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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by InternationalRockSuperstar

  1. So if you've got a pension sum worth 6 figures then you loose pretty much all of it? Or are there different rule for pensions to bank accounts?
  2. ...train fares, council tax, school fees, childcare... If you think 23bil in one year is bad then how about 7.8bil a month and rising... Also, you may remember that when M. King was called in front of a Parliamentry inquiery in the wake of the Northern Rock run, he said that he would prefer to COVERTLY give emergency lending to banks. There is every chance that he is now doing that - and of course the banks that have branches in the Eurozone have pigged out on ECB credit. I didn't use the word they so I'm not sure why you've used it, let alone put it in quotation marks Hyperinflation destroys the value of fiat currency, not wealth. It does however transfer wealth, generally to the very well off who do not have fixed income salaries, and who don't have to worry about fiscal drag because they don't pay any income tax anyway. And the rich are more likely to be financially informed and therfore have the foresight to move into Gold. Assetsare going down in the short term, no question about it. Yeah, 5% is wildly LOW for an inflation estimate. $685 trillion derivatives market says no. That a hell of a lot of unwinding to do.
  3. Sod that - get some of the shiney yellow stuff No, but seriously - just HOW BAD do things have to get before you realise that you can't trust ANY financial institutions with your savings. As for eventually getting your money back - does anyone here know what the law says on this one. Is it the 35k limit as with bank accounts. If selftrade goes bust, none of the other financial institutions are well anough capitalised to take it over. They've all got problems of their own to deal with.
  4. *SOCIETE GENERAL OWN SELFTRADE* If anyone here has an account with Selftrade then for god sake get your money out NOW. I just have.
  5. Looked at food prices recently? How about energy? Most energy suppliers just whacked their prices up by more than 10% and you can bet that this will not be the only price rise they introduce this year. Far from it. But Gov't bail outs are going to the moon and deficit spending is going to infinity and beyond... Yes, wage are going down in real terms. The world's financial elites are REALLY F*cking us over this time! Yeah, you won't loose out relative to other peices of paper sh*t. You'll loose buckets of wealth in real terms though so why do it? Toilet paper will hold its value better than paper currencies. Literally. The interest gained in a UK account is less than real inflation anyway. If you think this is all just gonna blow over by tomorrow lunch time... Well they seem to be keeping up so far!
  6. I see one very big difference between now and 1929. In '29, most countries' legal tender was backed by Gold in one way or another. Now they are most certainly not. Holding sterling (or any other fiat currency) poses a massive counterparty risk - the risk that the Gov't will inflate the money supply. Gov'ts , let's be honest, do not have a great track record in this area. If Gov't spending exceeds taxation (deficit spending) then that puts more money (M0) into the system causing inflation. Sure we're experiencing a possible deflation in the supply of credit - but the Gov't will simply increase deficit spending. Two examples: 1) Bush's new tax cut, with no reduction in Gov't spending. 2) As you've probably heard, last month the British Treasury had the biggest deficit on record ever. And anyway, during deflation people will flock to the hardest currency - and the hardest currency is not Sterling and it ain't paper Real or Paper. Take your pick.
  7. Anyone who's expecting deflation has got more than a few screws loose TBH. The UK economy is about to plummet - and it will plummet more than most countries simply due to the enormous amount of debt around our necks. If you want to save a deposit for a house, then it does not make sense to have that deposit invested in anything UK related (UK equities, UK bonds, pound sterling etc). You need to have that deposit saved in an investment vehicle that can be internationally traded. Something that has no counterparty risk.
  8. I'll second that. Gov'ts and Central Banks do not and cannot create wealth. They can print money, but that doesn't create wealth - it just creates inflation. Slashing rates won't make stock market go up in VALUE. It will just make it go up in PRICE because the rate cuts destroy the VALUE of the currency the stock markets are measured in (the dollar in this case). See graph of gold/DJIA for further info.
  9. It could be acheived with coins, but it just wouldn't be worth the effort at the current gold price, especially with coins less than 1 oz.
  10. Since the Gold would be on the outside it would still scratch just as a genuine coin would. As for bending or any attempt to cause structural damage to a Gold plated Tungsten bar/coin - YES you would notice a difference - but most people keep their Gold in the best condition possible and would never attempt to bend/beat their coins.
