Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About md23040

  • Rank
    HPC Regular

Contact Methods

  • Website URL
  • ICQ

Profile Information

  • Location
    Wilderness with good connection
  1. Dublin airport can hardly be seen as roaring ahead. Business remains 18% below 2008 movements of 23million to just over 20.2 million in 2013. Albeit 2013 passenger traffic increased 6% on 2012. Overall on a like for like basis Northern Ireland has over 7.4m passengers through DA, BIA and GBA and to equalise this to ROI business 7.4million divided by 1.8 (Northern Ireland pop) x 4.689m (ROI pop) would give 19.2m passenger movements. ROI Airports of Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Knock had 23.940m passenger movements in 2013 therefore overall Northern Ireland is 19.5% behind. The main items affecting this are (and not exhaustive) (i) Ireland attracts 6.986m oversea’s tourists whilst Northern Ireland only attracts 1.55m (1.03m GB with quite lot business travellers, 0.253m Europeans, 0.163 American and 0.104m other). So unless Northern Ireland can get rid of its sectarian issues, create better tourist product, with more to do, then it’s on a high to nothing. (ii) Dublin is the main hub airport for the Island of Ireland. It is less than 1hour 30 minutes from the greater Belfast region that has a population of close to 1 million thereabouts. London Heathrow has loads more routes than let’s say Birmingham, and people will travel to Heathrow because of its critical mass, same with Dublin. Why would Emirates with daily flights daily to Dubai and Abu Dubai with good profit and 92% load factor decide to open a route out of Belfast and affect its already profitable service (Emirates has a stranglehold on Dubai). Likewise with daily flights from Dublin to Montreal and Toronto. These are all the consequences of open market policy, with all island motorway connection to all major cities (except stroke city whose infrastructure remains pathetically still in the dark ages). Edit - Ireland pop 4.589m
  2. Did anyone ever watch this tripe of “Double your house for half the money” on Channel 4 – see here Anyway two ordinary enough couples in episode 7. The first house in Horsham Sussex was estimated at £330,000 before renovation and no more than 750 square foot – that’s £440 per square foot. Considering a house built from scratch costs £100 per square foot fully finished puts a premium on the site of £255,000. Anyway the couple scrapped together £25,000 to double the footprint, and as the guy was a plasterer he used mate’s rates for free and got most of it done in budget. To cut a long story short Benny reckoned they created £50-60,000 of extra equity as house worth £410,000 and the beams on their faces was incredible. Roll on the executive cricket manager (whatever that is) and his yummy mummy stay at home wife. Terrace house in Wandsworth valued originally at £615,000. They spend £100,000 on loft conversion and extension to ground floor and Benny tells them the house now worth £850,000. Now this pair’s year was made, with the beaming smiles on them as they considered themselves near millionaires without the squandering debt pile. But then based on lending criteria of 3.5 times joint income how is this magic trick created – are most couples in Wandsworth on £175,000+ per year or £242,000 per year to buy an extended house. Who have these sorts of incomes or nest eggs? Based in Ireland and with the whole sh7tstorm that has gone through to make houses affordable, makes me think this propaganda creeping back onto UK TV is such as harmful thing, and it’s going to end really badly, really soon and much more of a messy fallout when it does compared to Ireland. Here’s example of where the market goes after a sh7tsotrm (there are many more) – sold as one lot: twelve x 1800 square foot houses for £166,000 builder’s finish or £7.68 per square foot (57 times cheaper than Horsham). Admittedly it will take another £290,000 to complete houses and street (still 16 times cheaper than Horsham) - but these were originally sold builders finish at £200,000 each (€250,000), and blighty prices have gone way past the madness experienced here so god help anyone there will a large saddled mortgage to income. The last six years were truly awful (3 colleague’s suicide with financial stress etc) but at least there are green shoots of recovery. In my view Cameron should have the IMF’s number on speed dial because he’ll be ringing them soon enough. Link = http://www.sfr.ie/listing/22-33-lennon-grove-ramelton/
  3. From my own sources within the banks they are all lying through their teeth and only reporting figures on repossessions that have actually gone through the system. The amount being slow processed coming down the line though is incredible and a total house of cards. Lies, lies and statistics, a bit like the photo on a dry day.
