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championmongo1

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Posts posted by championmongo1

  1. Firstly congratulations Sophia!

    wahayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

    well done sophia

    all we need is WBS and Championmongo1 to complete the hat-trick

    Secondly thanks for the support PP and to everyone for helping me to see 'some' sense! :blink: I did try my best to take it but hey if life was easy everyone could do it! :lol: It will be interesting (and worrying) to see what happens next, i.e. will the BOE bail out of the banks risky mortgages help in the slightest, will N.I. actually encourage inbound investment that actually creates good jobs with decent wages and finally will N.I. ever qualify for a major championship??? :P

    Thirdly, sorry to hear that WBS, hopefully the BOE bail out may help a few potential purchasers to raise sufficient funds to enable you, like myself, to move on. Good luck!

  2. For this to be true, it requires that the worldwide economic situation improves. This link is basically unavoidable unless NI finds an incredible source of money such as that we would have were we to suddenly to find a huge oil reserve! So I would be intrigued to know what facts make you think that the global economic situation is going to undergo this improvement...

    I just think they are going to drop so fast they will hit the bottem sooner than expected here-just like they rose at a ridiculous pace!

  3. So the IMF believe that the UK housing market will follow the American market. But you disagree with them?

    Can I live on your planet? It is so much nicer than the one I live on!

    Sorry to hear about the problems you are having. :(

    My girlfriend didn't think that all this would affect her. Her mortgage resets next year and I sincerely doubt that it will be cheaper :(

    I'm not disagreeing with with the potential drops the IMF have warned of, I just think it is going to happen a whole lot quicker here as N.I. people will have seen what is happening in America, Ireland, Spain, etc. and thus I think that nominal house prices here will fall even more sharply than they rose! Then I suspect they will find a more sustainable level in nominal terms the start of next year but will still be falling for years to come in real terms due to inflation (which I think will continue to rise despite what the official figures may say-anyone bought oil, petrol, bread or milk, etc. recently???)

    I've tried everything to get rid of this damn house-dropped the asking price substantially and ahead of the competition, accepted lower offers, etc. without managing to ever complete. I cannot even change to an investment mortgage as of Thursday as the rates are so damn high on any new mortgages now despite the three IR cuts and come with substantial arrangement fees. The banks fecked the whole housing market up and now average people like me will probably pay the price either financially or personally.

    Still I'm currently on a BOE tracker mortgage (fixed at 0.9% aboce BOE IR) which is a better rate than most people would receive these days. I fear for the rate they may offer your girlfriend next year-that's if they are even still lending money next year! Anyway good luck and hopefully it will work out Ok for her.

  4. I don't think they use to ask for it up front, I suppose they know the house won't sell,so they want your cash in the bank, so they can forget about you

    How else would they pay for their new mini's???

  5. After reading some of the replies in the last few pages I am so thankful that I fully researched the housing market before making a financial decision because the amount of pain and hardship many home owners are going to face over the next few years is going to be scary.

    Not over the next few years, it is realy scary now! (I'm an OO BTW!)

  6. Should we be concerned about the cash injection into property:

    We all know hat happened the last time NI became really confident about the economy - prices rose 56% in a year...

    I think nominal house prices will bottom out here this year as I fear even as an OO (with no 2nd home, BTL etc.) N.I.s property prices will fall even more quickly ( percentage wise) than they rose until they find their true level-wherever that may be, followed by three years flat growth (representing further drops due to inflation.) It is realy worrying times for OO's like me who purchased in May 06 but need to sell now (fiancee no longer in N.I. and getting very upset that I haven't joined her!) My house has been on since June 07, with the price dropped by £20k by September 07 and since then it has been agreed for periods but has never completed! As such I wouldn't worry too much about what is a relatively small cash injection-it may just take away some of the pain of no more co-ownership but no more than that unless this investment encourages further investment which in turn leads to more, higher end well paid jobs!

    edit: P.S. don't pick on me too much BB for my change of heart over the past few weeks! :rolleyes:

  7. You echo my sentiment. Completely. The forum in parts, cheers-up my very busy life at present. More bearishness and scary stories please. Especially on BBC. Great to scare the public. My ideal.

