Report Farage Chickens Out Of Newark in Politics Posted April 30, 2014 It seems pretty clear to me that Labour will win the next election with a small majority. UKIP will slice a small but significant chunk of Tory votes, and a medium sized chunk of Lib Dems will drift to Labour. Something like: Cons 30% (220 seats) Lab 37% (310 seats) Lib Dems 13% (35 seats) UKIP 13% (0-2 seats) Others 9% (10 seats) Something like that. The system is stacked heavily against UKIP getting parliamentary seats. The system is stacked against any national party apart from the conservatives and labour getting many seats.