  4. You're wrong. Treaty change to the articles of its constitution requires referendum within the Republic of Ireland. The appetite for Euro harminisation is minimal. Ireland however will eventually agree to treaty change excluding any increases to CT and In return for a yes vote serious concessions will be extracted. Europe works at a slow speed, dead lines are missed and policies always watered down thinly.
  5. The Irish system is way more perverse than the UK. The wages of public servants can not be cut under the Croke Park Agreement signed between government and unions until 2015 (although governments have habits of breaking promises). This was doing the rounds on talk radio last time over there. - Chancellor of small technical college with 2700 students earns €268,000 last year and seven senior staff earn €100,000 plus and 6 months holidays - Chancellor of Manchester University (largest in UK with 43,000 students) earned £149,00 last year. http://www.northwest-newsgroup.com/donegalnews/2011/11/17/lyit-president-earns-more-than-taoiseach/ or look at ordinary teachers payscale rates for years service (2010) before other benefits and perks. 1 €30,904 2 €31,972 3 €33,041 4 €34,113 5 €35,775 6 €36,853 7 €37,929 8 €40,640 9 €41,994 10 €43,612 11 €45,222 12 €46,844 13 €48,200 14 €49,996 15 €49,996 16 €49,996 17 €52,472 18 €52,472 19 €52,472 20 €52,472 21 €55,744 22 €55,744 23 €55,744 24 €55,744 25 €59,359 There are numberous examples of a bloated way over-paid system that the government are unwilling to address from fear of the Unions. Train wreck stuff and this is the elephant in the room that they fail to address.
  6. My property has a U-Val of 0.18 but the builder wanted to get the insulation to a stage were heat from the TV, lightbulbs etc would be sufficient to generate enough warmth etc in an airtight situation. But this must involve some sort of mechanical heat recovery system? Can anyone explain simply what a heat recovery situation involves? Pump obviously works of about 5 watts Btw was this developement ever built in Lisburn LINKY This Eco Village outside Limerick looks pretty COOL. Would love to be involved in this type of community as long as neighbours weren't overly imposing etc. EDIT ADD/ON 2020 Architects looks pretty good stuff. £69k for turn key passive property UNREAL
  7. If you have outline planning in a good area of North County Down then €100k is a good price. Obviously depends on whether the land is good enough quality, good aspect, easy access, with decent view a bonus etc etc. You are correct in that many houses can be bought below material cost, but you must bear in mind that the spec on houses in Northern Ireland pre-2007 would have U-Val levels below that of a cow shed in Denmark for the same period. The U-Vals and bad quality of workmanship IMO will lead to many houses from 1998 forward being a future drain on resources with depreciation maintenance. You are very right to go down this route and spend the money as a future investment against energy costs. My property is over three floors and 3000 square foot (attic is the cheapest space to develop; it's just a means of some more blocks to ensure the roof space has the same footprint as the other floors). The house uses 600 litres of oil per year from a condenser boiler. Have a wood burner that is linked to 10 rads that can be switched from downstairs to upstairs later in the evening via a low energy pump. This provides ambient heat that builds during the course of the day. Also the insulation is as follows: 4 inch block, 4 inch of air, 4 inch high density insulation (Kingspan) then 8 inch block. Air btw is one of the best insulators. Some rooms have been dry lined to ensure of quickly heating but thermal mass heating from the concrete is an important aspect in the main. All internal walls are solid rather than stud and large concrete slabs on first floor for sound proofing of bedrooms and thermal mass energy retention. The back of the house has the living room and kitchen (most used areas) and this is South facing. The South Face of the house has flat walls (any structures jutting out creates shadows) and the windows in this section are A+8 1800mm tall and let in loads of sun light and heat. Windows at the front are triple glazed and same size. Upstairs windows on South face are 1600mm too. Never under estimate the ability of the sun. Ground floor has also been heavily insulated as are the ceiling in the first floor and second floor attic area. In terms of under floor heat was told this is an expensive heating option. Thinking about the heat having to travel through the floor tile or wooden floor before heating the room does not sound practical, there has to be quite a lot of energy draw and loss. In terms of radiators make sure to go for goods ones such as myson (http://www.plumbnation.co.uk were very good and reasonable). Did not understand heat exchange and was worried about stale air and condensation. In today’s competitive market the quotes from good contractors are so low on margin. Do not under any circumstance go for direct build, hassle on steroids and often costs more. Also most important point of all, make sure to employ a good architect and get upfront costs before starting. Ours cost £1800 (had a Muppet previously who was sacked but charged £5000). So high price does not equate to good service.
