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Mikhail Liebenstein

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Everything posted by Mikhail Liebenstein

  1. Recession? No, No definitely no - blah blah blah Must be the Governments Anti Binge Drinking Strategy working! Three cheers for Dawn Primarolo. Hic Hic horblurrrrrrr
  2. Well the EA's have to make a living somehow. If houses don't sell, sell yourself. Ironically in that trade the office juniors will have more earning power than the seasoned old hands.
  3. Ah, but perhaps the commission incentive to sell at any cost is higher for EA2. Sales guys will try new tactics if things slow and his clients probably know people who have had no luck in selling. It is also likely that the nation chains perhaps dole out national advice, if the whole chain starts saying must drop prices by 25%, then it is easier an EA in the chain to do that - safety in numbers. In a smaller chain, perhaps the feeling is that they have to get the properties on the books ahead of anything else. I would also say the EA2 guy is spot on. If a property is half decent, a 25% drop ought to trigger some interest and possibily a bidding war. 10% counts for nothing now.
  4. BBBBBB bbbb bbbb buttttt, this could kill off the spring bounce.
  5. This should go in the house price crash in pictures thread. Best photo yet. Whatever the actual cause and it is quite likely it is entirely innoconent, the fire brigade will be looking for the source and if anything suspicious is found the police would then investigate. Without making any accusations, the police would then be compelled to take a look at the developers and any off plan buyers as a matter of routine, and possibily even locals who objected to the planning application. All possible motives have to be eliminated and the police I am sure will be very thorough as arson is a very serious crime with a high risk of death being caused.
  6. I have to confess I sometimes use the CC to pay for food and I sometimes run an overdraft. The reason for this? Well it helps me enforce the golden rule of never touching my STR fund or any investments which I also continue to pay into. As long I a don't touch it it continues to grow - currently at the rate of about £2k per month. I do always pay off the CC in full every month and a few days OD don't cost very much. Partly I think this is me compensating for irregular bonus payments.
  7. Jus tried http://www.entitledto.com Tax Credit Award Period:06/04/2007-05/04/2008 annual £ weekly £ Initial Tax Credit award for period: £0.00 £0.00 Working Tax Credit: £0.00 £0.00 Child Tax Credit: £0.00 £0.00 Final Tax Credit award for period: £0.00 £0.00 Working Tax Credit: £0.00 £0.00 Child Tax Credit award: £0.00 £0.00 Load of crap really
  8. Ah that'll be the London that actually falling faster than Surrey then. Seriously I have been watch Surrey and ex Surrey London boarders. Believe me prices are falling and stragely it is the more expensive homes taking the hit. I have seen numerous £250k-£500k reductions in £1-£3m houses and flats. But London is leading the way. Normally the wave of house price inflation travels out from London, but wave can also have troughs, and now London is the source of the trough.
  9. If you really are worried about such things the only safe banks to put your money in seem to be Lloyds and HSBC. Still showing the lowest deafult premiums and certainly Lloyds who were criticised for not playing the RMBS market have now come up smelling of roses. Both offer off shore accounts, so you can save in Dollars, Euro and Yen. Probably the latter being the safest.
  10. Hi Faloos Yes, from www.houseprices.co.uk I can see some interesting past action in this part of Epsom: 1 16/11/2004 £196,000 Flat L No Map 3a, The Quadrant, Epsom, Surrey, KT17 4RH 2 11/10/2002 £350,000 Semi F No Map 5, The Quadrant, Epsom, Surrey, KT17 4RH 3 01/12/2000 £123,500 Flat L No Map 3a, The Quadrant, Epsom, Surrey, KT17 4RH My guess is that the property is perhaps classified as 4 bed semi town house, so probably comparable to number 2 in the sales list. If these were going for £350k in 2002, clearly the sellers will be struggling to sell at the profit they think they should be making over a 5 year period. Were these new build back then? Just shows how overpriced new build stuff is and was. <edit for spelling.
  11. Waitrose own brand stuff is excellent.
  12. Very interesting link off the news blog: Hometrack article Across the country... The latest survey shows that prices were down across 28.8% of postcodes, the majority of which were in London and the South East where values have been slowing off a high base. This is a trend that could continue in London as the supply of homes for sale here is rising faster than levels of demand. London saw a further increase in the supply of homes for sale n March rising by +8.4%, while demand only grew by 2% this month. This really does back up what I am seeing on property bee for Surrey and London with falls appearing quite widely. Partly this is due to a retraction of the last wave of optimism last summer before the credit crunch kicked off. I am guessing a lot of city workers now realise the situation they are in. Although the top people always do well, 90% of city workers end up burnt out husks by the time they are 45, so if they lose money now they won't get it back into the game by the time this recession is over. They'll be considered too old for the job (illegal of course) and lifesyle of a banker. So perhaps those who see the end in sight, or who were going to sell up and retire are trying to exit now. The one thing I do know is, that if I had just spent anything between £800k and £5m on a house in Surrey and I'd borrowed a lot of the money, I'd be dead worried. 40% of £1m is £400k!!!!
