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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by rettah

  1. The clue once again is "seasonally adjusted" Non adjusted prices fell by 0.2% - £208,585 in Nov, 208,148 in Dec
  2. Strangely enough, with house prices seemingly flat at the moment, the seasonal adjustment rather than smoothing the market is creating large swings. The rises and falls seem to be little more than the seasonal adjustment.
  3. The seasonal adjustment will still be applied whether prices are rising or falling. If you adjust prices up by 0.8% at some point you have to adjust them down by the same amount. Hence if actual prices remain flat seasonally adjusted prices will have to show a fall.
  4. Was just going to post this. From the nationwide figures we know that they applied 0.8% of seasonal adjustment so all this months rise is probably down to the adjustment. The seasonal adjustments turn negative soon and if NSA prices are flat or showing a fall then the adjusted prices should start to show big falls.
  5. "...and the approach of Christmas" Don't forget this. Never happened before.........
  6. What about all the jobs lost when the local bakers, butchers and other high street shops close down?
  7. Lower highs and lower lows.....
  8. Exactly. If they fell by £2,376 then they fell by 1.4% and NOT 0.7%. 0.7% seasoning added to improve the flavour.
  9. Looking in the actual prices the non seasoned fall is a more encouraging 1.4%
  10. Good article in some ways until you get to the bottom and read this: "The number one reason housing costs have risen is the constriction of supply." no it isn't. It is the supply of easy credit. When are people going to get it?
  11. My "on the market in the last 24 hours" search inc STC for Hertfordshire gave around 90 properties a year back. This increased to 200 at the end of last year and is now regularly around 300.
  12. According to the BBC they haven't fallen just "lost momentum". That's OK then.
  13. A few thoughts: Anyone know if these are seasoned up? "The end of a stamp duty holiday on property sales and snowy weather were cited as possible factors behind the price decline." - Straws, clutch..... "A pause in the upward trend will also be a relief to potential first-time buyers....". But surely the recent rise was a pause in the downward trend which has now continued on its way?
  14. General view seems to be that current prices are only supported by ultra low interest rates. Best comment: "there is a more than a hint of Wile E Coyote about current house prices."
  15. Well I've been looking for a place in hertford for a while. There's a new park development that was started a couple of years ago and 3 bed terraced were originally priced at £575k then reduced to £475k (via £525k) and eventually sold. Next phase was released a couple of months ago, slightly better location, same size houses, priced at £585k-£595k!! None sold yet. Seems crazy to me (even the £475k seemed crazy to me though)
  16. You don't have to be mad, but it helps!
  17. Just sold my flat in north london. Buyer is renting it out for a yield of less than 4% and he needed a mortgage to buy it.........
  18. Once in the threads it's not too bad. My main gripe is why are the threads spaced so far apart? It was easier before to scan over the list of threads and see which ones were of interest, now you have to scroll through them. It does seem like change for the sake of change.
  19. I live in barnet and couldn't believe how anyone would buy a flat there let alone pay £300k for one (and I think the penthouse went for around £600k). When they were building it the ramp down to the car park looked far too steep to get a car down and I notice the underground car park is now chained up and there is a bollard on the access. Reallly is a terrible block in a terrible location. Speaking of comer homes and barnet what about the glass and steel monstrosity on station road......
  20. They still managed to find the money to pay themselves a good bonus this year as well.
  21. All depends on what numbers you look at. Taken on a month by month basis inflation is clearly on the up. June CPI index 111.0 up 0.3 on May up 2.3 since Jan average monthly increase since Jan 0.3% June RPIX index 212.6 up 0.6 on May up 5.1 since Jan average monthly increase since Jan 0.5% June RPI index 213.4 up 0.6 on May up 3.3 since Jan average monthly increase since Jan 0.3% And looking at the RPI figures in more detail: 2008 May 215.1 2008 Jun 216.8 2008 Jul 216.5 2008 Aug 217.2 2008 Sep 218.4 2008 Oct 217.7 2008 Nov 216.0 2008 Dec 212.9 2009 Jan 210.1 2009 Feb 211.4 2009 Mar 211.3 2009 Apr 211.5 2009 May 212.8 2009 Jun 213.4
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