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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by leedsproperty

  1. Private debt holders such as people with pensions and modest savings? Not to mention the effects from loss of confidence in the system. At least you didn't say it was the banks money.....
  2. Obviously future returns are uncertain. But a long term return above inflation (i.e. in real terms) of around 4% has been had historically from a mix of 60% shares and the rest in bonds gilts and property I've read recently. If you want to take a bit of risk, to enable the pot to be passed to your children then perhaps its worth considering draw-down instead of an annuity.
  3. I don't see the fuss. This type of thing is endemic amongst the public sector. Most of the IT contractors on here will be on that. Have they saved £3m whilst covering the councils backside?
  4. Come on. It's obvious this bloke is a big fan of the site. He also seems quite modest. His last couple of articles have been interesting, balanced and factual. Plus I bet he's brought revenue to this site which helps it to keep running so we can continue to benefit from it.
  5. I've been thinking a lot about this recently too. Presumably the people who sold the gilts to the BoE simply bought some more at a fraction less cost, making themselves a few quid and keeping a veneer of credibility that the govt weren't directly printing? I also have been wondering how much printing they can get away with. Is M4 supply about 1500 billion and they have printed about 375 billion, perhaps diluting the money supply by 20-25%. The pound is down by this sort of amount against other currencies which is interesting.
  6. Have you not read about the recent hand back of QE coupons from the BoE to govt?
  7. I can't see govt interest payments increasing. Most existing debt is long term and new debt is interest free from printing. The £ may drop but they will see that as a good thing. As long as the resulting inflation doesn't drive domestic pay demands. Basically we are all going to get poorer due to the cost of imported goods going up even more. The big worry is that deficit reduction seems to have stalled. If they can't get this under control, the printing required will mean debt increases to well over 100% GDP at which point the soft default options will be out of control I guess?
  8. We struggle to get much from Costco that is cheaper than supermarkets unless they have an offer on. Aldi washing powder @ 10p per wash won a Which? award. Lidl seems to be about 30% cheaper for most things. Their breaded fish, mayonnaise, stone baked pizza, ice creams, eggs, biscuits, fruit and veg are all excellent. The weekend offers are normally very good. Tend to aim for 1p per tetley or similar brand tea bags. Usually Costco or big supermarket when on offer.
  9. Interesting. I made the mistake of believing clips from here or maybe C4 news with 'the next leader' guaranteeing that they are out!
  10. So Greece has an election in two months. Now it wouldn't surprise me if this is postponed, but if it isn't, Greece will default. I think that's 100% guaranteed (if it isn't already.) What will happen in the UK, to our bank deposits and what are these govt contingency plans that are fully in place? Presumably house prices in London will continue to rocket as there is a flight to apparent safety.
  11. Lovely charts, many thanks. Is the Excel file available? I wonder if the last chart would benefit from a series with real earnings on there too?
  12. Good news, but I still think inflation might be doing the rest of the work for us.......
  13. I'm sorry but this has something to do with the economy (and kinda houseprices.) Why is it here?
  14. Ten Year Gilt - 4.02% this morning on Bloomberg...
  15. How do you explain the land reg prices with like for like sales then?
  16. Ten year gilts around 3.85% now. I wonder when the next wave of fixed rate mortgage - rate increases will hit...
  17. 4 weeks here - I missed the last collection they did. I'm well pissed off :angry:
  18. I cant predict the future but am now worried that inflation will be doing the rest of the work, in which case there will be no point selling, taking into account transaction costs and hassle renting. We are 20% from peak now (perhaps.) To get another 20% in real terms wouldnt take much more than 4% inflation over the next five years. Hardly hyperinflation. Last time the Nationwide index dropped 40% in real terms the nominal fall was only 10%. Do you enjoy where you live? Can you comfortably afford it if you will be unemployed for a moderate spell?
  19. Does anyone have any evidence (anecdotal or otherwise) that the banks and building societies are holding onto repossessions and renting them out? Presumably with rates so low at the moment, paying savers 2% and getting perhaps 4% on a property they can do this. Hopefully rate increases will soon sort out this practice, if it is occuring, and the floodgates will open!
  20. K2 is the best example. I think that had a fortune spent on it not so long ago.
  21. Perhaps as its based on sales not approvals it will continue to show that prices are plummeting. Just wait till bond yields hit the roof - you aint seen nothing yet.
  22. I think you'll find long fixes are rocketing and being withdrawn at a rate of knots. Bond market is currently saying inflation.
  23. Or are they responding to the relatively large increase in bond yields already? Either way, I think without a long term fix, some nice moderate inflation is going to burn a few fingers.
  24. Speaking to a few people and viewing a few of the mortgage providers websites it would seem that ten year fixes have practically dropped off the horizon. Lenders now want minimum £35k income also. 25% deposits becoming rarer? 40% now needed? Even Nationwide seem to have dropped their fixes for greater than five years. I wonder what their thoughts on inflation are given that
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