either!

    225 in a Uk company in a supposed UK recession?

    Get bloody real. You feel hard done by but these kind of numbers have been made jobless 97' - 2004'on a weekly if not monthly basis.

    Actually - let's agree to disagree. If you think that things have been bad for the past few years fine; I'm not going to disagree - I'll just add that if this thing really takes hold - you ain't seen nothing yet.

  7. Leftysmate & Pobby,

    Thanks for the nice words.

    Sorry to hear about your problems.

    But if you disagree with me at least have the courtesy to be polite. Especially as you have a degree from a red brick university.

    My problems and those of around 35 (my dept); 225 (uk subsiduary) ; 1500 (European wide company). Trust me -I was being polite; Forget all your subsequent attempts at mitigating your original weasel words, and accept that there was a lot of pain (personal and corporate) around in the early 90's recession.

    I accept that there were some people that inevitably prospered, in much the same way that some are starting to now (debt collection, cashconverters, shorts on CWD, B&Q etc) but that wasn't your original point. Stop changing the goalposts.

  8. Question - did anyone here really notice the 92" recession? Did it affect you day to day life.

    I bet it didnt if 1) You had little debt or borrowing 2) You did not live beyond your means 3) You had a few brain cells.

    Actually I did and it did. And no I personally had reasonable debt (at that time around 2.5 times salary on my mortgage), no further borowings always believing in saving to buy things I wanted and like to think I have a few brain cells with a science degree from a red brick university. So too, did most of the hard working concencious people I had to make redundant.

    I recall the many sleepless nights thinking what to tell the MD why turnover figures why down, why profit margins were being savaged, where else I could make cost savings in the departement even after I had cut advertising, staff training, salary / bonus freezes, maintenance schedules, increased company car replacement cycles from to 2 to 3 years etc. etc. After a couple of painful years there was the then inevitable, re-organisations and redundancies, followed by delayering and redundancies, then just plain redundancies and finally the company went bust. Only then did the last employees find out that things were so bad that the group finance management had done a Maxwell and been borowing from the pension fund.

    Don't tell me I didn't notice the 90's recession you liitle pr**k. Sounds like you were just about enjoying your first fondle behind the bikesheds.

    Apology to Oldie / other mods - I know that you are trying to clamp down on abuse to other posters but this twonk is a complete and utter f***wit.

  9. Slightly off the main thrust of the topic but nevertherless demonstrates the encouragement of taking on extra debt.

    I had a small personal loan with Alliance and Leicester. Just before Xmas I called them to ask what the outstanding balance was as I was in the position of being able to pay it off. After concluding the various security questions I was told that they would write to me informing me of amount I still owed. Somewhat bemused I asked why I couldn't get it over the phone? - I forget the exact reply but it amounted to "company policy".

    I then had a mini rant to the operative about wanting to sort it out now etc.. She suggested I might want to talk to one of her colleagues in another department about adding to the loan. Still slightly in rant mode, I asked if I was in the happy position of being able to pay this one off why would I want to add to it? She just calmly replied "No you misunderstand - You really ought to speak to one of my colleagues about adding to the loan"

    At this point the penny dropped - so I agreed. Sure enough, a few minutes later having been transferred to a different operator in another department and discussing one or two additional details, I was told the balance outstanding was X and I could therefore borrow up to an additional Y, this could all be arranged now over the telephone and how much would I like her to transfer into my account?

    Of course, I politely declined the offer and settled the balance a few days later.

  10. ???

    Where is the evidence ? I could quite easily post "My mate has just had her house valued again and its dropped by £99999999999999999 since last week".

    There has been post similar postings  to this on other forums alas moderators  branded  them UTTER TRIPE and deleted  them ! so all i am asking for is proof! A 45k drop- wishful thinking me thinks :lol:

    Then there is this one from the good 'ole expats site - originally 329K now 300K plus "incentives" worth 11K so all in all 40K reduction. Of course, checking nethouseprices and seeing that next door sold for just 195K in March 2004 might be a reason why it's been around awhile.



    edit: typo

  11. I could start a thread about all my tenants who instead of saving the remainder of their salaries and profits from business spent everything after rent on consumption. Whats the diff?

    ...and how the hell would you know exactly what they earn, how much they spend and how much is left at the end of each month or not?

    Are you by chance admitting to the installation of certain electronic devices during your sundry refurbishments? Is this the real reason why you go to the trouble and expense of converting the lofts you were bragging about a couple of months back?


