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TheCountOfNowhere

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Posts posted by TheCountOfNowhere

  1. 16 minutes ago, Lucky Larry said:

    The fact that Johnson is still clinging on shows he is only interested in himself , it's quite pathetic . 

    It could be worse than that... He could be there for somone else... Like the bankers he wanted us to clap for or the property developers who fund his party. 

     

    His intergenerational mortgages should worry us all and says this man is all about debt and house prices. 

     

    We have a real problem 

  2. 57 minutes ago, fellow said:

    This is looking a lot more promising. I have definitely noticed a significant rise in the number of new daily listings in my area and houses are taking longer to sell.

    Would you be able to provide a breakdown for each area?

     

    #East_Midlands:

    Average Current Asking Price: £344132
    -0.07 MoM   <<<- GOOD NEWS
    +4.83% QoQ
    +10.46% YoY  <<<- A tragedy

    Number of Listings: 14951
    +8.01% MoM
    +20.43% QoQ
    +11.90% YoY


    MeanValue = 290000

    ===============
    #East_of_England:

    Average Current Asking Price: £457081
    +0.66% MoM
    +8.64% QoQ
    +6.14% YoY

    Number of Listings: 26960
    +7.70% MoM
    +17.50% QoQ
    +38.46% YoY     <<<- MASSIVE JUMP IN LISTINGS


    MeanValue = 359500

    ===============
    #London:

    Average Current Asking Price: £1003585
    +1.06% MoM
    +3.98% QoQ
    +13.16% YoY

    Number of Listings: 53448
    +3.85% MoM
    +8.29% QoQ
    -3.16% YoY    <<<- London listings remained high through covid


    MeanValue = 595000

    ===============
    #North_East_England:

    Average Current Asking Price: £228751
    +1.80% MoM
    +5.58% QoQ
    +8.35% YoY

    Number of Listings: 10195
    +8.85% MoM
    +19.28% QoQ
    -2.423 YoY


    MeanValue = 169500

     

    ===============
    #North_West_England:

    Average Current Asking Price: £295285
    +1.72% MoM
    +7.16% QoQ
    +8.73% YoY

    Number of Listings: 29843
    +9.00% MoM
    +18.66% QoQ
    +8.73% YoY


    MeanValue = 225000

     

    ===============
    #Scotland:

    Average Current Asking Price: £255516
    +3.68% MoM
    +12.54% QoQ    <<<- +50% annualised!!!!....it's not a bubble
    +8.36% YoY

    Number of Listings: 9601
    +10.37% MoM
    +25.39% QoQ
    +12.90% YoY


    MeanValue = 180000

    ===============
    #South_East_England:

    Average Current Asking Price: £550290
    +1.62% MoM
    +10.16% QoQ    <<<<<< INSANITY OF THE HIGHEST ORDER
    +10.85% YoY

    Number of Listings: 45948
    +8.01% MoM
    +17.02% QoQ
    +15.53% YoY


    MeanValue = 400000

     

    ===============
    #South_West_England:

    Average Current Asking Price: £457810
    +1.40% MoM
    +11.57% QoQ
    +17.75% YoY 

    Number of Listings: 24594
    +10.27% MoM
    +28.15% QoQ
    +21.04% YoY


    MeanValue = 350000

     

    ===============
    #Wales:

    Average Current Asking Price: £323415
    +1.06% MoM
    +7.07% QoQ
    +13.86% YoY

    Number of Listings: 10241
    +11.8% MoM
    +27.84% QoQ
    +16.05% YoY


    MeanValue = 250000

     

    ===============
    #West_Midlands:

    Average Current Asking Price: £348145
    +1.73% MoM
    +8.20% QoQ
    +13.99% YoY

    Number of Listings: 18756
    +7.93% MoM
    +19.62% QoQ
    -0.59% YoY

    MeanValue = 275000

  3. 15 hours ago, Dunelm Man said:

    Many thanks for the tremendous amount of work that has gone into this thread, especially RR & The Count. 

    Your comment

    " its fair to say that the rate that these reductions are coming onto the market is accelerating."

    fits, with what seems to be an increasingly frenetic number of reductions, certainly in terms of volume.

    I wondered if you could comment on an observation, possibly wrong, but there seem to be an increasing number of properties with followup reductions within 2-6 weeks of the previous one. When you see reductions that close it seems to indicate an urgency to dispose of the property that is different to those where 4-6 months have elapsed. 

     

     

     

     

    Hey DM, no need to thank me, I just hope when the bubble implodes that I've done a little bit to end it.

    Now, why would anyone buy a house when valuations are this out of kilter with reality...this is still £600,000 over priced.

    Image

  4. It's brilliant isn't. Prices going through the roof. 

    I own energy shares, lots of them, 10% divides and prices up 100% in 2 years. 

    Wish I'd bought more. 

