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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by YoungFTB

  1. While the indices will likely show house prices have fallen by more than 50% by the end of this year - it may be hard getting vendors to accept the situation. It would certainly seem that estate agents have realised the situation and are now putting the pressure on sellers rather than waste time on buyers who cannot afford to buy, in significant numbers, even at todays affordable price levels :rolleyes: That's why I would wait until the end of 2010. More vendors will be alot more willing to accept the reality given more time.

    As VT has said - while unemployment is increasing and lending is contracting, house prices will continue to fall.

    Totally agree with you BB BUT if you're a cash buyer I think you'll be able to put in lower offers than those relying on mortgages (more potential to negotiate imo)

    It still totally depends on what happens to the economy (think we agree it's not looking good though)

    I think the key factor is going to be unemployment, the higher unemployment does the more people there are going to be who are going to be more realistic about what they can get for their property, they simply won't have a choice.

    I certainly don't believe that 2009 or 2010 will see the bottom of the property crash but I think by the end of 2009 we will be near the end of the big drops (Around 50% - 60% down hopefully)

    For some people like myself I'll be happy with that, once I see 2005 rateable value houses for sale in my areas I'll be looking to buy.

    Everyone has different opinions and goals on this aspect and I respect that.

  2. Sounds like you're sorted Ricky.

    Just my opinion but I'd say by the end of 2009 or start of 2010 will be the time to start seriously looking for a place.

    Hopefully house prices will have dropped at least 20% this year, if I was in your position I'd want to buy a house with cash.

    I think that would give you extra room to negotiate and the ability to put in lower offers

    Cash buyer, no chain

    Welcome to the forum!

  3. I would wait until at least the end of 2009 before buying a place.

    Some people seem to think that the posters on this forum have a vested interest in trying to influence the opinion of potential FTBers. Truth be told it makes no difference whatsoever to posters on here whether you buy a place now or in a year or 2, the only real difference is going to be the size of your mortgage.

    If we genuinely thought house prices had bottomed out we would be advising new posters to buy now, we'd even be buying a place ourselves but house prices have a long way to go before they are affordable again.

    EAs and developers may be saying that house prices have stopped crashing in value but remember that they are desperate for business at the moment.

    Also http://www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com tells a different story, over 700 reductions last week along suggests that house prices are still crashing in value and will do so for the next few years.

    Welcome to the site!

  4. Warning For Ulster Homeowners

    HOMEOWNERS trying to sell their houses have been given a stark warning by leading estate agents – slash the asking price or the property won't sell.

    With new figures released on Tuesday charting the latest phase of the property market's swift collapse, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors' (RICS) Northern Ireland spokesman Tom McClelland said that those who drastically cut asking prices would see houses sell.

    Amid anecdotal evidence that homeowners across Ulster are reluctant to accept the new reality of prices – which have fallen by up to 50 per cent in little more than a year – Mr McClelland said that homeowners had to follow the lead of developers in slashing prices to get a sale.

    He said: "If sellers in the resale market become more realistic regarding pricing, sales levels will rise significantly from the low levels experienced for much of 2008."

    According to last week's Nationwide House Price Index, property prices in the Province fell by a third in 2008.

    But Belfast estate agent Christopher Pooler said that he believed prices of houses which were selling in Belfast had already fallen 40 per cent.

    Mr Pooler – who has consistently been more candid about the state of the market than many other estate agents – said: "Anything worth selling is roughly 40 per cent down from peak.

    "There seem to be a few more people around and the ones that the prices have come down are generally selling."

    Mr Pooler told the News Letter in July 2007 that he thought prices would fall, at a time when other prominent agents were urging first-time buyers to "get their foot on the property ladder".

    Speaking yesterday he said that he believed the level of sales would increase in 2009 and, referring to the need to reduce asking prices, he said: "I think people understand the situation more now, but I still think that if you look around the prices of houses generally in Belfast, the bottom of the market is stabilising because people are realising that asking prices aren't as high, but that needs to stretch through the rest of the market."

    Today's RICS figures show that although the number of inquiries about house buying increased across the UK during December, the number of actual sales per surveyor fell to its lowest level on record – just over 10 sales per surveyor over the three months.

