Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by championmongo1

  1. I am sure it is explained in more detail elsewhere on the site but if you are a Bull you think prices will increase were as if you are a Bear you believe prices wil drop (a term quite often quite often used to describe traders on the stock market as well.) You can change between either dependant on were you believe we are on the property cycle, if you believe property goes in a economic/asset cycle.

    I think I will hedge my bets and stay as neither for now-thanks to everyone for explaining that one to me. I'm sure it's asked all the time but I couldn't find out what it was and again many thanks.

    I'm guessing most people on this site will be bears then??? :P

  2. On the mainland UK in many areas it took around 10 years for prices to recover after the 1990's crash. The UK housing market was on a 14-18 year cycle AFAIK.

    Though, the property values in Japan have been falling from 1990 (when you were 4/5 years old) until the present day. So that's 18 years of falling prices? Who knows when they will ever recover. It may take another generation.

    If this crash is really, really bad, people here may not want to invest in housing for many generations. So, your grand children or great grand children may think that investing in houses is a great idea.

    In the meantime average house prices will revert to their sustainable, long term trend of around 4 times average incomes.

    Yeah but no-one knows what will happen-we are all just guessing. Some people use all the facts and figures they can find, some use their head and some use their heart. Some want to see prices fall to enable them to buy, others want to see stagnation so they don't go into negative equity and others don't seem tp want anything other than being able to keep up with the Jones'. I think it's time wages started increase by huge percentages! This certainly appeals more than seeing prices falling! <_<


  3. no harm to you, but that is a pretty meaningless statement without a timescale applied

    Timescale? OK-I think prices will reach record highs by 2020! Economic cycles are just that-cycles-that go round and round and round.

    Can someone tell me what the bull or bear is about-it feels weird being a neither!

  4. I sold my house in July. I found it extreemly stressful. Finding this website did not help as most of the stuff on here makes sense.

    I have an important question for you consider. Be honest with yourself. How much money do you estimate you have lost already, of the value of your house, having missed the top of the market in the spring time?

    ... and how much does that work at out at month?

    ... then consider that this is only the start of the house price correction/slump/crash.


  5. I didn't see anyone berrating you. Though some of your comments on your position do seem contradictory.

    You really need to do some research on how big the drop in value of your house is going to be.

    Currently the average NI house prices is £240K, average incomes £21k. Ratio 11.5.

    Since the second world war the average price/earnings ratio has been around 4 times income for the UK. I expect large nominal house price falls in the next 3-5 years. Just look at what is happening in America already.

    If you dont mind the value of your house dropping by thousands of pounds per month over the next 3-5 years then hang on to it. Otherwise sell it now and release all the capital which would be better sitting in a high interest bank account for the next few years. Those are your options. It is your decission.

    Good luck.

    I was taking flak earlier on this thread (page 198 I believe). But that's by the by-I mustn't let my frustration get the better of me.

    Anyway I think houses will be worth more in the future than they are now-how long will that take I don't know...

  6. Welcome Champion

    A lot of the 'flak' you have been taking on here is just down to the frustration people have experienced over the last couple of years of house price inflation in NI, which many believe is down to the pure greed of speculators in the local market which has priced out hard working people and families. I know as I have seen houses suitable for First Time buyers in my local area increase in that time from a just about afforable 125k to unaffordable 250k. Most of these people just want a house to live in close to family and friends with out taking on unsustainable debt. I personally feel things are changing with an increase in supply and the whole credit crunch. What has been particulary galling over the past couple of years is the positive spin put on these unsustainable increases is that 'isn't great that prices are going up so fast!' Without the realising that most of these rised are being paid for by those least able to afford them, people starting out in life generally on lower wages due to less experience and the generation that won't be able to afford a pension as all thier money will go on paying for houses which they will have to sell in the end to be able to retire.

    Also many of those who say such things dont realise that is if they were to try and buy now they would be unable to as prices have got so out of line with local wages.

    I think the article written in todays Telegraph by German economists put across the thoughts of many of this site and my feelings as to the futillity of the current predicament of the economy/housing market as a whole:


    I understand the frustration, when I was buying, I thought great, my better half is near graduation and I am a graduate, just like some of my brothers, I will be able to own a nice detached house like them...but alas it wasn't to be. I don't know what is going to happen but I do hope Northern Ireland qualify for Euro 2008! i.e. there's more to life than the housing market as stressed as I may be.

  7. In 40 years? Certainly. In 10? In NI? That I doubt.

    This is now immaterial. Just like the reasonable asking prices (and, I guess, valuations) were in the spring of 2006.

