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sja

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  1. If this has already been covered elsewhere, please let me know, but I came across a couple of tweets from Jim Pickard, the FT's chief political correspondent.... "House prices across UK still down 18 per cent from their peak in Q3, 2007, according to Halifax." and "House prices across UK up 10 per cent between 2007 and 2012, according to ONS. Not sure why massive discrepancy with Halifax." I looked up the numbers at ONS.... http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-280905 ... and they seem to be as JP says. The Halifax figures are more or less in agreement with Nationwide's and the Land Registry isn't very different so it seems as though ONS is the outlier. Is there any obvious reason for the disagreement?
  2. sja

    Oxford

    Try here.... http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...&lastyear=1
  3. sja

    Oxford

    There are several flaws in this: - If people can't afford to keep up their houses then, sooner or later, they will sell. - There's nothing unique about retired N Oxford academics wanting to sell their houses for more than people are willing to pay. - Anyone downsizing will lose more the longer they wait. - Most importantly, prices aren't set by people who don't sell. All it needs is one house on a street to sell (perhaps, as you say, because of a death or a divorce or the offer of the job-of-a-lifetime or because some people realise that, when downsizing, selling early in a falling market is the rational thing to do) and the price that people paid two years ago becomes irrelevant. Of course some people obstinately stick to their position even though reality has moved on. Many people kept buying dotcom stocks even as they were falling and held on until they became worthless. No doubt Donald Rumsfeld still thinks his Iraq invasion plan was a good idea. Perhaps even Gordon Brown still thinks he's the right man to be PM. And some people will sit in their crumbling N Oxford houses as, month-after-month, prices fall around them, insisting that what someone paid for their neighbour's house one day in summer 2007 is what their house is worth. But most people aren't like Miss Haversham clinging to the past. At some stage, seeing other prices fall, they realise that dropping their price now is a better idea than waiting for 10 or 15 years when inflation may have savaged any notional pick-up in prices. This is particularly true for aged N Oxford ex-academics. They may own a house with £1M-£2M of equity in it. They'll realise that they only have one life, there may not be that much of it left in good health and dropping their price by a few hundred thousand (particularly when they see others doing so) will make essentially no practical difference to their financial circumstances. At some stage, with running and maintenance costs rising, they'll accept that selling for a good deal less than the mythical "peak value" and moving somewhere more comfortable and easier to look after is the right thing to do.
  4. sja

    Oxford

    North Oxford has indeed had higher HPI than almost anywhere else in the country and falls in asking prices haven't been so marked here as elsewhere in Oxford. Although there have been a dozen or so drops of circa 5% for houses in the £700k-£800k range, prices at the higher end hadn't dropped. Recently however, houses which last summer would have sold in a fortnight for 10% more than the asking price began to stick on the market for months; others appeared, stayed a while and were then withdrawn. In the last week there have been a few falls in prices over ~£1M: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-197...se&tr_t=buy from £1.65M to £1.5M, http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-156...se&tr_t=buy from £1.15M to £995k, http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-163...se&tr_t=buy from £950k to £875k Now no doubt some people will think these houses were originally put on at stupid prices and are still far too high. That isn't the point. Last summer they'd have got their original asking price and more. Now they're down by up to circa 13%. Even N Oxford is beginning to crack.
  5. sja

    Oxford

    Think about how many 4 bedroom houses are likely to have been sold in a month in Oxford. According to Home.co.uk, 15 detached houses were sold in Oxford in January. Suppose they were all 4+ bedrooms and suppose all cost Nestoria's average price of £440k. Suppose that the same number was sold in March and in April but in April's figures one of the £440k houses was replaced by another house costing £1.95M. With that single change the average price increases not by a mere 4.1% but by almost 23%. Averages of quantities, like house prices, which can easily vary by a factor of 10 are inherently unstable when small sample sizes are used. Unless you understand where the numbers come from and their reliability, trying to understand what's actually happening using such small numbers is futile.
  6. sja

    Oxford

    Propertysnake obviously annoys you (with good reason). Property Bee is far better and doesn't have the problems you describe. Why don't you try it?
  7. sja

    Oxford

    In the numbers people have been discussing above LR use the arithmetic mean.
  8. sja