    Is your favourite film Sliver? http://movie-reviews.colossus.net/movies/s/sliver.html

  12. never got any notice they were reducing the rate (tw*ts !!) only just moved from ING too !

    anyone getting a rate over 5% anywhere ??

    whats the verdict on this ICICI account ???


    First Direct never was that good anyway - lost interest on the whole deposit for the month even if you just took £1 out.

    I've just set up an account with Abbey

    £200,000 plus gets you 5.40%

    £100,000 plus gets 5.30%

    £50,000 plus gets 5.20%

    £1 plus gets 5.10%

    but this does include 6 months introductory bonus of 0.4% - still gives me another 6 months to find somewhere else to put the stash.

  13. Can see where he's coming from - basically it's the usual problem of statistical inaccuracy due to sampling errors when data volumes are low but is his alternative of "....Hometrack looks to rectify this situation by polling estate agents in every section of the market - regardless of the number of sales " which on the face of it appears pretty subjective and equally untransparent and open to misrepresentation any better?

    Or am I misunderstanding how they actually compile their figures. Perhaps Father Fred can shed some light on this?

  14. Speaking anecdotely - know of three people at work, two have put their houses on the market in the last 6 weeks or so - one (on for 395K) off to Australia other (on for 450K) wants to buy a project in Tuscany. The third has had his on the market for best part of 12 months now - started at 375K, came down to 350K then 320K just before Xmas. Put a new kitchen in at the start of the year and put the price back up to 350K!! - obviously no takers. Already has a holiday home in France which he reckons he can never use 'cause it's "so fully rented out" and wants to buy another place to retire to nearby. These people are all civil servants (not one myself - am a contractor) of average ability in junior / middle manager rank; all late forties / early fifties.

    Last year when was viewing places in North Wales, I'd say 1 in 3 vendors were saying that they were wanting to move to buy a place in Spain, most of the rest saying were downsizing and moving closer to kids / grandkids - can only remember one saying that they were buying larger in the same area - and they were "projecteers" who had already bought the wreck to do up (8 months on still haven't sold tho').

  15. I might be able to shed some light on the mentality of your viewers. Mrs L and I sold our house last November and moved into rented.

    The rented house we're in is just about OK but no more and for reasons I'm not sure about there isn't much choice about unless we add megabucks to the monthly STR pot (I'm determined to stay cash flow neutral for this exercise).

    Through following the various wise posts and shared insights on this board I'm pretty sure that we should start seeing some price capitulation (actually we already have on one or two isolated houses but it's not yet widespread). However, I'm a pragmatic type of person and happy to acknowledge that I and the die hards on this board might just be wrong. Mrs L has no patience with these forums so is less convinced - relying on the mainstream media. Actually, from our continued discussions she sees the logic for the correction but she hates renting generally and specifically is not happy in this house. So for her, this often boils over in heart ruling head moments.

    So overall, it just makes sense to keep looking around, and develop a small shortlist of houses we might be prepared to buy (hopefully including some forced sellers to push hard on the price) should market conditions / sentiment change - actually I perceive our greatest risk (having grown up through the early 70's) is not from a mass sudden stampede to buy but an engineering of high inflation - which is something Labour goverments are historically famous for presiding over.

    So in summary - no strong urge to buy, but a strong urge to cover all the bases and to be prepared to move quickly should the need arise and so continue viewing all candidates that fit our criteria - even though it's a real pain and I hate doing it.

  16. You have to wonder  <_<  These people really believe what they say. I have seen this artical refered to elsewhere and I can only think that they have some theoretical model with some really daft assumptions built into it. Result rubbish. As an analyst / scientist myself this kind of output really makes me mad  :angry: .

    Ignore it! Has a gold mine been found in South Cheshire to warrant such special economic behaviour! :angry:

    Sorry got to stop my blood pressure is getting dangerously high.  :angry:  :angry:

    I'm very close to this area and keeping a watchful eye on what's available. Nantwich itself does still seem to be moving though God knows why. It is a typically olde worlde market town that has been ruined by overdevelopment over the past few years - bizarrely most of the latest chavsville overdensity, 1/2 bedroom mews flats and houses have seemingly gone to BTL investors and as such is awash with rental property - take a look at Temples for the list of just one agent.

    You London guys might be used to this choice, but most agencies in most of the other towns around here have a selection of half a dozen rentals at most. Nantwich by the way has a population of around 120K.

