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House Price Crash Forum


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About ItsColdUpHere

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  1. I believe I've just crossed the line into paranoia... I'll stop now...
  2. A cunning ploy - if I answer this one I MUST be an estate agent...
  3. I suppose I didn't say it right. What I meant was "emotional demand" - I want a Ferrari, vs. "economic demand", I want a Ferrari AND have the money. Only one of those is real demand. There is an equivalent on the sale side: I want to sell my house vs. I want to sell my house, but I don't need to and I want X pound. If X pounds is to high for a given area, its not real supply, its just a ****** with a house up for sale. There can be as many people who "want" to sell their houses as you want, but unless they are HAVE TO drop their price to match the amount the demand side is offereing, they can be ignored. There are many houses like this on RightMove at the moment - vastly overpriced for the area. To sum up, my argument is that there are not enough people who willing or HAVE to lower their prices to drive prices down. This situation is entirely created by government support.
  4. I agree with all of that. Without government intervention and government created low interest rates demand would fall as people couldn't afford the higher interest rates or deposits, supply would increase becuase a lot of people couldn't afford to pay their mortgage, and a new, lower, price level would be reached, probably after a massive crash. This is after all what happened in the early 90's. But the government hasn't stepped aside, in fact they are increasing their fiddling. Its that Pesky Reality again...
  5. I think you're wrong about this. I think it will take a rise in interest rates to drive enough of these people out to make a difference. Time will tell, I have no crystal ball, it will be interesting whatever happens. I'm not arguing there isn't a bubble, just that there is no "pent up demand". There IS a bubble, it WILL be deflated by either inflation or price falls over an unknown period of time. What we don't know is how much of the work will be done by inflation, how much by price falls and over how long.
  6. So any argument that doesnt suit you must be a VI. Very Orwellian... You just want a website where you congratulate each other on being cleverer than everyone else, tossing yourself off over your collective wisdom. anybody who disagrees MUST be a VI, because its IMPOSSIBLE for anyone else to hold a valid viewpoint. Whatever.
  7. It only mattera if they're pent up enough to reduce their prices, otherwise they dont matter at all. Demand is only demand if the buyer has the money. Supply is only supply if the seller is either willing or has to sell at thar price. Otherwise neither of them matter. Your pent up supply is conjecture and nothing more.
  8. I dont know why people bang on about real prices - a crash needs to be in nominal prices to affect the people who already live in the houses. If i pay 100,000 for a house, thats what ive paid. a "real price" fall doesnt affect my equity, or myability to pay the mortgage, only a nominal price fall. Does it genuinely matter if my house is now worth less in eggs, dvd's, gas, cars etc? Im paid in pounds, and thats what matters - and wages arent rising at all....
  9. Surely if there is a crash London is MOST likely to go because its pricing level is furthest from what you might call a rational valuation?
  10. I said higher that volume is what will suffer as prices rise. This site is housepricecrash not volumecrash... I have a theory that high transaction volumes were a function of rising prices rather rhan the other way around, as people could move "up the ladder" every few years. There's no point in moving into a similar house to the one you've got every 4 years is there. "There is no ladder now" So volumes will naturally be lower in a static or slightly falling price market. # This theory is tenuous at best and could just be b####cks...
  11. :-) Low prices can only work to INCREASE prices for so long, but they will affect the average price level as long as they are low. I.e. prices will on average be higher with low interest rates than with higher interest rates, because people only look at their monthly payments. Prices will fluctuate in either world of course...
  12. Asking prices are meaningless. I could ask for 1 million pounds for my house then cut it in stages down to 150k where it would actually sell. "look, an 85% reduction" you would yell. But its not really, it would just be an idiot pricing to high to begin with. Only the selling price indices matter.
  13. Theres those who want or have to move out of the market and there's people who want to move into the market. Thats what a market is. The wishful thinking element is that the market has suddenly tipped towards more wanting out than in. I see no evidence of this in prices, which are what markets are all about - price discovery.
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