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Posts posted by YoungFTB

  1. The film industry is ALWAYS in trouble. Individual companies go under all the time. It's been like that for decades.

    These days the bigger studios have fallen into the trap of trying to make every film a blockbuster - the figures simply don't add up. Even worse for them, consumers take it personally now. I'm still angry about letting myself be conned into watching the third Matrix film.

    On the other hand there is some great low-budget stuff out there, and the DVD retail market means the producers of good stuff have every chance of making a fair profit. Look at something like "Shaun Of The Dead" - it turned a few million profit. Sounds poxy next to the "big" hollywood films, but as a percentage return on its production costs it surpassed the majority of Hollywood films simply by.... errr.... making a profit.

    Has anyone made an honest attempt to model what bit-torrent et all really does to sales? I know a few people who've first downloaded illegal copies and then decided to support the producers by buying it on DVD. In that sense it's a bit like the original "shareware" concept or giving some coins to a busker.

    Actually Shawn Of The Dead had an estimated $4,000,000 Budget and has grossed over $100 million at the box office

    Source - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0365748/business

    BTW good point of The Matrix films, I want my money back for those last two films. Same with the new Terminator film :angry:

  2. From a personal point of view, I just cannot see how anyone can see this as a good buy. It is such a rip off, it does not offer you value for money. Can anyone imagine what you could self build in the country with £700,000?

    Also, I went to the show room of this place linked below. Now I hear the asking prices are down some what and this type of place can be for over £500,000 now...but look at the 50 pics or that...it is some apartment. I went to the showroom for this place, and when I was there I stayed in a hotel opposite near as it was just finished it is mightly impressive...

    Sizes range between 3000-5500 square feet. Own private swimming pool on balcony for every apartment,two floors, master bedroom with lovely jacuzzi, top class finish throughout with top materials, bedrooms ensuite, amazing gym and large pool on 6th floor.

    Even in the US now, you could have an amazing place for this money, I mean true luxury, same in Oz, New Zealand...for me it is not only the cost which shows how our property is over priced, but the what you actually get for your money when you compare it around the world with similar high end places.


    That apartment looks absolutely incredible VT!

  3. I'd also like to see you completely revamp your search function (make it like Property News)

    I do like being able to select a specific area and seeing property only for that area.

    I think you guys should really try and make your website functionality and format as similar as Property News as possible, currently Property News is the most widely used property website so people are used to how it works so I think people would be more likely to start using your service if it has a format that people are used to.

    I don't like that current advanced search drop down menu you have

    Also on your property listings I think you should have all the photos showing for each house, I'd have a thumbnail of each photo on your listings or you could even go one better and have the full size images of all the photos on the property listings page, sure you'd have slower load times but then the surfer could see all the full size images of that house on one page. This is actually a bit of an annoyance I have with most property portals, bebo, myspace you name it! Most surfers now have broadband (at least 1mb) and yet most websites are still using thumbnails mainly for speeding up load times.

    In the case of property portals people are there specifically to see details about the property and the property photos so why not have all the info on one page, saves surfers having to click a bunch of thumbnail links to see all the info they are after.

    The average number of photos is around the 5 - 7 mark anyway, so that's only about 1 - 2mb in total that'll take no more than 10 - 20 seconds to load at the very most.

    The photos on your site load much faster than the photos on Property News listings though which is a major thumbs up

  4. Sale agreed for that period is over 2,000.

    These figures are captured by catching all the houses that go sale agreed. It would be interesting to capture the houses that go from sale agreed back to for sale.

    Todays BBC article mentioned this

    The volume of transactions remained low, with just 692 sales during January, February and March.

    Some more interesting info from the article

    Overall, 19% of properties in the latest survey sold for below £100,000, while the majority of houses (55%) sold for less than £150,000.

    Source - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8050803.stm

    That info is coming from NI estate agents, so if we could get a figure for the sale agreed for the first quarter of 09 we'd have a good idea of what percentage of sales are going through.

    My apologises if you've mentioned the timescale those sale agreed figures were for previously in this thread, I've not had time recently to keep up to date with this specific thread.

  5. Restrain yourself! Most people are not thinkers or leaders, they are just followers, the polite term on here is sheeple. This is why we need good regulations on Banks etc to protect the public.

    LOL :lol: I think it's mental, MENTAL I tell ya! that the average member of public is so incredibly ignorant about this stuff.

    I loved Merryn Somerset Webb. She didn't hold back, did she!

    She is great :) I thought she was talking faster than most people from NI though :P I think she just wanted to get a load of her points across in the short space of time she had though which is fair enough

  6. Don't worry about out it, aptowner! I think your contribution was very valuable, and your question has a lot of merit. The chippy, dismissive and defensive responses suggest that you've rattled them just a wee bit and that's fun to watch, so thanks for that. But I fear you are right. If you are looking for people to take a hard look at their own attitudes for any signs of the fact-blindness that got us into this mess in the first place, then you are probably in the wrong place.