    I just think that in today's internet age and people possibly using this site as their only research it is important to ensure that more realistic views (in my opinion) are also expressed here. My brother, a property investor (i can hear the boos & hisses already :lol: ) for instance, is currently in buying mode as he is able to benefit from other's misfortune. He sticks to his golden rules of property investment which are that the achievable rent should be 1.25X the interest payments on the mortgage based on a 15-25% deposit, in high rental demand areas and only buys houses in decent areas as he feels apartments/poor areas are too risky.

    PS. belated birthday wishes MD!

    EDIT-deposit info. slightly inaccurate.

  8. If we all were to take the very long term view, I think most of us would agree that house prices rise above inflation, given a long enough time scale - there is no argument from me there. History shoes this is the overall trend. Does that make me a bull too then?

    However, I'd argue that in the medium term (say, 7 years), even a savings account will return a better profit than property. Perhaps you disagree with this too and think property will generate more profit than savings?

    I think even long term (say, 15 years), property may not perform that well compared to interest on savings, unless we find ourselves at the top of the next bubble by then.

    Over the next 7 years, I think a high interest savings account will out perform property if you are looking at it from purely a capital gains point of view.

    Over the next 15 years, I think that property will provide the better return, especially if you manage to purchase for 20%+ below the 2007 peak value. This is the medium to long term phase in my opinion.

    Over the next 40 years, I think that property will achieve a much higher return, with this being the long term phase in my opinion.

    Only my opinions from what I have seen and read but as ever DYOR and check your sanity here before exchanging! lol!

  9. Does it make sense to talk bears and bulls on the longer term!? If that was the case, I am bearish for the next 5 years, after 5 years I might be bullish and perhaps 10 after that I will be a bear again. Another 5 yea.... surely it only makes sense to speak of your present views, otherwise almost all of us could be considered as both!!!!

    I have changed my status to neither so that I don't upset the bears out there although I didn't think my status would be such a problem...

  10. Champ... in your signature you have...

    I would just like to point out to you that this question is completely irrelevant to the house price crash. Yes wages may double, but the average income will still remain the average income. The average income will just become £42,000. The cost of living is looking likely to increase (as a proportion of this average income) in the next 20 years as we have to compete for resources against BRIC countries. Prices of essentials are likely to rise much faster than incomes i.e. true inflation.

    To spell it out for you in the simplest terms: What use is it if my wages double - if everything I need to buy costs 4 times as much? You will effectively be poorer!

    You keep stating that your graphs are correct but you fail to mention that during the last crash on the mainland nominal average prices fell by only ~13%, is this not also a little relevant as an indicator? Also it took 38 years for the indicative average wage to increase by something in the region of 13 fold, thus all my signature is trying to show is that in years to come wages will rise, granted along with other costs, but ultimately to a point where even peak prices will be easily accessible. This point I believe will occur in around 10 years. that is my opnion, not fact, but as usual DYOR!

  11. ding, ding! round 2? :lol:

    If 30% from peak value, followed by years of hidden drops due to lower than inflation growth isn't a crash, then what is?! ;) It's certainly not bullish, either way!

    As time has progressed so has my opinion and I do believe we are now in the middle of a crash and thus in the short term I am bearish but medium to long term I remain bullish as I believe things will level off and begin to rise again. Would you prefer me to change status just to reflect my short term view? I don't feel that is necessary as every Tom, Dick & Harry can see that prices are dropping at present!

  12. Bull status eh Champ ;)

    ding ding round 1

    Bull status as I'm thinking of the medium-long term. Short term I think the average price will have dropped a max. of 20% from peak value. :blink: Smaller drops in good areas close to decent jobs (i.e. the nicer parts of Dundonald due the expansion of the hospital) with much larger drops in less desirable areas (i.e. Strabane, were unemployment is high, the suicide rate is high and the average wage is very low :huh: ). I honestly believe prices for decent houses in decent areas will have begun to stabilize by quarter 4 of this year, although no rises for a few years-so a drop in real terms due to inflation but then...prices to rise but only in line or just slightly above inflation untill the next buuble begins in around 7 years!!! Although if we do enter a bad recession then I may have to revise my predictions further as Uk plc and UK house prices go hand in hand and that will affect even our wee country! :unsure:

    Maybe I should change my status depending on each climate but surely it's nice for you all to have a pet bull to play with??? :P

  13. Only a 20% drop eh? That's still over 8 times average income.

    Can you please tell me where the money is going to come from to keep house prices at 8 times average incomes? Really, I would love to know?

