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House Price Crash Forum


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About Xeno

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  1. Most major index options are exchange tradeable - in fact in some cases the exchange is your counterparty. Still a risk, but much much lower.
  2. Er, they went up for five months and down for three? That would make them higher than spring. Also the fact that they're 'asking' rather than achieved prices. Asking prices bear little relation to market value when the buyers have disappeared. cheers
  3. This is forgetting that for all the general cases there are plenty of individual circumstances. As a recent STR, it was a lot of hassle moving, but since I can afford the rents being asked and can decide to move back into buying with a sizeable deposit at any time, there's no big downside to renting. If you do that and feel that prices will stay flat or fall, it doesn't feel like there's significant risk. And the potential upside if it happens will more than make up for renting.. cheers
  4. I don't completely agree with that. I just sold a two bedroom flat in SW5, and most of the interest/offers was from cash rich foreigners - although I suppose they may be more attracted by the Kensington/Chelsea angle. I do agree there'll be more interest In Jan though. Cheers
  5. Hi, thanks for the reply. Yes, that's pretty much what I thought, hence my question, in case there was something I'd missed. Spotting overvalue based on well known fundamentals is a lot easier than spotting when prices will come down. cheers
  6. I've re-read it, and all it talks about is the conditions now and what might happen. I'm not disagreeing with that at all. In fact most of the thread is about that part of your original post, which I agree was a good point. I'm still not sure what you say 'we were right' about. But I'll have another go at explaining myself. You appear to be saying you were right here I must be missing something, since the very next move since 2002 was a huge rise, so I don't see how you could have been right then. The reason everyone else has no problem should be obvious - they're in agreement with you about being right and are more concerned with the rest of your post and the subsequent discussion. I'm not trying to have a dig here - just genuinely interested, but if you feel you've explained it well enough, fair enough, I'll leave it. For what it's worth, I agree on all the indicators now, and would love there to be a big correction. cheers
  7. Probably I wasn't clear enough. I'm trying to ask exactly what you were right about, since it doesn't seem that clear to me. You're clearly aware that saying property is overvalued and will fall for a five year period is not particularly clever and doesn't make you right - so what is it? Is it the theory that prices may now fall to the earnings multiple you mentioned in 2002? cheers
  8. Good post, and I can see why you'd want to be right about this - but is it really such a big deal? Overvalued what - such that you shouldn't buy and you'd advise others not to? Overvalued such that there's bound to be a crash? Is it possible that some people might have agreed that it's overvalued and might continue to be for a good while yet, and bought anyway? Well, they might have followed up with - you said the market was overvalued and likely to fall based on very good indicators. It didn't, which if you believe in lessons *could* mean that it might not now. That would have been a much better point. Are you using the 4/5 times earnings revert crash level that may come to justify being right? If there is a crash, it's likely to be to around 4/5 times earning anyway, so how does that really prove you were right five years ago? cheers
  9. Wow, a balanced reading of the facts. Makes a nice change. Apart from the obvious crash-joy, it's not really doing anyone any good to not try and interpret what these articles are saying. Apart from the headline of 'a third' and the first line of 'up to a third', the point made above is a very good one. I fall into that category, and who knows how many others do too. For years we self employed have been second class citizens when it comes to credit. I had two mortgages for 12 years until last week, when I sold one property. I'm now renting. No problems paying the mortgages though. The fact is that no one knows how many of those mortgages might go bad, but to suggest that simply because they don't fit the standard model of employee (who could be sacked next week as companies start to shed jobs?) then they're likely to go bad is simplistic in the extreme. cheers
  10. Lots read it, but I shouldn't think they'll be spitting anything out. While there are some anecdotal falls, most hard evidence shows flat or rising in much of London. We are due some up to date evidence though. I suspect number of sales will be down, but prices won't be initially. From bbc: The slowdown in the housing market is becoming more pronounced, says the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics). Its latest survey of members in England and Wales suggests prices in October fell for the third month in a row, and at the fastest pace since July 2005. London was the only region where prices did not fall during the month, according to the Rics survey. cheers
  11. Come on that's hilarious. It's as bad as the VIs. While 4% might turn into something else, they're even saying that other areas are holding up well. I'm not sure what we'd call a crash here in central London. There certainly is a slowdown, and hesitancy, but 14% down would put prices back to where they were about a year ago. Is that a crash? I wouldn't call it one. cheers
  12. Hi, I'm a new member here. Just about to exchange on selling my flat in central London. Looking to buy something bigger - a house - also in London, so keeping a close eye on the market, price and this forum etc. I've been selling for a good few months, so have a fair bit of experience of the central London market. It's holding up fairly well at the moment - there are still lots of buyers (esp from abroad) but they're trying to offer less at the moment, and are succeeding in some cases. Achieved prices, I'd say, are still above what they were a year ago, but a bit less than 4 months ago. cheers
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