    Anyway stuff is selling in and around this area - I'd say it's still way down on last year but is currently faring much better than Chester, which seems to me to be dying a death. But I can't believe that prices are/will increase as suggested.

    I wanted to check the data so I checked the land registry figures as on the BBC site for the Nantwich CW6 postcode and swipe me if it's not +4.2% (compared to Chester -5.6%)!!! Crewe and Nantwich

    So this is probably where they are getting their data from.

    However, I just can't believe this based on my own observations, and reckon there is a **** up somewhere or just one or two outliers skewing the data. Even if this does proove to be right, it certainly is not the case that that these guys can just expand the "good" news to include the rest of Cheshire and the North West generally as can be seen from figures for the other surrounding areas.

  17. Last company I worked for back in '90 had a purge and sacked those with company cars, they then sold the cars within days to a local dealer for cash to help pay wages - it was that bad.

    My recollections from the last recession:

    1) Company cars - not quite as bad as Rigsby's experience but changeover trigger was increased from every 2 years / 50K miles to every 3 years / 75K miles then to every 3 years / 90K miles

    2) Advertising - big cuts in marketing spend. So bigger companies reduce / stop their TV ads, smaller ones stop / reduce ads in their favoured trade journals. Also reduce or miss out exhibition attendance

    3) Training - this is next to go as companies begin to think that there is no reason training people that they might have to lay off in a few months time

    4) Recruitment - there wasn't much need for recruitment agancies as the companies left trading received hundreds of general speculative applications every month

    5) Travel - attendance at seminars / conferences / exhibitions is curtailled and for those where travel is absolutely necessary memos are sent round instructing them to reduce travel costs - I remember being told make sure I fill up at supermarket petrol stations (not motorway services), not to stay in 4* hotels anymore but B&B's / Travel Lodges etc. And forget business class flights - get into steerage with the rest. This time I would imagine employees will be encouraged to use budget airlines like EasyJet rather than the standard carriers.

    6) Silly things! - when it started getting really bad, I remember the senior managers huddled around company expenses / cost summary sheets trying to identify any non essentials. So cleaning the windows inside and out went to every three months instead of every two weeks, employees were asked to bring in and adopt a pot plant rather than pay the company that provided and maintained the office plants around the building and the old guy that came around every week to clean and disinfect the phone handsets suddenly stopped coming.

    Despite all this and much more the company still went bust - worse thing was it was a gradual, slow and painful demise.

    As Rigsby said - recessions are horrible things and I really hope we are not walking into one right now

  18. i suppose this is the big easter/spring bounce/rush they were all banking on. lots of keen couples viewing. busy, busy. phones engaged etc.

    only the 2 EAs i happened to drive by today were........empty.

    Mixed result here.

    Tried to view three houses from three seperate estate agents; 1 x closed for Good Friday - but answerphone message said open tomoorow, 1 x "it's accompanied viewing only and I'm on my own so can you wait untill tomorrow" and 1 booked up for tomorrow. Overall. didn't give me the impression that this was expected to be the busiest day of the estate agenvy year.

  19. Does it mean our estate agent is too poor to afford advertisement?

    If so, is it going to bankrupt soon?

    If so, the sentiment in the local market will change very soon......

    I would call or write to the Ea, voice your concerns and say that this situation has reduced your confidence in them. Then seek assurances as to how they intend to market your house from this point - with specifics on which and what frequency of advertisement in local papers.

    If you don't get answers that reassure you, or if you do and their promises fail to materialise - simply give them the two weeks (or whatever) notice they require to terminate the contract and start getting other agents around ready to kick in when you are free of the original EA.

    I wouldn't mess around - there are plenty of other agents out there and time, if your and others on this boards' instincts are correct, is running out.

    Good luck


  20. Financial Times

    Using plausible estimates for the Treasury's preferred measure of earnings growth, the figures suggest that Gordon Brown expects house prices to fall by more than 1 per cent by the end of this year, with further declines at the beginning of 2006.

    ....but unless I'm misunderstanding this, this is their avearge figure for the UK as a whole (or hole...if you prefer). Given NI continues to boom with HPI at +20% ish, mainland UK would expect to experience be a considerably higher fall - I'm guessing 7 or 8%??. It depends on the overall contribution in value and transaction terms to the rest of the UK - anybody have any figures?

    There will also be some variance around the regions (and as discussed in other threads, probably different property types too) - so in some areas it could be up to 12 - 14% whilst in others just a few %. Guess it re-inforces the need to keep a sharp eye on what's happening in your own locality.

  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.