    Not a single agent surveyed in Northern Ireland reported prices rising during December, but, although the majority of estate agents – 59 per cent – still reported falling prices, that was fewer than in November, when 69 per cent of local estate agents reported falls.

    Mr McClelland, who works as an estate agent, said that there was more misery on the way for homeowners: "The deteriorating economic situation and growing unemployment will no doubt impact the housing market in the months ahead, with lenders remaining cautious and the number of distress sales likely to rise."

    But he added that he believed sales would increase during 2009.

    Propertysnake.co.uk, which records the largest drops in the asking price of individual houses listed on some property websites, shows that one semi-detached home in Comber was listed for sale at £350,000 last May but has now been dropped in price to £195,000 – a fall of £650 every day since May or 44 per cent – and is still unsold.

    However, as vendors desperately cling to the hope that their home has not fallen as far as the rest, asking prices are often failing to reflect the new value of properties.

    One commentator on the House Price Crash website said of the current situation: "Asking prices are more irrelevant than ever – they are now just a gauge of denial."


    Another quality article from the Newsletter!

    It's really nice to see this stuff becoming mainstream

  5. They did keep the best for last in the article .....

    It seems that more people are taking note of what is being said on this website than we realize ......

    We've had Newsletter employees posting on the Northern Ireland forum before, they seem to agree with a lot of the things that are said and I'm very thankful that in Northern Ireland we have a Newspaper who are stating facts and telling it like it is.

  6. The problem is that printing money cannot be taken in isolation. As soon as we start debasing the currency in such a way, it will kill the government gilt/bond markets. Who would want to lend the UK PLC money if the yield returned is dwarfed by inflation?


    - I lend you £100 and you pay it me back a year later with 5% interest.

    - You then debase the currency by making every pound worth half as much by printing more money.

    - You pay me back £105, but now £200 has the buying power which £100 had before. Essentially, I'd have lost money - I'd have been better off not lending you the money.

    - Not only this, but all loans I had previously made over the previous years would be debased in this way too.

    As all government borrowing is currently funded from the bond markets this could lead to big problems:

    - Selling new bonds could become impossible; which mugs would bother?

    - Trust would have been broken and previous bond buyers will not only feel cheated, but will be unlikely to buy again in the future.

    - The less bonds which sell, the more printing will be done. The more printing which is done, the more inflation is caused. It could very quickly get out of control and Argentina/Zimbabwi style hyperinflation could follow.

    With this in mind, quantitative easing (printing) could cause medium and long term problems for both the government and the currency. While it may "fix" the immediate problem of there being too much debt, we would burn many bridges on the way. While debasing the currency would essentially be the aim, it is robbing from the prudent to give to the feckless.

    IMO, this isn't about whether it will fix the debt problem in the short term, it's about the medium/long term. We'd be essentially defaulting on our debts through the back door and our creditors will not be pleased (or be willing to lend again).

    Even if it doesn't lead to high/hyperinflation, there would be no going back. We would have to rely on savers to fund back loans again at this point. Either that or we'd have to crank interest rates right up (to scary high rates... ie. 90s a walk in the park) to try to appeal to foreign bond buyers.

    IMO, it's short sighted and dangerous. The system is trying to purge the bad banks and businesses out of the system and the government is trying to save them, at the expense of the good banks and businesses (who have to compete with these muppets). It's not only immoral, but it's also foolish.

    Nice post Trax, bang on the money imo

  7. In the unlikely event that your internet income were considered 'offshore' by either the UK or Ireland you'd still be taxable on these in the the UK because you are resident and domiciled there. Your citizenship status does not change your domicile status which determines whether unremitted* foreign income is chargeable to tax in the uk (and Ireland).

    * regardless of your domicile status, your income is taxable if you bring the cash onshore.

    Thanks for the clarification Passedit, much appreciated.

  8. HI YoungFTB,

    The 9 months outside the UK is true. I was able to open a bank account, with Bangkok BankBangkok Bank, incidently Marc Faber mentioned yesterday on Bloomberg as being one of the most secure and safest banks at in the world, along with UOB Bank in Singapore. Singapore is the new Switzerland of banking.