    I have added a quote to my signature for you. Though I know you will not understand it. It is just below the Office of National Statistic/Nationwide graph that you do not understand :P

    Funny that, maybe I'm like Jeremy Clarkson and confuse my own opinion with fact! :unsure:

    lol!

  14. How long do you reckon you'll be bearish for? and how bearish are you?

    Depending on how serious the impending crash is will ultimately dictate how most bears will view the market when things have played out.

    We could all be bulls before too long. ;)

    Property has always proven to be a sound investment in the long term and in 41 years when I reach 65, I'm positive prices here will have surpassed even their April 2007 peak! However I really don't think prices will continue to drop at 7.8% per quarter for the next 2-3 years as as been suggested on here! I honestly believe prices for decent houses in decent areas will have stabilized by quarter 4 of this year by which time prices will have dropped 20%-ish from their peak! No rises for a few years though-so a drop in real terms due to inflation but then...the ship will sail again, although a lot more slowly!!!

  15. I think it is all a load of crap!

    Did you know the carbon foot print, of a hybrid eco-friendly car is 2.5 times that of a normal car? And that that extra carbon needed to produce the car, will never be off-set in the operational life of the car?

    So basically, all the fuel you put through a normal car, will produce less carbon, than the carbon needed to manufacture a hybrid car in the first place.

    Load of crap!

    Maybe I am just an extremely cynical person?

    I totally agree with this sentiment. The planet has always had temperature increases and decreases and for 'experts' to say that human actions are speeding up this natural process may be true but on what evidence are they basing it on? They weren't here 1000s of years ago!

  16. The great thing about the Nationwide Quarterly releases is that you can get NI data only - The overall 'UK' picture masks what has been going on here in NI.

    We (NI) are at the forefront of the 'correction' - see the last RICS survey for instance

    edit - remember this poll is for the % change of the last quarter for NI only

    I was talking about NI only! :P Seriously though, when the whole UK market has negative annual growth, will the VI's starting talking about growth over the past decade??? :lol::lol::lol:

  17. So does this mean that the annual rate of increase is now an annual rate of decrease? Reads as if the house prices have been steadily rising for 12 years and its only the rate of increase which is slowing. Meaning that on a year by year basis there has been steady rises.

    5 consecutive months out of 144 can hardly be classed as anything other than a blip. It will take more drops before a true adjustment can be reported.

    Opinions...

    According to Nationwide, although house prices have fallen for five consecutive months, prices are still 1.1% higher than at this point last year. However I suspect when the next figures are out it will an annual rate of decrease will shine through!

    5 out of 144 does look like a blip but if that becomes say 15 in a row out of 154 maybe sentiment will be completely negative? However if we get to say 10 out of 149 and a rise in month 150 maybe positive sentiment will return once more!?!

  18. Just like myself! I think the prices will drop some 3% to 5% this year and, maybe 1% to 2% next year, after which we will see a mighty rebound, fuelled by savvy Ukrainian investment. A media house price of £1,000,000 is just around the corner!

    No, no, no-the median house price will be £2million and not a penny less! lol!

  19. Cheeky!

    Nice one championmongo. Good to see you back here. Your post gave me a chuckle! :lol: Good banter.

    Anyhoo for those that haven't/can't decide which way to vote in this poll I thought that the following attached graph might help you make your minds up.

    house_price_mar08.gif

    Looks like the big dipper at Barry's in Portrush .... or maybe the Pepsi Max Big One in Blackpool?

    Actually on a serious note did I just spot a bull trap in the Nationwide graph between October and November 2007?

    It's funny, your picture says reduced by 64%, now is that referring to the picture size or house prices??? lol!

  20. Just a month ago, these boards were being treaded by such bovine stalwarts such as MD, championmongo1, Mr Mephisto, statinstoinker. Where are they now?

    Helen was churning out bullish articles in the BT? Where has she gone?

    I always enjoyed the bulls on the forum. How else can BB keep his teeth sharp?

    I'm still here, I was just away over Easter with my fiancee! BTW I'm now quite bearish about NI house prices in the short term but bullish about them in the medium-to long term as ever!

    And BB surely two sides of the argument spice up the forum a little!?! :P Or would you all prefer not to have any pet bulls??? :blink:

    I do like the picture though-it's good to see the bull win once in a while! lol! :rolleyes:

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