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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by championmongo1

  1. Wage inflation is currently holding at 3.5%, which looks pretty average. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7282710.stm
  2. Ha ha ha! Maybe the Russian billionaires will start snapping up Ulster property then my forecast of prices stabilzing by quarter 4 at around 20% lower than peak will be inaccurate as prices would surely rise another 100% if that was the case?
  3. Yeah but with mortgage payments will be a lower percentage of a persons pay than at present thus making houses/mortgages seem cheaper!
  4. It'll be a ship this time not a boat!
  5. I am still some way off negative equity-I completed in May 2006 but had agreed the purchase at the beginning of February. I'm not going into specifics of the purchase price, etc. as that is personal and this is an open forum. However what I can say is that I purchased using a 100% mortgage and in January this year when I re-mortgaged, the bank assumed an LTV of less than 70% and gave me a favourable rate, with no product/arrangement fees & no early repayment charges on a flexible tracker linked to the base rate & my payments are only £4 a month more than when I was on a fixed variable! To change this to buy-to-let mortgage would take 10 days and require no further checks if taken out in the next 12 months and gave me a slighly more favourable interest rate but with an small arrangement fee! So I'm not worrying just yet!
  6. But would that drop not return us to affordable levels everyone using this site says will happen??? lol!
  7. Oooh, a report produced for investors only! Painting a rosy picture I presume? Mmm-hmm. I wasn't entirely convinced buy it but who knows...if they can find houses where the achievable rent is in excess of their mortgage, bearing in mind that most BTL's require a 15% deposit, and for the most favourable rates a 25% deposit. They may have this if they bought house before the peak and sold at the peak! Who knows
  8. Yes I could buy at £150k as a first time buyer now. I'd actually be in a better position now than when I did buy in May 2006 as then the multiple was over 5X my joint income (100% mortgage) whereas now it would be less than 4X (based on current asking price!). I guess that could be described as 'sub prime' but my payments were very comfortable as they would be now had my better half not got a job in England leaving us now paying out for two properties in their entirety! This has made our payments less comfortable but still manageable and we can still afford flights to see each other at weekends. If the house fails to sell it will be let out, leaving my fiancee & I still able to pay for both properties in their entirety but obviously we will be a lot more comfortable when a tenant is in place. Then the house would become part of my retirement plans. Property has always proved a good long term investment, with only specuvestors (i.e. those looking for short term capital aprreciation) getting burned! With regards you saying that wage inflation will stay very low, the following article showing that wage inflation is currently holding at 3.5%, which looks pretty average. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7282710.stm Even so, this means that a person earning say £21k now would be on £25k in five years, £31k in ten, £45k in twenty etc, etc. This could be slightly out depending on exactly what inflation does but does give a rough idea of what we can expect based on average wage inflation!
  9. Ah! I see the error of my ways-that will teach me for trying to read these posts quickly in between 'real work'!
  10. Maybe, maybe not! We shall see, but if the drops do continue as you think they will it will be even more in my interest to keep and let it out because there would be no capital to withdraw if sold (I bought in May 2006!). Thus keeping it would be the only option and as long as the achievable rent covers the mortgage then fine! Property has always proven to be a sound investment in the long term and in 41 years when I reach 65, I'm positive prices here will have surpassed even their April 2007 peak! However I really don't think prices will continue to drop at 7.8% per quarter for the next 2-3 years as as been suggested on here! I honestly believe prices for decent houses in decent areas will have stabilized by quarter 4 of this year by which time prices will have dropped 20% from their peak! No rises for a few years though-so a drop in real terms due to inflation but then...the ship will sail again, although a lot more slowly!!!
  11. A 95% drop is massive but very unlikey! How many of you are seriously expecting a 95% drop!?!
  12. Yes welcome to the board and it's good to hear some positive comments from someone 'on the ground' regarding the local property market, Especaially as an OO looking to sell! They may snap but they don't usually bite unless your posts get too long! lol!
  13. Don't worry-I will still be here! lol!
  14. That's exactly what I see happening in my area with desperate sellars taking very low offers from investors, who will see the rent cover the mortgage and then when the market does pick up, bang a nice capital profit to boot! This view will probably be hammered here because of the average wage, how we should return to 2.5x multiplier, 1974 prices, blah, blah, blah. People don't usually start off in their dream home but move up the ladder in time, some people here seem to forget that, and I concede that some properties are still overpriced but some have become reasonable so why not take advantage! There have always been private landlords, there always will be and the time to buy is when prices and interst are low as you can grab a bargain or dream home! Then sit back knowing that over the medium to long term, property has always been a sound investment!