    Maybe so but with so few buyers in the market some houses will not sell no matter how low the price is!

    Yeah, that's realistic - for the moment. Don't let that happy moment go!

    Hey I said 'I thought I was realistic', I just wish I had that crystal ball...

    No, they don't need competition when they still have their own "investments" to offload...

    I think you may have a point there as my EA has sveral BTL's-did he get carried away??

    I was in the same boat a few months ago - in a different country, but in the same phase of a crash. Cannot help wishing you good luck, and giving a piece of advice: choose the most reliable buyer, not the highest offer. It's not sold until it's sold.

    I would take any reasonable offer and look for the quickest completion date.

    It apparently got a bit stronger, but now quite a few "investors" are trying to rent their houses out, having despaired of selling them at what they think is "fair". So don't get carried away.

    What I meant by that is that two of the other houses in my lane (and there are only 11) rented out for £350-£375 per month, 18 months ago, whereas now it would be £425-£450-two houses currently let out at this price. The main local letting agency has 30 people on their books looking for houses to rent and they only have 9 properties left to rent out. They were telling me that at present they are renting out most properties within a week of them being advertised.

    I guess, he hasn't bought those for £150K? Or £170K?

    No, not all of them-he is lucky enough to be able to put down whopping deposits on these properties and is telling me they are going to fund his pension.

    Looks like people are desperate to get out of Belfast and into Carrick! :)

    Funily enough all of the viewers I've had so far are from Belfast with only one being a local man...

    Yes, this is the best attitude, ever! We've only got one life to live.

    Nothing wrong with the post. Best of luck!

    I've posted my replies in bold as I'm not quite sure how this all works-I think this will be my third post so apologies to everyone if it's not clear. Also what is the bear/bull thing all about???

    And thanks for the pleasant comments-most people seem to be berrating me, maybe they want me to give it away for free???

    Anyway the house not selling was realy getting me down but life's too short and because I like to see my fiancee I'm earming lots of airmiles with BMI and every time I'm over there it is like a wee holiday!

  8. That is a change of tune since your first post. You initially implied that your paying for two properties was putting your finances at great risk, something that would be almost certainly made worse by the need to remortgage in January. Have you been able to reanalyse your finances and discover that you can in fact afford to keep two properties on the go, even with the inevitable interest rate rise in January?

    Hi talksalot81

    It is currently putting a great burden on my finances at present but I forgot that when if I move and rent it out that I will not be paying for two properties in their enterity thus taking some of the pressure off. Also I've been looking at the job market in England and for jobs that require similar experience/qualifications to my current job offer superior wages. Thus even if the house sits empty for a while we should be alright as we will be earning higher wages even with the possible interest rate rise in January. I will look into different mortgages at the beginning of Novemeber if the house hasn't sold and evaluate all the possibilities then. I'm new to this game though as this was my first home and I'd rather not be forced into being a landlord but hey sh1t happens! At least I've got my health, my beautiful fiancee and my wonderful cat! Life is good if a little more complicated than I would like it to be at 24...

  9. On MSE there is a thread "Is it too late to sell a house in Northern Ireland?????"

    The OP was valued near £170k and put on the market at £165k. He didnt seem to get any action and has now dropped to £150k and is getting some interest. That is the better part of a 10% drop in a month.

    I'm the OP and that is as low as it will go-I will keep it 10-40 years if necessary and wait for the next boom as there will always be periods of boom and bust! Not ideal but hey what can you do? Valued at £170k at the very end of June AFTER 1 minor price correction had alreay taken place in my local market! Put it on at £165k as I thought i was a realist, then after a two viewers with one bid and they didn't have a full time job, I dropped the price to £160k, seen no movement and within a week I dropped it to £150k! The EA wasn't too happy and thought this was too low even in the current climate but I want a sale and fingers crossed this looks more appealing! It's not an ex-council house and is on a private lane which has neighbouring streets with houses worth between £400k-£500k so at least it's a decent area! I've got a few friends who have managed to shift houses over asking price in the last few weeks and I'm currently going through a phase of second viewings less than 5 days after the last price drop.

    If this gets it sold happy days! If not it will be a long term investment untill the next boom period and I will let it out in the meantime (as the rental market is currently very strong and getting stronger-my brother has 100s of BTL's (where is rental income is at least 1.5 times his repayment mortgages!) and I've seen rents in my area jump dramatically), I will then move to be with my better half in England, just outside London and enjoy our new apartment over there an whatever will be will be!

    This may not be the most popular of posts but it will be interesting to see your reactions!

  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.