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Numani

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About Numani

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    HPC Poster
  1. It is easy to understand the higher multiples for the higher earners. The move to also modelling lending on affordability is easy to understand as well. A part of everyones spending is fixed spending and another part is variable spending. The lender knows often there is a lot of "fat" in the variable expenditure that can be released should the borrower have any difficulties with the monthly payments. Their biggest worry is that the high earner loses their job and can not get a similar paying high paying job. But as long as its not more than 1 in 100 borrowers then why care about that. An
  2. John Mauldin weekly newsletter Frontline Weekly guest writer is Gary Shilling. Some very interesting stuff. Of course if analytical research and thought is not your cup of tea...probably bore you to tears. Some great charts as well.
  3. Lets build some houses Home builders slam on the brakes Housing starts hit six-year low while permits, a key sign of builder confidence, slide to the lowest since 1997. NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- New housing starts sank to the lowest level in more than six years in October and a key measure of builders' confidence in the market hit a nine-year low, a government report showed Friday. Both housing starts and applications for new building permits tumbled well below Wall Street forecasts - a sign that the slumping housing market has not yet hit bottom. "Today's figures clearly reveal that a
  4. CNN Money Up 42% over a year ago; Colorado, Nevada and Georgia lead RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure properties, reports that 115,568 properties entered into some stage of foreclosure in October, a 42 percent increase over last year and an incidence of one for every 1,001 U.S. households. The comparison with October of 2005 was particularly dramatic because that month in 2005 recorded the highest foreclosure rate last year. LOTS OF PAIN IN THE USA
  5. "Since last July I have predicting that the US will enter into a recession in 2007. By now it is clear that several sectors of the economy are already in a recession, that Q4 growth will be lower than Q3 growth and that a formal recession (two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth) will very likely start by Q1 or at the latest Q2 of 2007. It is is certainly the case that we are already in a severe housing recession; and this housing recession is nowhere near bottoming out as building permits - the most important leading indicator of future housing - fell another 5% last month and ar
  6. I like how they are testing this in Northern Ireland. i guess not trying to upset the core voters in England! While I do not subscribe to everything the people at Gavekal say - one thing they said was western economies that want to compete with the Far East will likely need their governments to raise porperty taxes and consumption taxes to provide essential services as Income tax and corporation tax can be competed away(avoided) by basing companies and individuals offshore(other countries) especially if your talking about the City of London.
  7. Reports earlier this week have shown prices of both new and existing homes posting declines not seen in decades. And in a sign of the slumping housing market, Pulte Home the No. 1 builder in terms of market value, announced it is cutting 800 workers, or about 10 percent of its staff.
  8. New home sales surged 5.3% month-over-month in September on top of a 3.8% rebound in August. The inventory backlog got cleared to the tune of 1.9% and this helped slice the months' supply tally to 6.4 months in September from 6.8 in August and 7.2 in July. How sales soared and stockpiles sagged so much was because the builders, facing the stress of slumping homeowner traffic and few bids on their properties for the better part of the past year, have become, shall we say, a tad frantic. Desperate times require desperate measures and median new home prices were cut 9.3% on the month and a
  9. Found this an interesting read. They really go to work on a lot of the 'bear' assumptions/scenarios Either way we will know so enough which camp was right. Correcting__not_collapsing___Oct_06.pdf Correcting__not_collapsing___Oct_06.pdf
  10. selected quotes from Seymour Pierce research note out this morning "The outlook for the current trading year and beyond is very good. On a macro level, we are expecting the IVA market to grow to over 40,000 during 2006 (from 20,293 in 2005), and to rise to over 90,000 in the next three years. company is moving into larger, purpose-built headquarters which will allow it to process some 500 IVAs per month - well up from the current (we estimate) 130 or so. the company contends that creditors that sign up to a debts.co.uk IVA are in line to receive 42p in the pound. This is higher than
  11. Is there anywhere on the net I can see this data? i.e the bonds prices and explanation of the structure for each MBS
  12. The Building Society need only worry about getting the bond away at issue after that its no concern of theirs how it trades. All they do is the servicing - collect the mortgage payments minus a servicing fee and pass the rest onto the bond holders. The holders of bonds will trade it in the market as they see fit. The buyers of the bond. Will see limited risk based on lowish LTV. limited prepayment risk - due to restrictions on paying capital off. The Building Society could get this away at 4.8% Yield. Get all the loan capital back at issue of the bond. plus the 0.2 % maybe more servicing
  13. They will offset the risk through issuing a Mortgage Backed Security. Probably yielding about 4.8% at issue. With Strict Multiples and LTV criteria of course. If they can get more seasoned loans in with a lot of more equity than 25% even better Prepayment risk is limited " Over-payments of up to £500 in any one month are allowed without penalty but all other early repayments are charged at three per cent of the amount repaid."
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