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Ides of March

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About Ides of March

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    HPC Poster
  1. imupnorth - is this irony or do you seriously believe this? Even in a crash it would be astonishing if mortgage lending did not continue to climb. House price falls don't affect the value of existing debt! This is the nature of negative equity. Mortgage lending can only go down due to redemptions e.g STR. These loans were taken generally out years ago so are by definition likely to be much lower than new loans. So even if new loans fell to an absolute trickle it would take a crash of monumental proportions to actually reduce net lending in the short term. VIs spinning lines about increas
  2. Wasn't it Paul Krugman in the US who reckoned the dot-com boom was a new paradigm - i.e. arguing that the huge rise in stock prices was in fact a new equilibrium and entirely sustainable. I think Nickell is arguing along similar lines. I for one expect the eventual outcome will be similar as well.
  3. Sky news reckoned we were "turning the corner" the other day. I remember people saying that throughout the whole of the last HPC.
  4. is it just me or is this political dynamite? If "government says house prices should fall" is splashed over the papers tomorrow we could be looking back at this point in a few years time as a huge moment...
  5. Another interesting question...if the yuan-dollar peg really is gone for good (although it will almost certainly remain to an extent for the forseeable future), Chinese policy makers will be able to use monetary policy to control their economy in a way they haven't been able to do before. Could it be that world monetary policy will soon to be made in China? Something tells me that the central policy bureau won't have the same reservations about hawkish monetary policy that western central bankers seem to have today. If so, when the Chinese economy needs slowing down - something that is al
  6. I guess if things are only "gently softening", no one will need to call for an interest rate cut then...
  7. I was feeling kind of apocalyptic. Et tu Brute.
  8. By 15th March 2006 the sky will have fallen in. Mark my words IOM
  9. Truth be told, I think the expat forums are a revalation. The plight of the "forced" seller is a really good barometer of where things are going. And we all know what happens to prices in Dave's street when he eventually sells at a reduced price
  10. A small gerbil could bounce quite high. Less air resistance so reaches the terminal velocity quicker. I think it is more of a spring "polite pause"
  11. Astonishing to say but i agree with TTRTR - And another thing... This hairbrained plan to raise the retirement age for graduates means the govenment is effectively saying that graduates are a higher socio economic group to non graduates. Yet their whole higher education policy is based on the idea that people from all socio-economic groups should go to university. Who are these morons?
  12. When even the government starts to think that an asset class can only go up in value you know that, not only has the peak arrived, but it came and went months ago. They probably think they're doing FTBs a good turn. Unfortunately it will all end in tears. Who is going to want the hassle of buying one of these part owned things off a FTB when the BTL crowd start off-loading all of theirs?
  13. King is keen remove the feeling that has been generated in the past couple of days that the next interest rate move will be down. Notice how the £ has fallen significantly over the past couple of days - and stopped falling today. He seems keen to emphasise that even if the economy looks dodgy, interest rates may still need to rise if inflation rears its head. The maradonna analogy emphasises an important point- credibility. Because the BoE was seen to be paying close attention to the economy, markets behaved in such a way that they didn't need to actually take any action. Just as because
  14. Who cares? It's going to take more than a fall in rates to sure up this market. Chances are low anyway, not while inflation looks likely to carry on rising.
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