  8. The purchaser has done a runner AFAIK and now resides in another property of his in Switzerland. Anyway the British embassy, three doors down recently spent well over 50 million developing their property and adding more land. So it too has now become a proud member of the Dublin 4 negative equity club.
  9. Google are valued at about 55% of Apples asset value. But long term it's going to be the colossus and worth a lot more. The information it has access to through billions of daily search impressions means it's more formidable than any government, never mind company.
  10. Correct. The surveyors are not to blame IMO. Studies have shown the greedy lecherous vendors are the major culprits. For instance, I know of someone who bought cash a new build at 40% discount to original price, and this was a great deal. They were selling their own house but didn't need to for finance of new property, and steadfast refused to reduce their house from peak value because the EA mentioned another house in the neighbourhood sold six months previous (for their price) and someone will eventually come along and love it and buy it. Forward 14 months, the house isn't sold but rented at £650pcm through same EA at 12.5% fee. If you had 200 houses like this, it would be a lovely little earner or £187,200 before costs. This got me thinking that smart Estate agents have probably one of the best anti-cyclical businesses out there. If the economy is doing well houses sell, if the economy is poor then rental provides excellent income. A local EA in Ireland that used to rent me a property once said he had 600 houses on his books with 500 rented with average rent of £500pcm. Now there were 3 persons working for him and many were on DD from bank accounts etc, meant he could still drive all the flashy toys. He stopped selling house altogether but ran a really slick operation. Also there were a team of handymen who dealt with the usual issues and these charges were deducted from the landlord’s monthly rentals plus a bit extra on top for himself. So 500 house X 12.5% pcm on £500 = £31,250 Wages £8000 tops Profit = £23,250.00 pcm or £279k yearly. There's an EA firm I used to do consulting for in Dublin three years ago with 5000 rentals in the city centre. The income was incredible. Loads of hassle dealing with people but he had many minions for this dull work.
  11. What happening in export led China has deep ramifications for the rest of the world including wee Northern Ireland. For years the Chinese have been absorbing costs within their margins and being resentful. But of late, the Chinese are becoming much cockier across the board in all sectors and being more demanding (the balance of power is changing now). I can assure you from September 2011 when these manufacturing calls start reaching the UK, it will be passed on by all the shops and present trading statements are hinting at the same. Swaps on the oil market are still at the same level for June (circa $200) even though OPEC is considering more production? But rather than going off-topic, all these things have a huge affect as well as knock-on, six months down the road into the consumer economy. I do not advocate hyper inflation although it cannot be ruled out, but a dose of inflation erodes debt (and America can give the fingers to the Chinese holding T-Bills) and causes people to spend money rather than save. These are the concerted efforts of Western governments, and if you do not see the wider picture that affects house prices then each to their own. In terms of what to do, Vedanta Trader and I have different strategies. He sells shorts on margin and would be interesting to have his take, but anyways. Look at Maslow’s pyramid and try and work out what happens to commodities that people require, these are the things to buy. I'm not going to pre-empt anything since everyone should DYOR, but VT is right in that the commodity super cycle that lasts 15 years did not go away (look at cotton for instance ~ 150 yr high). http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/soaring-cotton-prices-put-pressure-on-inflation-2078855.html There is no forward stock of the product, everyone is hoarding and buying 16 months in advance, cash upfront. The upshot is inflation is linked to commodities which are about to uptick again. Caveat - IMO
  12. Articles can be pulled off the internet about anything and provide justifiable supports to both sides of any argument. But my worry centres on inflation and the destruction it causes to wealth. I prefer things simple, so here's a very very (exagerrated but who knows where things are heading) simple explanation on inflation. .Look that’s how I see things panning out and debt can be good in these uncertain times. Inflation is coming over the hill, Primark, Marks and Spencer you name it are headlining this issue in trading statements with imported inflation being a major concern to business. If oil reaches June swaps then that accelerator just got NOS.
