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House Price Crash Forum


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About Neitherland

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  1. Government has sold remaining stake in Lloyds. Lloyds don't own the Halifax house price index - IHS Markit own it. Other than that really intelligent comment.
  2. I think people who have the deposit/salary to get the current dirt cheap mortgage rates are relatively savvy. The fact mortgage payments are so low allows you to overpay. We are not betting on house price rises - just taking advantage of the current situation to get mortgage free asap. Over 50% of homeowners are mortgage free and that percentage is rising steadily.
  3. It's completely changed. Pre '08 anyone could get a mortgage with any/no income, with no deposit and at crazy multiples of salary. Now the market has split. If you have a small deposit and or require more than 3.5 times salary - they won't lend or if they do it is at a terrible rate. On the other hand if you have a large deposit and salary they roll out the red carpet and practically give you money for free. The rates you can get are amazing. Historically speaking below 4% for a ten year fix is a fantastic deal.
  4. But you fail to note where the forced sellers are going to come from. Sales volumes are going to drastically drop. People just don't take loses on property - even when it would make sense to do so. They'll just sit on the property waiting and waiting... Interest rates will never rise if property values are falling. Increases in unemployment would be the only way to see more defaults - but unemployment is falling. But even if there were mass defaults - bank won't repossess and kick people out any more - it's politically unacceptable and all the regulation works towards banks not want to realise losses. Better for a bank to hold on to a house with a fictional valuation than sell for a real lose.
  5. Over 50% and rising of home owners have no mortgage. Since '08 the LTV of new mortgages has been low and no new liar loans have been issued. Interest rates are low and will remain very low for years to come - especially if house prices rises stop. There are next to no defaults and even if someone defaults there is no appetite for forced sales. House prices in some parts of the country are completely unaffordable with the new mortgage requirements. Stagnation is the way forward...
  6. Not sure of a top 5 but here are some by CDS: ANZ, HSBC, RABOBK, TOKIO-NICHFI, NAB, WSTP
  7. OK agree that's different. It must only be taken from the actual creditors of the bank needing bail out - otherwise there is no incentive for people to be careful where they deposit their money.
  8. All creditors - depositors included - should equally take the pain. Anyone can see which are the safer institutions - if everyone always moved to the safest institution pretty soon all banks will improve.
  9. Tough - two wrongs don't make a right. If you always wait till it's "fair" the correct policy will never be implemented. No government bail outs again. Bank creditors (including depositors) must take the pain.
  10. Well that's basically the same thing. The depositor (creditor) will be losing their money. With the bail in they take some of the depositor's money in exchange for shares in the bank and try to save the bank. But if that's not enough the bank would still go bust and the depositors would still lose their money. Either way if someone else (Government - Tax payer) doesn't bail out the bank the depositor loses all their money (above 85k).
  11. Bail ins are capitalistic and totally the correct thing - they should have happened in 2007-08. When you put money in a bank you are lending the bank money and in return you get interest. You are a creditor of the bank. When a bank like any business goes bust creditors lose money - that's the way it should work. FSCS scheme should be scrapped there should be no protection for deposits. That way people would be careful on choosing their bank and drive responsible banking. Government bail outs encourage bad bank behaviour.
  12. My point is mortgage lending has not been lax over the last over the last 6 years. Even in the last year getting a mortgage has not been at all easy. Rises in prices have not been down to crazy lending. Help to buy has had a tiny affect. These rules changes won't be a game changer. BTW i think these rules changes are very sensible.
  13. Loony London market has been built on very low volumes of sales. It's not been build on High loan to value or high multiple of incomes. ~70% mortages less than 75% loan to value. More than 50% property has no mortgage. Lonely prices driven by cash buyers - on small number of properties.
  14. These rules have basically been in place since '08. Q4 2013 - 65% of new mortgages were less than 75% load to value. Only 1.5% new mortgage were above 95% and on high multiple income. Mortgages have been hard to get for ages and liar loans haven't existed since 08.
  15. What's the big deal? These rules have basically been in place since '08. Look at the approved mortgages counts - historically incredibly low volumes. And the loan to value on those mortgages has also been very low.
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