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RollOnApril2008

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About RollOnApril2008

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    Richmond, Surrey
  1. The time is nigh! - Article on MSN Money: Win-win for landlords under new capital gains tax laws "April floods With April around the corner and predictions of a fall or at least a faltering housing market, it is likely that many investors will hold out until April before putting any properties on the market, a situation which could see a dramatic drying up of supply until then. After April we may see an influx of residential property coming onto the market as residential landlords take advantage of the more favourable taxation regime. "There could be a flood of buy-to-lets on the market in April," said Ruth Dooley, tax partner at accountants Grant Thornton. "There is a degree of slowdown in the property market so some may want to get out." Inexperienced investors, feeling the stress of the recent higher borrowing costs, will definitely welcome the new tax law. Usually less equipped to cushion themselves against a downturn in the housing market, April 2008 presents the perfect opportunity for them to sell up at a time when there is a shortfall of properties and in doing so, putting a healthier profit in the bank."
  2. Excellent post! But like many of the replies, I don't believe that it will take a generation for the bulls to return. Japan and Germany are good examples that it 'can' happen, our culture is very much different. The modern media ensures that the message will hit home harder and faster these days. Plus, amature investors have learnt to panic and know what a bubble bursting means, so will get out ASAP, accelerating the falls. I believe that the bottom will be reached in an incredibly short period of time: max 2-3 years.
  3. I hope that everyone is still up for Thursday - do we have any idea about likely numbers?
  4. Just a quick note back to you - silver surfer - to let you know about the market in Richmond.... I have a friend who put her 2 bed flat on the market in Richmond 6 months ago (before deciding not to move) and had 5 viewings in one day and the estate agency said that they were doing a total of about 25 viewings per day at that time. She recently put her property back on the market and she only got 1 viewing and the agency said that they ONLY HAD 5 VIEWINGS in total booked for that Saturday!!! An 80% reduction in market activity is a sure sign of a market soon to be crashing... particularly as it is in a much sought after area of Richmond! Tick, Tock, Tick, Tock...
  5. Great - see you all at 7pm on Thursday 29th November!
  6. Do you know why they are predicting that? It would be interesting to hear if they have any other reasons for that specific time-frame (asside from the masses of information available here on HPC!), or whether the CGT changes are becoming the word-of-mouth snowball that will cause the psychological crash of confidence in the market via crowd mentality. BTW: I love the graphic... nice bit of photoshop-ing!
  7. Thanks Van (and tigsrenting)! It's especially nice to get such good feedback from a HPC Veteran numbered 31 - you must be one of our founding fathers! It took me quite a while to collate the information for the piece and condense it into something concise(ish) and readable, so I'm glad that you have appreciated it.
  8. There is a definite lack of supply of rental properties in Richmond, but you get the odd weird event. For example, I think that our property was previously let, but then the people failed a credit chek or something, so it had to go back on the market. Landlords get very nervous after only a couple of weeks of voids, hence why we got our place for a bargain. A few months after we moved in, I spoke to someone in the pub who was paying the same as us for a 2 bed (rather than our 3 bed). But as I said earlier in this thread, Richmond must be awful for yields: I would never invest there! Well done on making a good profit on your place. Unlike others on this site, I don't hold a grudge against anyone who has made money by investing in property. However, if they don't sell-up now and make a loss, then I equally have no sympathy for them. It's just business! Congratulations on getting out at the peak of the market. Have fun with your proceeds!
  9. Well, the answer is that I got a pretty amazing deal!!! It was on the market a year and a half ago for £1,600 per month, but the agent let it slip that it had been on the market for a couple of months, so we got it for £1,450. OK, it's not exactly spacious, but what do you expect from an Albert's Cottage!? Everybody who comes round loves it! This is where I live and it is a beautiful area!
  10. Another good post microbe! My personal opinion is that the RPI should be used above the CPI (although neither exactly measure one's 'personal inflation'), but that house-price to earnings is a better indicator of long-term adjusted growth. Although, with low interest rates being the primary 'cost' of a mortgage, perhaps the better measure is affordability: i.e. NET real incomes against mortgage repayments. But isn't this what got us into the situation in the first place!? However, the overidding fact is that whichever basis is used for comparing house prices over time, just as "all roads lead to Rome", we can see that all the graphs have the same shapes: i.e. the UK housing market is significantly overvalued.
  11. Thank you! I'm not a journalist and it took me way too long to write for me to make any kind of career out of becoming one. However, I do a short (1 hour) presentation once every few months about the 'behavioural psychology of property investment' on a (1 day) property investment training course. I think that it might be against the rules of this blog to mention the company name or give the URL, but a quick Google search will find it. I do it out of interest in the subject though, not for the money.
  12. Yes, that's a bit off-topic, but maybe not as far as you might think... Richmond is one of the very few places that I am aware of on this planet where living under the flightpath of a major international airport doesn’t appear to have much affect on house prices. It certainly affects house prices in Isleworth and Hounslow, but they are louder there (because they’re slightly closer to Heathrow), and who would want to live there anyway!? I do find them a bit of a pain because our house has single glazing. It’s even worse when we have to have the windows open in summer and it’s a bit embarrassing when you’re talking to friends in the garden and have to start shouting. My guests then get the feeling of “why would anyone choose to live here?”. But that thought is quickly changed when I take them for a walk through town to the river. And that’s the point: Richmond is simply a lovely place to live. Richmond is also a great example of a local market where supply and demand play a massive part in house prices. The reason is that it is tiny AND it is going to stay that way: Richmond is surrounded by the river (the Thames, obviously) to the SW, Richmond Park to the SE, and other parks to the NE (inc. Old Deer Park, Royal Mid-Surrey Golf Course and – of course – Kew Gardens). So, yes, the planes are a big pain, but they don’t seem to affect Richmond’s investment potential. However, as per my response to a previous post in this thread, I don’t think that the investment appraisal for BTL’s in Richmond would stack-up, because house prices are double the surrounding area, but only fetch 30% higher rent, so the yields are unlikely to be profitable. BTW: if you’re looking the surrounding areas for long-term growth, be aware of the possibility of future developments at Heathrow. Chiswick and Ealing could see some bad problems in the longer term.
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