  11. True, but Tungsten is pretty damn close. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_elements_by_density You'd need something pretty accurate to tell the difference. And what if the counterfeit coin was half Gold half Tungsten. And what if it was 3/4 Tungsten, 1/4 Gold. not sure that point is relevant since the visible part of the coin must be Gold anyway. The best way to tell the difference between a Golg bullion coin and a Gold/Tungsten coin is not by mass density, but by resonant frequency. As far as I am aware, there are no devices on the market specifically designed for this task, however it can be done using certain equipment used for measuring the Young's Modulus of ceremics.
  12. I don't believe there should be ANY property taxes. I mean, you pay £1000+ a year in council tax and what does the council give you in return? A F*CKING WHEELY BIN. And they don't even bother emptying it every week any more.
  13. Rent a small boat. Sail to N.America. Load up on Silver. Sail back. The VAT saved more than paid pays for the boat - and it's not as much effort as you might think - especially if you have relatives on the East Coast
  14. Spot on! And of course if you have 12.2462% annual monetary inflation for 6 years in a row, then your money supply has DOUBLED in just 6 years (which is exactly what has happened). The M4/M0 ratio is unsustainably high, so either M4 has to decrease (credit deflation, loan defaults etc) or M0 has to increase (gov'ts bailing out banks, gov'ts nationalising banks, Central Banks pumpimg out 'liquidity' in exchange for shitty below par mortgage bonds from commercial/investment banks, Housing Associations using billions of gov't money to buy up real estate from 'distressed' developers etc). I think we both know which path they've chosen! And even if it wasn't for them trying to reinflate the dotcom/housing bubble, we'd still have hyperinfation due to all the gov'ts future obligations (pensions etc) You may remember about 2 years ago the UK gov't tried to increase the public sector retirement age inline with that of the private sector. After heavy public sector protests/strikes the gov't backed down. Those 'lucky' public sector employess WILL get their pension (in nominal terms) - but they won't even be able to buy enough groceries to feed themselves with it! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ed4sv6ND5Qo I also read somewhere else that if you take all of Britain's private, corporate and public debt and future obligations and divide it by GDP of Britain in 2006, the ratio that you end up with is actually slight more than if you take Germany's war reparations and divide it by German GDP of 1919. I'll try and find the link. Makes you think dunnit?
  15. Not sure why you can only find up to 2004. If you go to the STATISTICS section of the website and search for M4 you will find data from the 1960s up until NOV 2007 Click for link . December's data is due out next week. M0 was discontinued by the BoE in Apr 2006 (but you can still view the histotic data. Hope this helps.
  16. Your two-line-analogy above is b*ll*x because THEY CAN PRINT MONEY BUT THEY CAN'T PRINT HOUSES.
  17. Given the rate at which central banks are 'injecting liquidity' (ie. printing money) I don't see deflation happening any time soon. At the end of the day, they can print all the legal tender they like, but they can't print Gold, oil or food. If we do get any deflation it probably won't be until 2010 ish - and it won't be as severe as the inflation we're just about to have (it won't restore the value of money to what it was before the inlfation began). I woudn't touch Gilts with a bardgepole. Some lucky 5hits bought 30-year bonds at the tale end of the 70s/early 80s when they were paying more than 25%. Since then there has not been a good time to buy Gov't bonds.
  18. Since the Gov't's monthly RPI and CPI reports are works of fiction, I don't see how I would even go about trying to predict their future values. It's like trying to predict the outcome of the next Harry Potter novel. The RPI and CPI can be whatever the Gov't wants them to be - they simply adjust the weightings accordingly.
  19. Inflation is already 10%+ and are you getting your 11.69% with NS&I? Are you b*ll*x! RPI is a government-fiddled statistic. It is not a realistic measure of inflation. The fact that you wrote "as measured by RPI" in brackets hints that you are already aware of this, so I don't see what the disagreement is about?
  20. Rather than insulting me, why don't you try and explain to me why I should attempt to store my wealth with NS&I, when I know that when I take my 'money' out of NS&I it will buy me LESS goods and services than it does today?
  21. LOL. The UK (Sterling) money supply has doubled since 2001 and tripled since 1997. This year so far; train fares up 14.5%, energy up 15%. Food rose by double digits last year, and will almost certainly do the same. Anyone noticed petrol prices recently? When you consider that inflation is well into double digits (% per year), putting your money in a cr*ppy NS&I account that's gonna give you something pathetic like 5 or6 percent doesn't look so appealing.
  22. Yep. Wars are always about money - never about 'freedom'. Arguably the English Civil War, along with William of Orange etc and all the other cr*p that England went through in the rest of the 17th century was to establish the BoE.
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