  13. Nominal wage inflation will lag core inflation, but accelerate nonetheless. Debt erosion through core inflation is the ultimate objective for governments. Wage inflation is really complex and subjective, but from my observations the Chinese are looking for 15% wage rises across the board, and this eventually will be coming to a town near you soon.
  14. [quote name='doccyboy' timestamp='1299510664' post='2918827] I must disagree with you and the other EAs. I think we are in the fear phase just now and it will be years yet before prices get to the bottom after the capitulation stage. I may be wrong but what I see in the marketplace... This is a very interesting discussion and one that I have alluded to on many occasions in the past (whenever my postings were more frequent). There are many people at cause in the whole house price ramping debate, but the primary cause is the greed of vendors. Although in some cases, Estate Agents with large portfolio’s and self interest in ramping things or else plain stupid Estate Agents. But from a pure sales to commission point of view, a fluid market with steady commissions works best for them. e.g. £200k house x 10 on book @ 2% commission = no sales £150k house x 10 on book @ 2% commission = 6 sales (possibly) per month or £18k For a great 101 economics and explanation of the housing market "Freakonomics" by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner book provides a brilliant, funny insight. Amazon Link = Click Here In terms of when to buy a house, it is not a case of waiting for them to become cheap IMO (subjective anyway). My judgement would be to buy later in the current year since inflation is going to hit these shores soon with a vengeance. I have just returned from a trip to Shanghai to meet with UK client companies manufacturing in China, and the cost pressures in the last six months are enormous. It is impossible to contain and there is no choice but to pass prices onto retailers who will not absorb them. Oil does not weight heavily in the Chinese index but it is a huge problem there (as is cotton and other commodity sectors). And with oil up trending and June swaps showing $200 interest, and this commodity being a raw material constituent in almost everything, so if Saudi has its day of rage, then hold on to your seats. I have said it before to get into debt based instruments, all this global petulance of crashing rates etc has its consequences and these intended consequences are what many governments require, namely a strong dose of 70’s style inflation. Get ready for the turbo rocket of trouble, the ride is just starting. Debt will be inflated away, and cure house price woes for governments and banks alike. Add-on I am not from the future these are just predictions, so caveat emptor – Do Your Own Research but thread very carefully.
  15. Does anyone know how eejit earlier posted still photo's from the show. At 12.49 into the programme Philip Thompson (Jedwards Dad)shows off his egg and spoon styled trophy to Mary Portas for salesman of the year. On the side shows the winning dates plus presumably his renumeration. 2004 - Philip Thompson 2005 - Philip Thompson 194k 2006 - Philip Thompson 374k 2007 - Philip Thompson 277k 2008 - Philip Thompson 84k 2009 - Philip Thompson 198k 2010 - Philip Thompson 188k edit 296k! Is it possible for such as idiot to earn that level of dough for so little intelligence and ridiclous appearance. addon - screen shot at 14 minutes 10 shows exactly why a house isn't worth £515k. http://www.channel4.com/programmes/mary-portas-secret-shopper/4od#3159862
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.