    I'll check those out. Thanks VT

    The Thais love you bringing in foreign currency to spend in their country. I want to open a brokerage account, with a couple of companies, not located in the UK, perhaps in Luxemburg, and even the US... and then "if" I make any money, then wire it to the Bangkok bank account, and spend it there tax free. I mean technically I would be working in Thailand(which you do need a work visa for), but I have done this before, and I know others who do it also...Sitting in the privacy of your apartment, on the internet is not very suspicious. I m "just" checking emails and writing on HPC,lol, is that working? ;)

    Nice B)

    However, that is the plan, down the line, it is not possible right now for me...but it can be done quite easily. Not paying tax is a winner in my opinion. Some people say that could be selfish...I dont agree. Why should the government decide how to spend money you earn, better than you can. It has been clear they can't spend it wisely.

    Yep I totally agree with you.

    Long term I'd like a base in Northern Ireland (For the summer months) to catch up with friends and family, I could never see myself leaving Northern Ireland for good (Only if the troubles started again) but considering that over the next few years taxes are going to increase it certainly seems like a good idea to research all options.

    I know my brother has an accountant who can claim him some benefit of him having two passports, Irish/UK. He travels alot with a well known band. I ll ask him exactly what he does, next time I see him, and let you know how its done.

    Thanks man, I'll also see if I can find any useful info online about the subject.

  9. It is annoying, but guys this sort of thing over the coming years is going to become common, place. Stealth taxes, outright taxes are going to go up. We are spending more, yet tax revenues are falling...For anyone young and with no ties, you want to be trying to figure out how to get an income that comes from external sources...ie, outside the UK.

    Internet work...while staying out the country. It is hard to see anything dynamic happening here, and the cost of living and lifestyle are going to change. Have a bank account in another country...

    Correct me if I'm wrong VT, I think you need to be working outside of the UK for at least 9 months of the year to qualify as an Expatriate and this allows you to avoid paying tax to the UK because of your Expat status.

    Also you gotta watch out for those Double tax treaties that a lot of countries have

    As I understand it countries have different rules when it comes to taxing internet incomes, I've only checked a few but I understand Thailand, Panama & Costa Rica don't tax offshore income (i.e. internet income)

    I work online so I've researched this and thought about doing this, I'll be considering it more seriously over the next few years as I completely agree with your post. Higher taxes, more stealth taxes and a lower standard of living.

    I'd also like to do some research into our dual citizenship, considering that we are allowed to claim Irish and British citizenship would it be possible to renounce the British citizenship (and forfeit paying taxes to the UK) so you become an Irish citizen BUT because you live in Northern Ireland (different country) could claim Expat status.

    If anyone knows more about this I'd love more info, I doubt my suggestion above is possible otherwise we'd be seeing a lot of NI/Irish companies doing so.

  10. Yes

    I'm not having at go at you, but didn't you make money out of the sale?

    What on earth is your point?

    What is annoying posters here is that fat arrogant git Nolan is portraying himself as a "victim" of the housing crash when infact he's a property investor who made plenty unloading his portfolio in 2008.

  11. Steven Nolan is a piece of shit!

    In reality he lost nothing because the price is pure speculation.

    Anyone remember about a year ago when the HPC was starting and he would not even touch the subject of property on his shows? Too busy offloading his property portfolio in 2008

    Just like the scummy EAs who where up to their eyeballs in BTL, yep get those properties sold to some mug before you start to discuss the local house price crash.

    Gotta hand it to him, he's a devious git. Offload property investments and then make up a "sob" story for publicity, another "Victim Of The Credit Crunch"

    I seriously can't stand the guy!

  12. Not so sure about that. Inflation erodes mortgage values in real terms. 30-40 years ago, you could buy a house for a few thousand pounds, that was a lot then, not so much now. That's inflation for you.

    Of course if wages don't keep pace, we're in a right pickle.

    Bingo! Without the wage increases we would be screwed, making housing even less affordable

  13. Hit the nail on the head there

    A bit of luck is needed very often, but you need to be in a position to exploit that luck and you do that by taking some risk

    You also need to invest a bit of time

    9-5 Monday to Friday doesn’t do it

    Risk is all relevant , but most people I know in business of which some have done very well and some have gone bust (and some have gone bust and then it all over again) all had one thing in common

    They took risks and invested time that 99% of the population are not prepared to do

    The 9-5 thing you mention is a very valid point! One of the things that separate these people from the rest is their workaholic nature, most people would not even consider working anymore than their 9-5 hours and is one of the reasons why they would never succeed at business.