    Oxford

    These statistics can be very misleading. This example is from a post I added to another thread... Suppose last year one detached house sold for £1M and 10 terraced houses sold for £100,000. Average of each type is £1M and £100k respectively. Overall average is £182k. Suppose this year one detached house sold for £1M and 1 terraced house sold for £100,000. Average of each type is £1M and £100k. Overall average is £550k. So, average of both housing types doesn't change while overall average increases by 203%. In case it isn't clear why this happens, it's because the number of each house type skews the average. With small numbers this effect can be quite dramatic and utterly misleading.
  9. Quite right. Here's an example of how misleading the method can be. Suppose last year one detached house sold for £1M and 10 terraced houses sold for £100,000. Average of each type is £1M and £100k respectively. Overall average is £182k. Suppose this year one detached house sold for £1M and 1 terraced house sold for £100,000. Average of each type is £1M and £100k. Overall average is £550k. So, average of both housing types doesn't change while overall average increases by 203%. In case it isn't clear why this happens, it's because the number of each house type skews the average. With small numbers this effect can be quite dramatic and utterly misleading.
  10. sja

    Oxford

    There have been price drops in Summertown, Jericho and other areas of N Oxford, in Boars Hill and Cumnor. Are these the bad areas of Oxford in which you'd never consider living? Just where do you think of as "nice" areas?
  11. sja

    Oxford

    You've misunderstood my posts. The symbpl "<=" means"less than or equal to". That is, the search includes areas judged by Rightmove to be within 5 miles of Oxford. Obviously that includes the centre of Oxford and "within the ring road" where prices for a a large number of properties have been reduced. Even houses and flats in N Oxford are being reduced in asking price. However, the search is for properties of >=£250k (where ">=" means "greater than or equal to") so may not cover the range you're interested in. I strongly suggest that anyone who's seriously interested in seeing how prices are changing should install Property Bee.
  12. sja

    Oxford

    Just go to Property Bee at http://www.property-tools.co.uk/ and follow instructions. You set the price band via Rightmove. Simple and quite entertaining - gratifying to see reality making a long overdue comeback - at least if you're not currently selling a house.
  13. sja

    Oxford

    You're very impatient. All the data are moving in the right direction and quite quickly. First an update for properties in the Oxford area, priced >=£250,000, <= 5 miles from Oxford. Start date is 21/2/08. "Total" is all properties currently listed; change in total, prices reductions, rises, sales (STC or UO) and resurrected are those which have taken place in the week ending on the date in the corresponding row. ("Resurrected" are those previously "sold" properties which have again become available): Date Total Chg in total Reductions Rises Sales Resurrected 21/02/2008 1478 28/02/2008 1545 67 77 1 47 06/03/2008 1603 58 56 6 41 13/03/2008 1682 79 84 1 46 3 20/03/2008 1784 102 83 6 75 10 27/03/2008 1840 56 39 5 25 4 03/04/2008 1895 55 73 3 40 4 11/04/2008 1941 46 80 9 32 13 18/04/2008 2042 101 105 6 44 14 25/04/2008 2102 60 97 1 34 15 Then some observations: - After only two months the total of reductions is now a third of the number of available properties. Naively extrapolating, one can expect that by August more than two thirds of the prices will have been reduced. - The rate of reductions has reached about three time the rate of sales. Prices are being reduced on houses from £250k to over £1M. Reductions run from a few % up to more than 20%. - The rate of "resurrection" has reached about a third of the sales rate. Sales falling through is affecting houses all the way from £250k to over £1M. - Although the number of sales is roughly constant, the sales rate as a fraction of the total number of properties has fallen significantly. The real sales rate (ie taking away "resurrected" properties) as a fraction of the total has almost halved from about 10% per month in March to about 5.5% per month in April. So, sales rate has halved, one house is coming back to market for every three sold and almost 18% of the available houses are being reduced in price every month. And this is in "bomb-proof" Oxford. Is that fast enough for you?
  14. sja

    Oxford

    Update for properties in the Oxford area, priced >=£250,000, <= 5 miles from Oxford. Start date is 21/2/08. "Total" is all properties currently listed; change in total, prices reductions, rises, sales (STC or UO) and resurrected are those which have taken place in the week ending on the date in the corresponding row. ("Resurrected" are those previously "sold" properties which have again become available): Date Total Chg in total Reductions Rises Sales Resurrected 21/02/2008 1478 28/02/2008 1545 67 77 1 47 0 06/03/2008 1603 58 56 6 41 0 13/03/2008 1682 79 84 1 46 3 20/03/2008 1784 102 83 6 75 10 27/03/2008 1840 56 39 5 25 4 03/04/2008 1895 55 73 3 40 4
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