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House Price Crash Forum


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About Quanty

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  1. saw an ad for this on tv here in the states. apparently it is starting next week. it looks like the Allsops are going international.... http://www.hgtv.ca/ontv/titledetails.aspx?titleid=116183
  2. top monthly halifax falls... 1992Sep -3.031% the last bust 2002Dec -2.245% ...? 1993May -1.653% the last bust 1993Jun -1.282% the last bust 2006Jun -1.241% the next bust ? the world cup ? ... ? 1992Apr -1.201% the last bust 2000Oct -1.199% ...? 1994May -1.168% the last bust 1992Feb -0.854% the last bust 1992Mar -0.808% the last bust
  3. Got to the nationwide data and choose "First Time Buyer House Prices Earnings Ratio" that will yield a graph close to the home page.
  4. surely this article actually means to refer to new buyers rather than the homeowning population in general ? I cannot believe the average mortgage is 125k ? if one also includes those homeowners without a mortgage and those who have bought and held pre-boom ? could it be that they are looking at the average mortgage levels that are taken out today rather than what is being by held by homeowners ? it seems a little misleading to me.... still, for new home buyers to be spending 42% of their income on mortage payments in a "low" interest rate environment, is quite amazing. one cannot fight
  5. Interesting. So do you think that US Mutal funds use stale prices in their NAV calc's for non-US assets in markets that have closed ? So in fact, there is a correlation arbitrage, because you can use the tight correlation between the then trading DOW with the non-trading FTSE to get a better idea of the real price for the stale UK equity prices that the mutuals are holding? One would only have the time between the FTSE close and US mutual's NAV calcuation to trade with and you would also have a fair bit of risk from any stock alpha over the period. Similarly, I wonder how fund of funds calc
  6. Hi RB/SH, I am rather reluctant to join this dicussion, but it is quite interesting so I can't resist. RB, the above statement is correct on one level but may give observers the wrong impression. Yes, indeed, for close to close daily returns, one might observe that the return of the FTSE has some serial correlation with the DOW, ie todays FTSE returns is correlated with "yesterday's" DOW's return. But to imply that this is a causal relationship is far harder to prove. The reason, as you have discussed is the timing of the closes. Today's DOW return actualy contributes to the next days FTSE
  7. it seems people are starting to feel inflation pinch. Dumbing down inflation figures
  8. Compare the stewardship of UK plc with that of Australia. There they have seen the same sustained period of economic prosperity. However, their government has been frugal with spending and pushed through reforms to make more people contribute to the economy. The result ? In the last budget the treasurer had no choice but to make tax cuts across the board. Why ? The government had not just removed the deficit but had over the previous years built up such large surpluses that they decided the only option was to give the money back to the population. They rationalised that during times of prospe
  9. It most certainly is dodgy. If 200k is the Nov 2004 price and 205792 the Nov 2005 benchmark then the annual return is 2.8960% which is a monthly compounded rate of 2.8583%. That's I guess why the people at Rightmove run a website not a bank.
  10. Something's gotta give in America... "And they are investing in the other asset that is no one else's liability - gold. Certainly the Arabs are less inclined to finance American consumers than the Chinese and are more worried, as investors, about the sustainability of the US current account deficit. The US dollar is rising at present - along with gold - because of a short-term arbitrage on cash rates as the Fed continues to push them towards 4.5 per cent, whence chairman Ben Bernanke is likely to stop and sit on the sidelines for a while. Bond yields have also been rising gradually because
  11. This one perhaps ? It looks like it has had a "makeover". Green Lane
  12. I know someone who has one of these G-Wiz Cheap to run (70p or so per charge - free in some carparks), free parking in central london, no congestion charge and no road tax. Top speed 40mph, but in central london thats not an issue. He does get a few strange looks when driving it, but its a good laugh. He is regularly stopped by people wanting to know all about it. One chap on one of those new BMW bikes with a roof knocked on his window and told him, "we are both ahead of our time !"
  13. In an article in today's FT Eurozone faces governance conundrum-Subscription Only Article Paul de Grauwe argues that the US and the Eurozone are using two different monetary policy models. "The practical men in Frankfurt have become the slaves of a theory telling us that the sources of economic cycles are shocks in technology (productivity shocks) and changes in preferences. There is very little the central bank can do about these movements. If it tries too hard to “fine-tune” the economy it will end up with more inflation. Thus, the best thing it can do is to stabilise the price level. This
  14. There was a good Newsight story on interest rates, consumer spending, house prices and consumer debt tonight. Looks like the BBC are getting bearish and don't believe Gordon Browns growth predictions. It was followed up by an interview with the Tory shadow chancellor, George Osborne, and his take on how the conservatives would solve the problem. You can watch the story (including an interview with Roger Bootle) at ... BBC Newnight click on "Latest programme available link" .. should work for the next 24 hours. If you don't want to watch the whole programme the story in question is at 33m
  15. all imho.......5.5% on unsecured credit seems very low. how do you judge the credit quality ? they publish credit categories but these are meaningless without historical data w.r.t to rates of default ? can the average investor evaluate whether a category A basket of 50 loans is worth 1.5% over the base interest rate? me thinks not and they are building a business around the fact. they are trying to get the average person to do the job of a bank in evaluating credit risk. the 1% management charge to zopa is telling as well. can't see how investors could make money in the long run with it. the
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