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House Price Crash Forum

championmongo1

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Everything posted by championmongo1

  1. Firstly congratulations Sophia! Secondly thanks for the support PP and to everyone for helping me to see 'some' sense! I did try my best to take it but hey if life was easy everyone could do it! It will be interesting (and worrying) to see what happens next, i.e. will the BOE bail out of the banks risky mortgages help in the slightest, will N.I. actually encourage inbound investment that actually creates good jobs with decent wages and finally will N.I. ever qualify for a major championship??? Thirdly, sorry to hear that WBS, hopefully the BOE bail out may help a few potential purchasers to raise sufficient funds to enable you, like myself, to move on. Good luck!
  2. I just think they are going to drop so fast they will hit the bottem sooner than expected here-just like they rose at a ridiculous pace!
  3. I'm not disagreeing with with the potential drops the IMF have warned of, I just think it is going to happen a whole lot quicker here as N.I. people will have seen what is happening in America, Ireland, Spain, etc. and thus I think that nominal house prices here will fall even more sharply than they rose! Then I suspect they will find a more sustainable level in nominal terms the start of next year but will still be falling for years to come in real terms due to inflation (which I think will continue to rise despite what the official figures may say-anyone bought oil, petrol, bread or milk, etc. recently???) I've tried everything to get rid of this damn house-dropped the asking price substantially and ahead of the competition, accepted lower offers, etc. without managing to ever complete. I cannot even change to an investment mortgage as of Thursday as the rates are so damn high on any new mortgages now despite the three IR cuts and come with substantial arrangement fees. The banks fecked the whole housing market up and now average people like me will probably pay the price either financially or personally. Still I'm currently on a BOE tracker mortgage (fixed at 0.9% aboce BOE IR) which is a better rate than most people would receive these days. I fear for the rate they may offer your girlfriend next year-that's if they are even still lending money next year! Anyway good luck and hopefully it will work out Ok for her.
  4. How else would they pay for their new mini's???
  5. Not over the next few years, it is realy scary now! (I'm an OO BTW!)
  6. 25,000-is that not roughly the total on propertynews.com?
  7. I think nominal house prices will bottom out here this year as I fear even as an OO (with no 2nd home, BTL etc.) N.I.s property prices will fall even more quickly ( percentage wise) than they rose until they find their true level-wherever that may be, followed by three years flat growth (representing further drops due to inflation.) It is realy worrying times for OO's like me who purchased in May 06 but need to sell now (fiancee no longer in N.I. and getting very upset that I haven't joined her!) My house has been on since June 07, with the price dropped by £20k by September 07 and since then it has been agreed for periods but has never completed! As such I wouldn't worry too much about what is a relatively small cash injection-it may just take away some of the pain of no more co-ownership but no more than that unless this investment encourages further investment which in turn leads to more, higher end well paid jobs! edit: P.S. don't pick on me too much BB for my change of heart over the past few weeks!
  8. Houses that have been for sale for a while with commutable distance of Belfast where the vendor may be desperate and therefore accept a low offer.
  9. I just think that in today's internet age and people possibly using this site as their only research it is important to ensure that more realistic views (in my opinion) are also expressed here. My brother, a property investor (i can hear the boos & hisses already ) for instance, is currently in buying mode as he is able to benefit from other's misfortune. He sticks to his golden rules of property investment which are that the achievable rent should be 1.25X the interest payments on the mortgage based on a 15-25% deposit, in high rental demand areas and only buys houses in decent areas as he feels apartments/poor areas are too risky. PS. belated birthday wishes MD! EDIT-deposit info. slightly inaccurate.
  10. Over the next 7 years, I think a high interest savings account will out perform property if you are looking at it from purely a capital gains point of view. Over the next 15 years, I think that property will provide the better return, especially if you manage to purchase for 20%+ below the 2007 peak value. This is the medium to long term phase in my opinion. Over the next 40 years, I think that property will achieve a much higher return, with this being the long term phase in my opinion. Only my opinions from what I have seen and read but as ever DYOR and check your sanity here before exchanging! lol!
  11. I have changed my status to neither so that I don't upset the bears out there although I didn't think my status would be such a problem...
  12. You keep stating that your graphs are correct but you fail to mention that during the last crash on the mainland nominal average prices fell by only ~13%, is this not also a little relevant as an indicator? Also it took 38 years for the indicative average wage to increase by something in the region of 13 fold, thus all my signature is trying to show is that in years to come wages will rise, granted along with other costs, but ultimately to a point where even peak prices will be easily accessible. This point I believe will occur in around 10 years. that is my opnion, not fact, but as usual DYOR!
  13. As time has progressed so has my opinion and I do believe we are now in the middle of a crash and thus in the short term I am bearish but medium to long term I remain bullish as I believe things will level off and begin to rise again. Would you prefer me to change status just to reflect my short term view? I don't feel that is necessary as every Tom, Dick & Harry can see that prices are dropping at present!
  14. Bull status as I'm thinking of the medium-long term. Short term I think the average price will have dropped a max. of 20% from peak value. Smaller drops in good areas close to decent jobs (i.e. the nicer parts of Dundonald due the expansion of the hospital) with much larger drops in less desirable areas (i.e. Strabane, were unemployment is high, the suicide rate is high and the average wage is very low ). I honestly believe prices for decent houses in decent areas will have begun to stabilize by quarter 4 of this year, although no rises for a few years-so a drop in real terms due to inflation but then...prices to rise but only in line or just slightly above inflation untill the next buuble begins in around 7 years!!! Although if we do enter a bad recession then I may have to revise my predictions further as Uk plc and UK house prices go hand in hand and that will affect even our wee country! Maybe I should change my status depending on each climate but surely it's nice for you all to have a pet bull to play with???
  15. Funny that, maybe I'm like Jeremy Clarkson and confuse my own opinion with fact! lol!
  16. Property has always proven to be a sound investment in the long term and in 41 years when I reach 65, I'm positive prices here will have surpassed even their April 2007 peak! However I really don't think prices will continue to drop at 7.8% per quarter for the next 2-3 years as as been suggested on here! I honestly believe prices for decent houses in decent areas will have stabilized by quarter 4 of this year by which time prices will have dropped 20%-ish from their peak! No rises for a few years though-so a drop in real terms due to inflation but then...the ship will sail again, although a lot more slowly!!!
  17. I totally agree with this sentiment. The planet has always had temperature increases and decreases and for 'experts' to say that human actions are speeding up this natural process may be true but on what evidence are they basing it on? They weren't here 1000s of years ago!
  18. I was talking about NI only! Seriously though, when the whole UK market has negative annual growth, will the VI's starting talking about growth over the past decade???
  19. According to Nationwide, although house prices have fallen for five consecutive months, prices are still 1.1% higher than at this point last year. However I suspect when the next figures are out it will an annual rate of decrease will shine through! 5 out of 144 does look like a blip but if that becomes say 15 in a row out of 154 maybe sentiment will be completely negative? However if we get to say 10 out of 149 and a rise in month 150 maybe positive sentiment will return once more!?!
  20. No, no, no-the median house price will be £2million and not a penny less! lol!
  21. It's funny, your picture says reduced by 64%, now is that referring to the picture size or house prices??? lol!
  22. I voted for 0-5% rise because there were no bigger rise percentages! lol!
  23. I'm still here, I was just away over Easter with my fiancee! BTW I'm now quite bearish about NI house prices in the short term but bullish about them in the medium-to long term as ever! And BB surely two sides of the argument spice up the forum a little!?! Or would you all prefer not to have any pet bulls??? I do like the picture though-it's good to see the bull win once in a while! lol!
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