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Warwickshire Lad

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Everything posted by Warwickshire Lad

  1. Tonight's phone-in/discussion on the Richard Bacon programme is about first time buyers and today's news - starting now on Radio 5. If you miss it, I expect it'll be preserved on the BBC Radio Player for a week. If anyone else is listening to the programme and wants to post here with reaction, then feel free. EDIT: It starts at 10pm, sorry getting ahead of myself
  2. Timing of the press release is also very important. Note that this report has hit the weekend news when less people are watching the news than the main bulletins in the week, not only that but the bulletins are shorter as well. Also, there tends to be no "business" related slots on at the weekend as well which have always been the conduit for gleeful commentary on the housing boom. The BBC's report on the biggest shortage of FTB's for 23 years and 92% of towns unaffordable today demanded exactly 1 minute and 20 seconds of airtime... On the contrary programmes promoting/capitalising the boom (we all know which ones :angry:) have been demanding many hours in prime-time for a number of years now.
  3. As we go into a downward slide, I'm afraid we'll undoubtedly see many more stories like this appear. I imagine that we'll see some "property debt" related suicides too, as things start to come to a head.
  4. I too find this statement an absolute joke. It's nothing compared to the cost of the house. And coming from a bank that seems to release monthly house price figures that seem to bear little relation to what's actually happening on the ground, it's surely just another vested interest excuse. Nevertheless I do give some credit to the Halifax for releasing a study saying that 92% of FTBs are unable to buy - the way they and other VI's go on most of the time you'd think it was still very affordable for us. Let me repeat - 92% unable to buy - by anyone's measure that is surely the biggest ever housing scandal in living memory ? The same story has been posted in the last hour at the BBC - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4195241.stm
  5. This is why I use the site anyway. I've felt frustrated for a number of years about the housing market, and finally I see a site where I see my opinion is shared by others. Coming back to the site time after time is a real education for me on the housing market and other economic issues. I think it's true to say that there is some impatience that a big fall in prices hasn't happened yet coupled with ongoing frustration that's already lasted several years. I don't blame people for feeling like this because I feel that BTL and investors who see property only as a means to make money at the expense of others have had far too good a time of it, and we want to see the pendulum swing. Personally I do think there is some unnecessary vitriol directed against bulls, and I'd like to see more respect given to opposing views even if you disagree strongly.
  6. Me too ! You can't beat a good lap cat ...
  7. Here's hoping for an interest rate rise on the 10th Feb !!
  8. For way too long it has been "pull the ladder up jack and sod the FTBs and young families with moderate incomes and astronomical child care costs". I agree with your sentiments In this transitional phase however from a bull to a bear market there is pressure on EA's from both sides - from vendors to keep the asking price at the stupid levels the EA's themselves and the media were pushing - but now also from buyers who know the tide is turning and are looking for bargains. It starts with a few grand off here and there, as well as offers which are effectively price cuts in all but name such as "your stamp duty paid etc", but then it snowballs. We haven't reached the snowball phase yet - this is what I'm anticipating the most. This is the prospect that most excites me. Savers like myself simply have not been rewarded and it's time we were !
  9. I totally agree. My local rag also has a "prices won't crash" article - what it merely does is to rehash parts of articles from the national press. Thus far, thanks to HPC.co.uk I've learnt a lot about house prices and feel thankful that I personally have not been taken in by such bullish media. Soft-landing my a**e !
  10. I'd like to nominate three ideas :- 1) The Millenium Crash (or perhaps more accurately The Post-Millenium Crash). 2) The Live and "Let" Die Crash. 3) Gordon Brown's Heavy Bust ...
  11. There seems to be a theory held by some that the UK General Election will have a direct bearing on the timing of a crash, i.e. it will happen soon afterwards. Certainly Gordon Brown will not do anything with taxes until after the Election - and then perhaps he's looking at raising them or cutting public spending. If taxes were to go up dramatically after the Election increasing people's outgoings then I could understand why this might affect mortgage payers, but apart from that I'm not exactly sure why some are timing a crash right after the Election.
  12. My guess is that there will definitely be a proportion of FTBs out there who may be going along with the media line of the moment "prices are bottoming out" and have seen prices falling so are jumping in now. Another factor in them jumping in is probably because they are still subject to the long-held psychology of "prices will always go up" drummed into them by the media and their smug home-owning peers, and so they're rationalising their purchase by feeling that after a small fall over the next few months prices will start going up yet again.
  13. And a good example there of how the psychology of the FTB is shifting - who wants to buy now when you think the price will fall soon ? Given that prices have been rising for so long that the psychology of people is "prices can only go up" this is going to come as a shock to sellers. Prices will continue to fall but most FTBs won't re-enter the market until they're convinced prices won't fall much further. Like I said - who wants to buy when you know prices are going down ? As an FTB I'm refusing to join this market right now. And because I have no house to sell I can wait. People with houses can't afford to wait - personal circumstances will eventually force them to sell at increasingly lower prices. At the moment, the psychology of house sellers is "I won't drop my price much because no-one else is". No-one wants to be the first to drop their price. I suspect this will change. The most desperate sellers will make the first moves - word will then get around as to falling prices and a downward spiral will be created. So, as others have said - bring it on !