  13. Interesting article on C4 News. Northern Rock may be in breach of state aid rules. Could either be wound down or Government may have to pull support. One NR customer, 4.9% deal ended, now paying £1000 per month more. Houses could fall 27% just to get back to 3.5 times earnings.
  14. And now a big drop in Guildford thanks to property bee: This one has dropped twice. Down from £1.7m to £1.5m and now to £1.375m. History date event 1st Apr 2008 15:48:28 * Price changed: from '£1,500,000' to '£1,375,000' 6th Mar 2008 22:51:50 * Agents Address found: First House, Park Street, Guildford, GU1 4XB 5th Mar 2008 19:12:09 * Price changed: from '£1,700,000' to '£1,500,000' * Brief Description changed: 4/5 bedrooms - 2 3/4 reception rooms - 3 bathrooms (2 en suite) bath/shower rooms - Driveway parking - Enclosed gardens 25th Feb 2008 19:41:09 * Price found: £1,700,000 * Brief Description found: 4/5 bedrooms - 2 reception rooms - 3 bathrooms (2 en suite) - Driveway parking - Enclosed gardens * Agent found: Savills * Agents Location found: Guildford * Status found: Available
  15. Just read the article. "Richard Enright, the manager at this Morgan Williams, says the numbers of customers on food stamps has been steady but he expects that to rise soon. "In this location, it's still mostly old people and people who have retired from city jobs on stamps," he says. Food stamp money was designed to supplement what people could buy rather than covering all the costs of a family's groceries. But the problem now, Mr Enright says, is that soaring prices are squeezing the value of the benefits." People who have retired from city jobs - if only! <edit to fix link.
  16. I am in Surrey and a few of us HPCers have been watch the high end, ie £1m plus. Actually this part of the market is getting hit quite badly, as an illustration there is some 1500 homes on sale for over £1m and the sure aren't 1500 buyers. Whilst these sellers may be more stubborn, some are clearly having to sell in a panic. I've found property bee and property snakes falls of £400k and even £500k. The £400k drop was on a £2m house. Also a lot of properties between £1m and £1.3 falling to under £1m as there seems to be psychology going on here - sellers like to think there house is worth £1m so put it on at that level, but hey none of the potential buyers agree. There used to be a bit a lemming trap at £1-1.3m. A year ago buyers were keen to have the status of a £1m house, however, these houses may only be worth £850-950k now and will fall to £700k as the full extent of the crash becomes apparent.
  17. How about the Croc in the Python Effect <Edited for link correction>
  18. Yep, that pretty much sums me up. My take is that this is not a failure of capitalism, but of corporate capitalism. Basically, too much money has been created through debt, and instead of circulating in the real economy, i.e. goods, services and wages, it has in the main pumped up the housing market largely by being injected through mortgages. It should be remembered that the banks were allowed to have the privileges they do as it was seen as a mechanism to distribute economic resources to the productive parts of the economy. Unfortunately that has not happened and so whilst small and medium sized businesses struggle to get loans (which in effect are self terminating as they get paid out of gross profit) other sections of the economy including hedge funds (leveraged gamblers) and the unemployed have been given loans they never should have had.
  19. How about circulating this as an idea. Find a chain with a missing link, and then offer to complete the chain provided everyone in the chain contracts to gives you £20k. If you are a FTB, you could get the 2nd time buyers to sell their £160k home for £140k, and then with 7 other purchases up the line you could then collect £20k x 7. That way you'd get a free house.
  20. Well I have just found this suitable set of EMO Lyrics for you by the "Emo Side Project" The song is called Falling: Lyrics Youtube Falling ringtone on your mobile phone I've had the same dream every night; Me and you on a plane. And I keep waking up before we crash, But right before I do, you whisper We could've had something, We could've had something more than this. You said, let go. As turbulence shook my hand out of yours. And I realized you didn't love me anymore. Glance out the window, as clouds roll by As the plane begins to slowly go down. And it's falling Tonight I won't have that dream.
  21. A further big plunge, this time in Horley. Bob, I do think you are right, these homes are hard to value. So yes definite overpricing going on initially, but they I would think buyers would also be nervous at overpaying unless it is a clear and absolute bargain. Th £1,000,000 (DOWN 23% from £1,300,000) Burstow, Horley (rh6) 8 bedroom house Last updated 26 Mar 2008. Event Historydate event 06 Oct 2007 First day listed (price £1,300,000) 03 Mar 2008 Status changed from listed to delisted 26 Mar 2008 Price changed from £1,300,000 to £1,000,000 Status changed from delisted to listed Link to property snake And Find A Property
  22. Quoting the article "Apartment 502 in a 'luxury' new-build block in Ipswich's Anchor Street is something of a legend in the UK property auction world. When it was first sold in June 2006, it went for £268,000. Three months ago, it was back on the market as a mortgage repossession. The hammer price was £133,000. " Hmmm - Apartment 502 - sounds rather Orwellian to me. Perhaps "Room 101" spun by an estate agent into an apartment and then with a bit of room number inflation on top. "Apartment 502 -No! Anthing but apartment 502! The place where property VIs confront their worst nightmares."
  23. The best bit was the intro graphic at the start of the programme: Here is a quick motion gif summary:
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