    Buy energy shares before you lose out. They're not making any more fossil fuels, energy prices only go up. 

     

    That's how it feels to non homeowners you bunch of ignorant boomer thieves. 

     

    I hope 1000s suffer in their freezing cold 6 bed houses like homeless British young 

     

     

  5. 27 minutes ago, PrincessNutNut said:

    Bullwhip effect in seller supply and buyer demand, it appears.

     

    The median doesn't work so well either if a section of the underlying data set breaks away completely.
    Data set 1: [1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 7, 7] - Median = 3
    Data set 2: [4, 7, 7, 7] - Median = 7

    To avoid comparing apples and oranges, it's probably best to include volume and distribution into the analysis.

     

    Dont you just hate a smart arse.

    I've started using median values because the average is being skewed by top end listings and london.

    London average asking price is 2x the national average and has 1/5th of the total properties

    We dont have  1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 7, 7

     

    we have 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,200,900,1000.

  6. 44 minutes ago, “Nasty Piece of work” said:

    Not a Haliwide retro revision style I hope Count.

    :lol: 

    No, the average values are the same.  I introduced the median for the reason someone has pointed out...

     

    " so it's not inconceivable that the mix of housing on the market is skewing to the expensive side at the moment"

    London/SE/SW have skewed the figures for some time, even in the shires, with so few properties 1 £20M house moves the average up.

    Median prices are the ones to watch now and they stopped dead this month

  7. Slightly better news this month.

    The average price mom went up +0.33%.  
     

    Last 3 months showed around 2% per month increases, so that is a big slow down.

    The big news is the number of listings has shot up 8% this month and is  up 25% from the all time low.

     




    I've started using median values because the average is being skewed by top end listings and london.

    Median current asking price unchanged MOM, last month it was up 3% !!!

     

  8. 10 minutes ago, henry the king said:

    Those nations are already in the flash crash stage. We will too within months. This thing is global and the same forces are at work everywhere.

    So yeh, those headlines are evidence I am right.

    The Rightmove survey is the big one though. That changed everything. In the N/E prices went down 0.8% in a month. And they are just ahead of the curve. 

    We will see rapid falls over the next 6-12 months.

    I dont disagree with you, I think UK is about to be shocked how quickly the wheels can come off.

    We might have a nominal flash crash followed by another 30% real term drop.

    One thing for sure is, the paradigm has shifted.

     

  9. 1 hour ago, henry the king said:

    I think prices will rapidly decline over the next 6-12 months. Probably something like 10-15% in nominal terms in that peroid.

    Here is why:

    1, The market was so frothy. That even a minor change will cause significant nominal falls. For example, if houses start going for asking and not asking +10% then you have a tasty crash on your hands. Basically it is very very easy for the market to come off these highs and won't take much at all.

    2, The cost of living and sentiment will drive this. People are nervous about major purchases and rate rises. And they are being squeezed hard by the cost of living. 

     

    After that what happens?

    Two options imo:

    1, Rates rise above 2% and BTL landlords get in even more trouble. At 3% almost all of them are then losing money. So you see a huge flood of supply and a crash driven by BTL landlords getting out. 

    2, Rates stop at 1.5% or so and the market plods on not going up or down much in nominal terms.

    Here are some of the headlines from OZ/NZ/Canada.

    Image

     

    I dont think it'll be a flash crash...it'll be a Japan Crash.  Prices down,  never to return.

  10. 16 hours ago, Sausages said:

    I was speaking to estate agents today. One mentioned the vendors (both existing and new) had become very nervy and he was getting lots of pressure to sell fast. The problem is the buyers have gone from the market... 

    I am seeing very odd stuff going on locally - nervy is the word. I'm sitting here awaiting the panic phase, which will be coming along shortly. All rather tragic. 

    Whatever could the problem be

    Image

  11. 11 hours ago, Orb said:

    I feel like I've jumped through a sudden time portal or something, lol. 

    I'm just wondering, who on earth valued that house, and the others? I looked at Hartlepool earlier on Zoopla, and noticed 8 houses priced at £5k. They must be truly awful BRILLIANT areas to live. 

    I think the decency of people/neighbors is inversely proportional to the price of your house.

  12. 13 hours ago, Odysseus said:

    I would happily sell all of mine but they are flats with cladding/fire safety issues so are not sellable at present. They are also not mortgageable and are all now on SVRs so my mortgage payments are going through the roof. I’m not increasing rents as it’s not the tenants faults, but with the increased service charges (doubled this year on most of them) I’m at the stage of subsiding some of the properties each month. And I get taxed on the mortgage payments. Joy.”


    You’re fcuked. Declare bankruptcy now and you’ll get it over with sooner. How long until she starts getting repossessed?

    I dont think they get it.

    The chances are they wont be repossessed and will spent a lifetime trying to cover losses.

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