  14. Not sure that Richard Farleigh is still on Dragons Den, I think this guy will be the only one who will have no problems at all. To the best of my knowledge he doesn't use borrowed money to fund his investments unlike all the others.

    Richard Farleigh was born as one of eleven children in the country town of Kyabram in Australia in 1960. He was placed in foster care at an early age and grew up in Sydney.

    Despite a difficult start in life and being diagnosed as backward at the age of 5, he went on to win a scholarship to study economics and econometrics at New South Wales University, and graduated with first class honours.

    Farleigh worked briefly in the Research Department at Australia's central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, working on economic modelling.

    At 23, he passed up the opportunity for an academic career in economics and joined a leading investment bank, Bankers Trust Australia. There he worked for a number of years in designing and managing swaps and other derivatives. During this period he demonstrated a strong ability at trading financial markets, and was then appointed head of the bank's proprietary trading desk, which achieved spectacular results by predicting big picture trends and by using a trading model he developed.

    In 1992 he was hired as head of a very powerful private hedge fund in Bermuda, which had searched the world for the best candidates. He was able to retire at the age of 34, and moved to live in Monte Carlo. From there he began investing in small companies which were mostly situated in the UK.

    Over the years, he has invested in over 50 start-ups, many of which have floated or been acquired. One such venture has been Home House, a Georgian mansion which Farleigh as a backer and Chairman, help to convert into one of London's most fashionable and successful private members' clubs. Despite his early retirement and being affected by the tech wreck in the year 2000, Farleigh has become substantially wealthy and he has been named as one of the top ten entrepreneurs in Europe.

    Apart from being keen on tennis, skiing and boating, Richard is an internationally ranked chess player, and has represented Bermuda and Monaco in the Chess Olympics.

    To be perfectly honest he's the only investor on Dragons Den that ever impressed me.

  15. Actually I wonder whether you have hit upon something deeper. The music industry has continued to survive inspite of downloading - clearly the world has still been paying for, lets face it, ridiculously priced media. Maybe the coming years will see a widespread drop in sales of discs etc and the music industry will actually come together to create a legal, charged, way of getting your music. I am one who does not like to download illegally and I (and I know others) are only too keen to download legally.... but why would we do it when the costs are comparable to that of getting a disc?

    Who knows I guess....

    The problem with the music industry is greed and a lack of innovation. Ever since P2P programs like Napster where launched it became "socially acceptable" to download things illegally and it's almost impossible to stop trends like this once they develop.

    When these P2P programs become popular THAT was the time for the music industry to become innovative, if the music industry had of got together with the film industry and launched a website where you could download unlimited music and films for a fixed monthly fee they would have created a new multi billion dollar industry, instead they sat on their asses and did nothing other than try and find ways to shut down the file sharing websites/programs.

    There are strong similarities between the decline of the adult magazine business i.e. Penthouse etc and what happened to the music industry. In the case of the adult magazine businesses, they failed to embrace change and simply assumed that the internet was a waste of their time (No doubt it was a threat to their income streams) but if they had of adapted through innovation and embracing the commercial potential of the internet they would have become market leaders instead of watching their business die a slow death by doing nothing but complaining about it.

  16. There is a 18 year business cycle. This cycle usually ends with recession. This is a well known and documented economic occurance. A recession is definitely happening now.

    There are some people who believe what we have entered is a K-winter or the end of a grand super cycle. These K-winters happen quite regularly too. Here is a link to a wiki page about Nikolai Kondratiev - click here. This only occurs once in a lifetime. I'm not saying that is happening now, but it has happened before and it is a possibility that needs to be considered.

    Scary isn't it :( I really, really hope it does not happen.

    Thanks for the link BB, that was really interesting stuff

  17. First and foremost welcome to the forum!

    Personally I am waiting until houses return to rateable value (2005 prices) If houses fall to that level then I'll be happy to buy.

    No one knows where house prices are going, it really depends on what we are facing economically. If it's a sever recession then 50 - 60% drops are very possible but if we are facing a depression then who knows!

    The majority of people who post here feel that prices will drop 50 - 60% in total so I'm waiting until the end of 2009 to see what happens and then I'll start looking for a place.

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