    I'm a long term bear on this site, and as some people know I sometimes help out Paul65 by attending the auctions and recording the results when he can't get. Although I own property my vested interest is very much in (fast) falling prices as I would like to move to a bigger house some time soon but I am hampered by a dysfunctional property market and crazy price expectations on the part of sellers.

    The problem about groupthink is that it feels good to have your prejudices confirmed and it feels bad to have them challenged. It also feels good to be part of a 'club'. For that reason people cling to it and will lash out at people who tell them they shouldn't. It's also true that the mainstream media mostly publishes complete crap so it's a breath of fresh air to come here and find people who don't believe the prevailing 'high price=good' philosophy.

    The reason I think your point is valid at the moment is that we are at a stage where there is a lot of uncertainty about how exactly things are going to play out in the next year or so. The conventional view on here is that the bubble has burst, nothing can unburst it, and that as all property busts in the past have done it will take years before there is even stabilisation, never mind recovery. That is still the most likely outcome in my view, but it's worth discussing another view.

    The other view has a few aspects :

    - Expectations. When bubbles burst, the investment class is ruined for many years as people completely lose faith in it (eg like the dot com bubble). In fact I don't think people have lost faith in property yet. The complaints about falling prices are still mainly about 'first time buyers locked out of the market', 'unable to get on the ladder', 'banks need to start lending again'. In that sense the general population sees this as a correction in an overall property story that is still positive. Really I don't think people have learn't anything at all.

    - One of the reasons that property is still seen by most as a sound long and medium term investment, and that a fall in prices is an oppportunity, is that there is widely held view that the government will not let prices keep falling, that they will do anything to stop it. This view is in fact a reasonable one to hold as the government are currently opening the taps full in a deliberate attempt to stoke HPI. 150 billion is about 3k for every man woman and child in the country. This is clearly very inflationary, as is the cut in interest rates, and there is no desire to increase mainstream inflation which is currently above target. The hope in govt and in many other places is that this money will flow into property, and they now control both the source of the money and the means of delivering it (the banks). The truth is that nobody knows yet where it is going to go. That is one of the uncertainties we are now dealing with. If it does somehow get into property then it will confirm the view that property is an investment that is not only safe in the long term but that it is implicitly backed by the government.

    - The TDGTTS report recently has shown a small uplift in sales agreed. This is also chiming with anecdotal I am getting on the ground, and from the news reports you are talking about. Now it is true that not every sale agreed will go through, but sales agreed are a leading indicator, and show at the very least a slowing of downward pressure on prices. The falls on the main TDGTTS price page are more of a lagging indicator in a way, as mostly they are homeowners catching up with the reality that the price they are asking has not been achievable for at least a year. Also, the number of properties for sale on PN stopped rising a while ago and has started to fall a little since Christmas, whereas it was rising strongly this time last year. Again this is more of a leading indicator, and suggests the start of a move towards stabilisation.

    What I think deserves to happen is a failure in QE, general inflation followed by interest rate rises, mass bankruptcies of BTL speculators, mass sales of property at auction, a fall of the government, and a general realisation that this is not a correction in property but a capitulation of the entire market. That is what would disprove the 'green shoots' arguments. However it is by no means certain that this will happen. The groupthink you talk about ensures that if things don't go the way us HPC bears want, we'll probably be the last to realise it and admit it. If prices do stabilise before reaching 3.5 times income you'll probably find a bunch of people on here in ten years time like that Japanese soldier found in the jungle in the 70's still fighting the war :-).

    This is the best post in this thread, nicely put!

  7. Even if buyers flood back to the market, there will now be a very recent memory of house prices falling. The old "house prices only go up" myth is now shattered. There won't be the same race to get houses as there was for a long time imo.

    People are worried about their jobs. They are worried about repaying their debt. I really don't think people are going to jump at the chance to buy a house right now at prices which are still more than renting. Before it was about missing the boat as prices rose, but now there is no such pressure.

    Even I don't want to buy a house at the moment and I post on this site lots! :lol: I have just secured a 3 month contract (after some issues were resolved) with a view to renewing for the following 9 months, then perhaps the subsequent 12 months. I am pleased with this, but I've had first hand experience of this recession affecting my business and I'm spooked. I'll be waiting until things feel much more secure before taking the plunge, even if prices were similar to rental costs again. There will be many others worried for their jobs and thinking similar things across the country.

    As shipbuilder says, wage inflation is the one to look out for. However, I would argue inflation offers little incentive for FTBs to buy (and they're the ones missing and stopping the market functioning). Why? Three reasons:

    1. most potential FTBs I know don't have loads of money saved for a deposit, so inflation doesn't affect them directly.

    2. it would make saving a deposit even harder, making housing expensive to buy still.

    3. banks will increase interest rates to offset inflation and still make a profit - high inflation => high mortgage interest rates.