  14. I certainly don't think the Internet effect can be discounted - your money can certainly go further on-line. Speaking for myself I bought a few of my presents off eBay and Amazon this year which I've never done before. If you look at chains such as Dixons they have been closing their stores for quite a while since they just can't compete with the Internet electrical retailers on price. But having said that I do agree that there will be some hard times ahead for retail though as people's lifestyles take a hit from having to pay off huge debts. Only a couple of days now until the next Interest Rate decision. Personally I think they'll leave them unchanged.
  15. This approach could pay dividends without having to wait for too much longer. Around 1990, my parents were looking to move. The bungalow they were looking at had been valued at just over £100K. At this time, the previous owners of the bungalow were moving out into a brand new development - the builder bought the bungalow so the bungalow's owners could move into their new house quickly. Shortly after however the market began to crash. My Dad put in a jokey offer of £68K for the bungalow - and the builders accepted. They still live there today. Now it's my turn. A typical asking price for a 2-bed terraced is £115K. Little over a year ago it was around £95K. It has crossed my mind to offer something pretty low like £80K and see what happens - particularly in the case of properties with No Chain, where the BTLer may be more desperate than most to offload his property. It's pretty clear in the newspapers in my area that there are a glut of No Chain properties. There are also a number which are in both the Sales and Lettings part of the paper. Surely as a First Time Buyer with no chain of your own and putting in an offer on a house with no chain - this is an Estate Agent's dream scenario and you are surely in a MUCH better bargaining position to get a quick sale at a knock-down price on one of these types of properties.
  16. The original poster cannot possibly be addressing me. I too have savings and no debt at all - and yes I have a credit card but only use it moderately and pay it off every month. And in the all the years I've been away from home - never have I run to my parents for money. Never. I am proud of this and my parents are proud of me for that. Yet it does seem that other people in the country are running up huge mortgages and credit card bills with impunity. Why have they been allowed to do so ? In today's market there is no way I am going to blow the savings I so diligently worked for over 7 years in order to buy a shit hole.
  17. This is my first post. Hello ! Sorry it goes on for so long but I hope others can empathise with me. What a fascinating site this is - finally I read an alternative view of what I've been seeing in the media for the past several years. I've been living in an increasing amount of fear during this time, feeling that I will never be able to buy my first home. After graduating in 1997, I moved to London to work. My plan was to spend about 3 to 4 years saving up a decent deposit to buy a decent flat there. What transpired was that purchase prices spiralled up faster than my ability to save a meaningful deposit. And I really tried. Despite all the temptations to spend money recklessly and fast in London I avoided it and tried to re-drect money where possible to my deposit, being the sensible sort of person I am. My salary went up considerably as I improved my job skills. But it wasn't enough. After a period of unemployment, I abandoned London to move back to my native Warwickshire in May 2004. I'd spent a total of about £35K in rent. In retrospect it horrifies that I've lined my landlords' pockets to the tune of this amount. I feel ashamed to say this, but I'm now 30, back living with my parents and it feels like my whole life has been "put on hold". Recently I've gained employment again in my local area at a reasonably good salary which I'd say is above average for my area. Add 4x my income to the £20K deposit I saved and - while yes - it is enough to stretch to about £125K which would get a house in my area now - but only something modest. This next bit might sound snobbish - but in all probability if I mortgaged to the max I'd be living around a lot of people in the same fairly average area who've never been earning the wages I have and who never bought their property by saving anywhere near what I have. House prices have tripled overall here since 1997. Doubled since 2001. If I'd had the same money and deposit I have now in my area 3 or 4 years ago, I would be able to buy the property I wanted without such a huge mortgage. Size doesn't matter to me - I don't want a huge house. I just want a two-bedroomed maybe terraced or preferably a semi. That's all. I'm not even bothered about having a garage, as long as I can park my car safely outside in an area where yobs won't scratch keys down the side of my car or lop off your wing mirrors. You can buy £150K + houses in these areas quite easily. Thing is I feel so denied for so long that I'm at the stage where I want the property I buy to actually reflect the hard work and suffering I put in to save the deposit for and the salary I've earnt. I worked hard in London and built things up - I feel I deserve better than what the market is currently offering at current prices. But the thing is, prices here still seem to be going up in my historically reasonably cheap part of Warwickshire (Rugby) - and in some cases sharply. See the following graph and look at the spike between Sep and Oct :- See Graph. So I don't really know what or who to believe. I really want to believe that a 30% cull is coming. Sure - in London, but what about in ordinary streets with modest housing up and down the country. And what about in my particular area ? It is an ongoing trauma which I think about every day. Every time I see a home improvement or relocation programme I switch it off. I'm still hearing radio adverts about getting into investment properties. I switch them off. Every time I hear someone telling me how lucky they were to buy in the mid '90s I want to punch them. When is "my day" going to come ??
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