  15. Yeah that kinda of thing scares me quite a bit as below highlights, and these figures are from before the nationalisation of Northern Rock! Budget: revenues: $1.155 trillion expenditures: $1.237 trillion (2007 est.) Public debt: 43.3% of GDP (2007 est. ) Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...k/print/uk.html Time will tell if UK plc can be saved, but I believe we can pull through IF the government takes action NOW! If not the last thing we should worry about are house prices!!!
  16. Still that kinda of guide price is amazingly low and I'm bullish when it comes to property over the medium to long term! Maybe I should MEW and buy as and investment! The actual sale figure will be very interesting as will Darlings budget!
  17. Yeah, fair enough, point taken, maybe I should just chill a little! Coming to this site is supposed to be a bit of craic and to see others opinions on property, I will try to remember that.
  18. IF my house sale falls through, I plan to keep the house AND contribute towards a standard pension scheme-I'm aiming to have as good a quality of life in my retirement as I have now. I value your opinion and I will constantly keep re-assessing the situation however I do believe if the achievable rent will cover the mortgage then it's a fairly low risk investment and house prices will be higher in 41 years than they were even at the 'peak'. Inflation and the underlying trend back this up but I forgot you don't count inflation as a factor! Anyway have a nice weekend and we can reconvene on Monday morning-half time in the rugger is over.
  19. You seem to forget that 'real' institutional investors (not specu-vestors) play a (fairly sizeable) part in our local housing market, alongside the 'average Joe', as the achievable rent, either paid for by the tenant or the housing executive, will give them a good yield at above the 'affordable' prices some people on this forum are expecting, thus making sound business sense with possible Capital Gains in the future being an added bonus!
  20. I fully agree, because when my EA was seeing that his revenue had dipped and both of us realised that at that time the market was dropping and thus between us (with me gathering part of my info. from this very website-thanks to BB, PP & STR) we decided to reduce my property to below the market value in order to achieve a quick sale. Below this value I would NOT sell but let out as I wouldn't want to sell at the bottom of the market when me and my fiancee can now comfortably afford both our properties, one of which is here and one that is in England (just outside London) even if we couldn't find a tenant! If we do manage to find a tenant, based on local rental incomes, those people will pay off the mortgage on that house for us contributing towards our pension! My EA has worked a lot harder in the past few months than he probably ever has in his life to achieve sales which should be the case cosidering the fees EA's charge, but now I have one EA that I would trust the next time I'm buying or selling a property in Northern Ireland as would two of my familY who are both currently selling and buying!
  21. I am not MD in disguise, and while I may have agreed with some of what he said he did waffle on so much that by the time I finished reading just his post I was ready for a bottle of red, a cigar and some time out! lol! Also I'm not trying to argue with history, all I'm saying is that while history MAY give an indication of future economic cycles, it does not mean that those predicted cycles will actualy occur!?! Predictions from either side are best guesses-they are not fact! They may or may not happen! Time will prove if me and you were either right or wrong! I expect the next HPI quarterly report for Nothern Ireland to report further falls (partly because of inflated asking prices that may not have been achievable even at the peak). In Quarter 3 I expect house prices to stabilize slightly and fully stabilze by Q4, mainly because in some areas prices have already dipped so low that institutional investors have re-entered the market due to the attainable rent exceeding the mortgage outgoings, thus giving a positive yield and a 'real' reason to invest in NI property! Capital gains at this point will just be an added bonus for 'real' investors!
  22. My house is sale agreed and due to complete in a few weeks, however if it does fail through I have everything in place to let it out as that will allow me to carry on with my plans. I'm fortunate in that me and my other half earn fairly decent wages & could cover the mortgage even if we were unfortunate enough not to find a tenant ever. With a tenant I could reshuffle my finances so that the rent would cover the mortgage thus cost me nothing but the 18% CGT if I were to sell. The house would then become my part of my pension-I'm only 24 and by the time I reach retirement age I should be sitting on a nice nest egg! Also how can you say that inflation is irrelevant??? Is that because it may affect your predictions???
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