    Of course, there will be a good time to buy if a deposit can be scraped together, jobs can be retained and inflation is on the rise, but not yet; prices are falling and inflation is still relatively low. Wage inflation is non-existent and perhaps negative at the moment too.

    I'm rambling on a bit here, but one last point; I have noticed other people becoming more careful and not just HPCers! A friend of mine is ripping out his electric fire to have an open fire again after the last oil shock. I know people who are not planning on having a holiday this year (who usually would). People are concerned and are responding to the changes happening around them. While we may be more aware than the masses, people aren't stupid - they're beginning to realise the game is up.

    Tell that to your average NI first time buyer and in the majority of cases you're going to get a blank clueless stare.

    It's no different than having this conversation in 2006/2007 with your average NI first time buyer. If the above scenario I'm worried about is played out then that is going to change sentiment and if sentiment changes we can kiss goodbye our hope for affordable housing within the next 18 months.

  8. They're one of the same. Lending in the years up to 2007 was based on off balance sheet, repackaged debt. No one is buying this stuff any more and for good reason - it was snake oil.

    So what happens next? I should imagine banks will return to risk analysis based on similar principles to before the housing boom. What would this be? 3.5x earnings on average. This figure hasn't been derived from the banks or government thinking it is a sensible idea, but simply what the banks are prepared to risk.

    While government funding of the banks can remain so for a while, the pot will run empty. If they start printing in earnest as a result, all bets are off for any sort of recovery. The cost of living will sky rocket and the wages will be playing catch up. Saving for a deposit will become a futile task and mortgage interest rates will rocket (to counter the inflation). Do you think property prices would really increase in this scenario?

    I don't think house prices would increase again but it might put a floor under this house price crash. Also if the government start printing money and giving it to the banks to lend that is really going to change public sentiment plus the VIs (EAs etc) will go on a media campaign championing "green shoots of recover" but this time they'll actually be correct concerning the housing market even though the economy will really turn to shit as your post above has quite clearly pointed out.

    Remember we are a nation of debt junkies, if that tap opens up again (through quantitative easing) there are a lot of people who will jump at the chance to buy a property if they can get a mortgage. All of us here know that house prices are still way overpriced but we are in the minority Trax, this forum does not mirror the average UK public who are incredibly ignorant, most of them will not be putting anywhere near the same level thought into a property purchase as we would do, this is what concerns me.

    This is the scenario that scares me and sadly this is the scenario I see playing out. The prudent have already been punished at the expense of the imprudent as interest rates have been cut (or will be cut to 0%) and I fear this trend will continue with more wreckless actions by the government.

  9. I yet do not care to guess where we will end up but I will be happy enough when my target type of property comes in at £100k. That means something within 10 miles of the centre of Belfast, decent enough area, semi with smallish garden, driveway and garage. I guess we are still talking £150k in general.

    Edit: Just had a glance at my ideal location (Holywood) - £150k gets you into paramilitary land. You still need the better part of £200k if you believe the sticker prices.

    Yep I agree

    £100K for a 3 bedroom semi in a decent area sounds like a reasonable price imo

  10. The 10 places where house prices are likely to fall the most from The Times Online

    Some parts of the UK still have a long way to go before house prices bottom out, according to property experts. National figures mask widespread regional variations – some towns may already be on the road to recovery, whilst others will continue falling throughout 2009.

    Halifax nails its colours to the mast:

    Are those figures correct? I always thought house prices in NI pretty much doubled between 05 - 06? Around 50% each year.

  11. I know 2 people who are currently looking for a house to buy. I have warned them that a DFS sofa at 50% off is still not good value as it was never worth 100% in the first place. It seems to me, that when it comes to houses, common sense is not that common :(

    I have also decided that if people cannot see what is happening themselves - then they deserve to be in negitive equity with a big mortgage which may become unaffordable in the near future. :(

    I've felt the same way for some time now.

    I know of a few people who have money in Irish banks, I've warned them on a number of occasions over the past few weeks to take their money out but they have not listened.

    If the Irish banks collapse like Iceland's have done then it'll be their own fault when they lose their money.

  12. chart is up--- looks about the 600 mark


    actual result 577 drops 23 increases

    -18.8 million



    looks like some suckers believed the "green shoots" of the BelTel. Dropping over a year from 700k to 425k then starting back up again.

    Price Weighted Average Change -13.2%

    Wow! The average price drops are really starting to increase now!

  13. I've said all along that if I could get the house I wanted for rateable value then I'd certainly buy.

    As much as I agree with all these charts and graphs about income multiples etc No one can give me a 100% guarantee that property prices are going to fall as much as we may want here (i.e. 60% or more)

    I'd hate it if I ended up holding out for something that never materialized, plus at the end of this year it's going to be 4 years of waiting to buy a place (waiting since 2005) and to be perfectly honest I just can't be bothered waiting another few years incase the property I want drops an extra 5 - 10%

    As this thread is already showing, everyone's circumstances are different and I respect that.

    I'm sure you already know what feels right for yourself

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